Ivory Coast

[davidbfpo]

I know where the Ivory Coast is, but until a moment ago had little idea what exactly the UN deployment means. Taken with some reservations, as they are UN official documents.

First a map of the military and police deployments:http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/dpko/unoci.pdf and the international composition, alas without details:http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/mi...ci/facts.shtml

Most of those listed under military personnel are military observers, not formed units.

Note in Abidjan, the current focus, the UN military come from Bangladesh, Jordan and Togo. IIRC only the Jordanians have a reputation for steadfastness - a legacy of Bosnia. Stan no doubt will remind us what the Bangladeshi unit did in Rwanda.

The French have 800 soldiers in country now, from one press report and I'd expect them to be in the capital too - anxiously watching over the remaining French nationals (maybe 12k).

[Marshal Murat]

Ivory Coast UN ambassador warns of genocide risk

"We think it's unacceptable. Thus, one of the messages I try to get across during the conversations I have conducted so far, is [that] we are on the brink of genocide."

Mr Bamba said some houses had been marked according to the residents' tribal background, and that he was concerned about what could happen next.

I think this is an interesting claim, something that is either correct, or simply an attempt to link Ivory Coast to Rwanda?

[Stan]

Hmmm, with the planned Ville Mort passing without participation (ala Zairois) and the UN threats postponed until 03 JAN, we now have...

Renowned French lawyers come to Gbagbo's aid

Two famous French lawyers -- one of them best known for defending Nazi Klaus Barbie -- came to Ivory Coast on Thursday to support isolated strongman Laurent Gbagbo.

[jmm99]

for the job, but my youth and inexperience cut against me. Rats !

Cheers

Mike

[Brihard]

I'm very much a proponent of intervention on humanitarian grounds / R2P. I'd like to see someone step up and do something in this case, because like most of the rest of the dog's breakfast that is Africa, this seems to have serious potential to quickly explode into a humanitarian catastrophe.

I'm concerned that there may be no parties with all three of the requisites of *efficacy*; the will, means, and credibility to do this. Most of the Anglophone countries won't give a fart about C. d'I. France typically is very self interested in these instances, and I doubt their intervention will extend much past protecting their own citizens. France is increasingly unstable politically, and any domestic perception that France is again engaging in colonial games (accurate or not) will inflame other problems they have.

A coterie of other African nations would likely have the greatest *credibility* in intervening, but frankly I've no trust that a sufficient proportion of them would be operating in good faith, and the professionalism of those forces is in doubt. I've no doubt that they would be willing to use violence to get their way, but probably to such an extreme that the credibility of the intervention would be affected- the other side of the pendulum swing from our (colective western) failure in Rwanda.

It would be great to see Africans sorting out Africa with some westerners helping out (comms, logistics, some boots on the ground, etc), but frankly I've lost most of my optimism about the continent's ability to handle its own affairs effectively... I fear that we're going to get to sit on the sidelines of something awful again, and our respective governments will collectively wring their hands and ask imploringly why somebody doesn't do something?

When people are fleeing *to* Liberia, things are pretty bad.

[JMA]

... I fear that we're going to get to sit on the sidelines of something awful again, and our respective governments will collectively wring their hands and ask imploringly why somebody doesn't do something

Sadly the time for preemptive action has almost past...

[AdamG]

Sadly the time for preemptive action has almost past...

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
http://www.online-literature.com/poe/36/

[CloseDanger]

Sadly the time for preemptive action has almost past...

It's kind of a big thing. Focus on the Referendum on the Southern Succession January 9th. See this overshadow the coming split in Nigeria and CAR. Draw a line in the sand so to speak.

Besides, we froze dudes bank account in the Ivory Coast and grounded his plane. No cash, just bullets. So he is trying to ramp up some cross fire to escape? Ha!

[Dayuhan]

I sometimes wonder why people ask "why doesn't somebody do something" when they really mean "why don't the Americans do something".

Fiddling while Rome burns is indeed silly... if you're Roman, or the emperor of Rome. Last I looked the US was not the emperor of the Ivory Coast.

[Bob's World]

When the legitimacy of government falls into question it makes any country ripe for unrest. Even in the US where we have tremendous (though I fear declining) popular faith in the system, it has been challenges of legitimacy that have created the greatest public uproar; first with the "Hanging Chads" in the Bush-Gore election, and then currently with questions over President Obama's birth certificate.

As countries becomes less stable and more troubled in general, such concerns are amplified.

I don't know much about the facts of the situation in general in the Ivory Coast, or of the recent events in particular, but I would look for indicators for public perceptions of the following factors in making my assessment:

1. Populace perceptions of their liberty (as measured based upon their historic, cultural expectations).
2. Populace perceptions of the legitimacy of their government. (recognition of its right to government them. what foreign bodies think is moot)
3.. Perceptions of justice. (how they feel about the application of the rule of law)
4. Perceptions of respect and equity (do any significant groups feel they are treated unfairly as a matter of some status)
5. And lastly I'd look at their perceptions of their ability to legally effect changes in the system.

We need to learn to look beyond our own perceptions of the situation or of the leaders on either side of the equation that emerge. It is too easy to let biases distract from clear eyed assessments of the critical drivers behind such movements.

Sometimes such things are "just" a play for power or wealth, and are not supported by a broad popular base of concern. Or, as often, the popular base of concern exists, but the small group playing for power or wealth are merely leveraging that for their own selfish gains.

My suspicion is that this is just one more chapter in what is going to be a long book of chaotic revolutions and evolutions of governance to emerge for the disruptive influences of western colonialism. I don't believe there are any shortcuts or quick fixes so long as the current borders and concepts of each being a sovereign state as defined by some European colonial body persist. Interventions may mitigate violence, but they typically ignore the core drivers of such conflicts and instability.

[M-A Lagrange]

I do not want to play the cassandra but according to some IC specialist the Outtara forces offensive has been planed by US and/or French military with logistical support from Nigeria and Burkina Faso.

Sure visible boots on the ground are not a solution.

[Stan]

I do not want to play the cassandra but according to some IC specialist the Outtara forces offensive has been planed by US and/or French military with logistical support from Nigeria and Burkina Faso.

M-A,
We both said that would be happening and that once again means, we the West, have another puppet for say the next 10 years or so

African solutions with Western initiatives and money (to African problems)