I sometimes wonder why people ask "why doesn't somebody do something" when they really mean "why don't the Americans do something".
Fiddling while Rome burns is indeed silly... if you're Roman, or the emperor of Rome. Last I looked the US was not the emperor of the Ivory Coast.
I may have spoken precipitously on Anglophone nations ignoring the situations...
Britain is now stating that it would support an intervention on a U.N. mandate, thought here's nothing specifying whether Britain has expressed any intent to provide material support, nor any differentiation between responses to a Chapter 6 v Chapter 7 mandate- the latter would seem to me to be necessary.
The rhetoric is ramping up too. Gbagbo is now accusing the U.N. of having fired on civilians, and is insisting U.N. forces leave.
He is the one that has the private security forces that are trigger happy and will not get paid.Originally Posted by Brihard
Ivory Coast
I suspect that Goodluck Johnathan in Nigeria has little appetite any longer for imposing the West's solution to cure African election problems with violence after the recent bombings of the military barracks in Abuja. The election battle in Nigeria is fast becoming a mirror of the Ivoirian, pitting a Muslim North against a Christian South. I think you might be surprised to find that there are several African governments, led by Angola, who may be willing to make money available to Gbagbo until he can get back the assets frozen by the French. Gbagbo doesn't have to do very much to stay in power. His power is strong in the South and, if he can escape the clutches of the West trying to freeze his assets, he has no reason to change his course, Ouattara is stuck in enemy territory and kept in business by the UN. Soon, after the Sudan elections and other upcoming events in Africa, the UN will lose interest in forcing an indigestible solution on an intractable problem.
Actually, what I like with the brits in africa is that if they push for a military intervention: they do not want to send troops. So if they say they want to participate, it's almost certain it will not happen.
Concernng the problematic of Muslim and Christians raised by OCNUS, it is true that the situation ischanging at the momment. There is a strong anti muslim push in sub-saharian africa at the momment. Just as there is a strong muslim push which coincide with the long term presence of Pakistany troops in man UN missions. (who said they did train some stupid idiotic armed groups leaders????).
But I remain septic on the capacity of Nigeria to play the lone ranger and fox up even US interrest.
By the way, the French are the one who did conduct most of the military interventions in Africa. The last US military (official) presence in africa lead to a Hollywood movie and I'm not sure that will happen again before long time.
Nt saying it should happen butI do think that there is room for a sub-saharian african power... let say South africa...
This is one of the best opportunities for the African Union to involve itself in resolving this crisis. ECOWAS could always involve troops from the rest of Africa, with French logistical support, to force Gbagbo out of power. One of the personally interesting points for me is whether ECOWAS would try to initiate a ceasefire or actively support Outtuara's side in any future conflict?
Bagbo seems to have made a huge mistake:
Lanny Davis the pro US lobbyist resigned because Bagbo has refused to take a phone call from the White House and supposedly from the President him self.
Link in French:
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/69/20110101...d-b11dcaf.html
And in American,
Lobbyist Quits Job With Ivory Coast Leader;
and Gbagbo wants his $$ back, Ivory Coast asks lobbyist for $200,000 back.
Perhaps, the two late octogenarian French "legal beagles" (or is it "legal poodles" ?) can sue poor old Lanny in their spare time.
Cheers
Mike
I've been told that Gbagbo didn't take a call from Obama because he thought it would be better to refuse the call than to say 'No' to Obama who was going to press for a joint tenancy of the Presidency a la Kenya. The role of Susan Rice in this business should not be overlooked. She was widely detested in Africa for her partisanship in favour of Museveni and Kagame. She is a dangerous ideologue with a direct line to Obama. I was with Kabila I when Rice arrived in Kinshasa after a public toasting and feting of Kagame in Kigali. Kabila welcomed Susan Rice at the airport by saying "I welcome you to Kinshasa as the ambassador from Rwanda". There are many impediments in the effort to get a reasoned position in Foggy Bottom.
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