Ivory Coast

[Stan]

I see four questions of paramount importance prior to commitment and intervention:

What is our ability, with partner forces, to intervene?

IMO the time to act effectively is long over. But, as some have pointed out, we are not capable of responding before an upheaval or civil war becomes reality. Since we somehow decided that the Ivory Coast needed democracy and the ability to freely vote for whomever, we should have been in the hot seat ready to cover our words of wisdom with firepower. A sad disconnect from what I believe is State’s ultimate goal with foreign relations and our wiliness to get more involved when the goal has no backup plan for the “what ifs”.

What vital interests are contained within Ivory Coast?

We barely have any strategic interests other than coffee and cocoa. Well, there is that slight problem with jamming democracy down their throats with no balls to back up our language. Sorry, I don’t have a clear answer to that one.

What opportunity is there to increase the quality of life to the people of Ivory Coast given the current situation?

Significant depending on our budget: We could target all the trends or indicators of quality of life such as infant mortality, GDP and literacy, but the Ivory Coast is similar to typical Sub-Saharan State and success rates are limited. If we’re ready for a decade of funding and policing, then the programs would have a slight chance. Doesn't this question belong with the first such as: Why are we getting involved and what is our exit strategy?

What is the best outcome of intervention?

A bleak outlook - Years of PKO with the UN. We blew the chance to save a lot of people and preclude a humanitarian crisis that will ultimately cost us much more. A least we don't have to demine the place

If one or more of these questions cannot be answered to the satisfaction of intervening parties risks must be weighed with rewards. If the default answer is genocide prevention, than what elevates this to a status above genocide activites where we did not intervene? I do not see satisfactory answers yet to any of these questions.

I didn’t then nor now see genocide in its true sense taking place in the Ivory Coast, but I do see an endless civil war and humanitarian effort. Is the G word the only way to get the West moving effectively in Africa ? We already witnessed what happens when we sit back and watch the kettle boil over - bad idea !