ECOWAS threatens military intervention
Ecowas bloc threatens Ivory Coast's Gbagbo with force
BBC News
24 December 2010 Last updated at 16:03
The West African regional bloc Ecowas has told incumbent Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo to stand down or expect to face "legitimate force".
The statement came at the end of emergency talks on the crisis sparked by a disputed election last month.
The 15-member bloc and other international bodies have recognised his rival Alassane Ouattara as winner.
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
- university webpage: McGill University
- conflict simulations webpage: PaxSims
Ivory Coast - low profile crisis?
Ron,
You were right to start a thread on the Ivory Coast. I have searched and whilst the term Ivory Coast does appear, SWC has not watched or commented upon the situation there.
I would suggest a couple of reasons for this: we rarely consider UN peacekeeping, let alone other regional peacekeeping (Somalia is an exception); it is in a Francophone country and above all it is in Africa. Would that change here if AFRICOM was to have a role?
Incidentally I would expect France to be the main country wondering WTF, IIRC there was a substantial expatriate community there.
BBC News latest report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12079552
davidbfpo
Côte d'Ivoire
Greetings from a very snowy Estonia !
David, using the French version... Côte d'Ivoire we do get a few hits, but then this so-labeled LIC deserves its own thread.
Hmmm, Simple coincidence following the (then) president's 18 December order that UN and French troops leave the country and opposition to renew their mandate ?
Gbagbo Orders UN, French Troops Out
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Would be long to put all the references, especially as most material I have is in French but let say things do not look good.
1) Bagbo asked the UN and French troops to leave,
2) Outara asked the Un to stay
3) UN responded positively to Outara demand
4) French and German governments advised their citizen to leave Ivory Cost
5) Bagbo declared he will fight up to the last cartridge to liberate Ivory Cost…
6) US and UN confirmed that Bagbo sent his death squad and killed over 200 people since in power.
7) 14000 Ivorian fled Ivory Coast to Liberia according to UNHCR
What next?
Civil war restarts or a foreign military intervention to install Outara in power?
That’s the 2 worst case scenarios ever, for Ivory Coast and for the whole continent.
What’s happening in Ivory Coast is important for sub Saharan Africa because it can open the road to a new African model based on legality and freedom of the people to choose their future. Or it can be the final grave of any changes on that continent.
The role of personality
Maybe helpful, an article on Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent President who is resisting calls to stand down after the national election:http://www.guardian.co.uk/theobserve...bo-david-smith
davidbfpo
David:Originally Posted by davidbfpo
The most interesting quote in that story is this one by Richard Dowden of the Royal African Society regarding Mr. Gbagbo and company "These are all smart, Sorbonne-educated, sophisticated international people, so I don't know how they think they can get away with this. If it was a jumped-up sergeant major or colonel who had never been outside the country, it would be easier to understand."
That may or may not say something about Mr. Gbagbo and his people but it speaks volumes as to how Mr. Dowden at least, can let a diploma confuse him about human nature.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Hey Carl,
Remember the term WAWA ? There are certainly hundreds of versions, but essentially, you can take (educate if you will) the man out of WAWA, but you can't take WAWA out of the man.
I was sending on average 70 Zairois a year to NCO and Officer courses. Some as much as a year in the States. Would have thought a little of the better life and an education would have changed things. Nope, back to the former way of doing business.
American and European expats who have lived in West Africa can occasionally be heard to utter in complete frustration "West Africa Wins Again!". Or "Wawa"! It's a sort of Murphy's Law writ large for the endless, and often bureaucratic, obstacles that can impede every step forward.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
This is all predictable. A quick timeline.
Arising from the Kenyan presidential election, 2007 incumbent president Kibaki fiddles the election enough to hang onto power as president while Odinga gets offered the post of Prime Minister (and maybe a Swiss bank account) to shut him up.
Mugabe likes this idea. Zimbabwe 2008 - the incumbent president Mugabe fiddles the election and (supported by the military) refuses to stand down. Following the Kenyan example he negotiates a settlement where he and his miklitary thugs retain power while MDC-T's Tsvangirai is offered the post of Prime Minister (and maybe a Swiss bank account) to shut him up.
Now we have Ivory Coast and now following the familiar fashion (like out of Don McLeans American Pie) "the marching band refused to yield" ... but (surprise surprise) the incumbent president says he is willing to negotiate - sound familiar?
Not sure the threat of military force by ECOWAS will achieve anything more than even more chaos and the normal raping, looting and pillaging (Remember Sierra Leone and Liberia.
It is time to stop pussy-footing around and apply JMA's 3-Cruise-Missile-Option.
With some sections of the army wavering (it appears) the first missile targets the barracks of the most loyal unit to Gbagbo - do it now, tomorrow.
The second with 12 hours warning targets the current location of Gbagbo himself - he won't be there but will get the message strength 5.
Thereafter the word is put out that there's a $1m for the person who provides Gbagbo's location as a target for the third missile.
I think you will find Gbagbo will agree to discussing the terms of his handing over power to the elected president. This could also act as a rehearsal for the upcoming Zimbabwe elections - those are bound to be a lot of fun too.
JMA, I sure hope you don't purchase your stuff from Russia. The last few I've seen in Georgia don't work
I think you and M-A have some strong points herein. Not just Zimbabwe but the DRC as well. If we screw this election up, no African alive will feel threatened by the West waving their big stick... Ever again.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
JMA,
The cruiser missile solution is not a good solution, despite the fact that I like the idea.
The CEDAO has warned Bagbo that they will use force to support Outtara and install legitimate power in Ivory Coast. That's the solution. A stinky one but still, the solution. On one point Bagbo is right, it's time for the western powers to withdraw from direct intervention in african politic. And for the African Nations to stand for democracy, legitimacy through vote and legality.
I know, it sounds weird, especially coming from some of them. But yes, it's time for a change and to stop the Africa is different so it is legitimate that african people have dictators, because we are different. Yes africa is different but that does not apply to how to access to power.
A missile coming from a US or what ever western nation on Bagbo presidential palace and guard will only make him a martyr. And ultimately reinforce the fact that crazy dictators are legitimately in power on that continent.
An act by the African Nations will put a stone on a long road for change.
And yes Stan, DRC but also Rwanda, Uganda, South Sudan... are to come. (And most probably others that I forget, shouldn't they have soon elections in Liberia, Sierra Leone...).
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