Page 5 of 14 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast
Results 81 to 100 of 277

Thread: Ivory Coast

  1. #81
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    What ever you thought about (assassination, cruiser missile…) it’s too late.
    Outtara supporters have decided to fight back. This, according to my academic and field knowledge, is called civil wars or at least the premises.
    Absolutely... its called the window of opportunity... and it has now passed.

    Now its time to look at plan B... if they have one.

    If there is one thing all politicians of all nations have a proven ability for is... dithering.

    It would be hilarious if the price to be paid down the line was not the lives and livelihoods of the people of Ivory Coast.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12170838

    In French speaking media, the body count is already at 4 to 5 policemen. According to some interviews, population in pro Outtara part of the city where it is happening said: they come to kill us why should we not defend our selves…

    And frankly, why should they not defend their selves?
    Defend themselves indeed. Then the next step is "why wait for them to come for us, lets take the war to them." Then those in the North say "we should go to the assistance of our brothers and sisters in the South before they are butchered." And so on and so forth...

  2. #82
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    The simple point I'm trying to make is that both decision and method are subject to legal and political constraints.

    I also have to wonder if removing a leader will necessarily solve the problem. If we blow up Gbagbo, does Outtara peacefully become President? Or does the other fruitcake, Charlie B. Goode or whatever his name is, lead the mob in storming the Golf Hotel and sending Outtara back north in 57 separate mason jars?

    I'm there too... not leftist nor lawyers, the media or public opinion. Not my problem. Of course we're also not elected officials and we don't have our fingers on the cruise missile button. The people who are in that position have to deal with constraints that do not apply to you and me.

    Congress thought there was one. You and I may or may not agree, but they decide. I don't see them, or Obama, or anyone, deciding to send missiles to the Ivory Coast.

    If a civil war is really that imminent, removing one individual is as likely to set it off as to stop it... and again, decisions to "remove" an individual are in the real world subject to legal and political constraint. Those constraints can be overcome if it's something we really, really want to do... but we don't.

    I've had occasional fantasies about solving problems with high explosives myself. Easy to think about, but since we all know it isn't going to happen, why bother discussing it?

    The calculation of humanitarian aid vs intervention is not just based on money. Aid makes us feel good, intervention makes us feel bad. Politicians like their constituents to feel good.

    That's worked out ever so well in the past... or hasn't it? Saying it with missiles isn't exactly "behind the scenes", and there's a serious deficit of plausible deniability there. Political costs, political benefits.
    I'm going to walk away from this ###-for-tat exchange as I have made my point and you have challenged that... but as per usual you offer no solution. If you have a solution please present it.

  3. #83
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,343

    Default Background reading or how the media misrepresent the causes of conflict

    The full title The 'problem' with Côte d’Ivoire: how the media misrepresent the causes of conflict'.

    Opening paragraph:
    Much media coverage of conflict in the Ivory Coast relies on a familiar explanation of Africa's wars - that they stem from immutable tribal and sectarian differences. Despite religious and ethnic faultlines, conflict in the Ivory Coast is above all political, argues Patrick Meehan.
    Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...es-of-conflict

    Not my area, but I found it a good read.
    davidbfpo

  4. #84
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17° 5' 11N, Longitude 120° 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I'm going to walk away from this ###-for-tat exchange as I have made my point and you have challenged that... but as per usual you offer no solution. If you have a solution please present it.
    I have not the capacity, responsibility, or right to solve the problems of the Ivory Coast. Neither has the United States.

    If you want to solve them, go right ahead, just leave us out of it... and please recall that "solutions" beginning with "somebody ought to..." or "we ought to..." mean absolutely nothing unless you specify who "somebody" or "we" will actually be.

  5. #85
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I have not the capacity, responsibility, or right to solve the problems of the Ivory Coast. Neither has the United States.

    If you want to solve them, go right ahead, just leave us out of it... and please recall that "solutions" beginning with "somebody ought to..." or "we ought to..." mean absolutely nothing unless you specify who "somebody" or "we" will actually be.
    The problem I have with your position is that you as an individual attempt to speak on behalf of the whole of the United States. You are not the President so you should end statements such as "Neither has the United States" with the standard IMHO (in my honest opinion).

    When I state that problems should be addressed (that is a personal opinion) and you immediately assume that the call has gone out for the US to help, not so. Not in Africa anyway.

    But read through this Humanitarian Military Intervention in Africa and unless this has changed greatly since it is perhaps you who is out in left field?
    Last edited by JMA; 01-15-2011 at 07:20 AM.

  6. #86
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    The full title The 'problem' with Côte d’Ivoire: how the media misrepresent the causes of conflict'.

    Opening paragraph:

    Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...es-of-conflict

    Not my area, but I found it a good read.
    The supposition that all Africa's problems can be traced to the World Bank/IMF's structural adjustment programmes is merely the current left wing nonsense.

    If only the problems of Africa were as simple as that.

    The simple problem (to all but the most intellectually challenged) is that you can't build a robust economy on subsistence based agriculture on small family plots with what passes for expertise being passed from father to son and with or without a cash mono-crop (such as Cocao) which is vulnerable to fluctuations (and manipulation) on the world market. Forgetaboutit... can't be done.

    Now toss into the mix the ballooning populations and the pressure on land with a potentially explosive ethnic/religious mix and you get what you see in Africa today.
    Last edited by JMA; 01-15-2011 at 08:10 AM.

  7. #87
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    38

    Default Thoughts from a governance perspective

    Dear all,
    These ideas on the possible roots of Cote d'Ivoire's crisis are from an academic book that trys to figure out the nature of government and the state in Africa.

    Would very much appreciate your thoughts:
    Colin

    Chabal & Daloz discuss three potential alternate models of weak state political governance in their 1999 book ‘Africa Works: Disorder as Political Instrument.’ These are a neo-patrimonial model derived directly from Weberian sociology, the hybrid state perspective, and the ‘paradigm of the transplanted state.’

    Chabal and Daloz argue that from the perspective of the neo-patrimonial model of governance, the African state is both illusory and substantial. ‘It is illusory because its modus operandi is essentially informal, the rule of law is feebly enforced and the ability to implement public policy remains most limited. It is substantial because its control is the ultimate prize for political elites: indeed, it is the chief instrument of patrimonialism.’ Chabal and Daloz say the neo-patrimonial model’s two main advantages are that it accounts for the overlapping of the public and private spheres, and that it helps to explains in which ways the operation of the political system is no longer entirely traditional. The outward façade conforms to Western standards while the actual workings ‘derive from patrimonial dynamics.’

    The hybrid state perspective ‘focuses on the effects for politics of the mixing of the Western norms introduced under colonial rule and the values inherent to African social systems.’ Chabal and Daloz say that the hybrid state stresses the re-appropriation and successful adaptation of the Western model of the state to the African context. Within the fixed boundaries referred to by Herbst, mentioned in the literature review chapter, the African state has been reshaped according to local political practices. The state is then used as an instrument of ‘primitive accumulation’ achieved through the monopoly seizure of the means of production by the political elites.

    The ‘paradigm of the transplanted state,’ Chabal and Daloz note, is more accurately a paradigm conceptualizing the rejection of the transplanted state. The wholesale transfer of the Western state to Africa, they say, has failed very much because of cultural factors. The development of the modern Western European state, itself the outcome of a particular development path, cannot be simply transported to a wholly different socio-cultural setting. Both the institutions and the trappings of the Western state acquire entirely different meanings and modes of operation outside their original Western European habitat. The transplanted state, therefore is generically distinct, and large parts of the original model are discarded or cease to function.

    Chabal and Daloz advance their own model, the political instrumentalization of disorder, as preferable to any of the other three options when analyzing African states. They emphasize the ‘profit to be found in the weak institutionalization of political practices.’ In other words, elites find it advantageous when the state is only allowed a certain degree of effectiveness. Political elites gain from a weak state because it allows them to maximize their political and economic returns. Chabal and Daloz say that the state is both ‘vacuous’ and ‘ineffectual.’ This has profound implications for SSR and other types of governance efforts that are commenced by Western donor states. Chabal and Daloz rhetorically ask why African political elites should dismantle a political system which advantages them so much. ‘The notion that politicians, bureaucrats, or military chiefs should be the servants of the state simply does not make sense.’

    Chabal and Daloz note however that regarding Africa, the neo-patrimonial model is useful only if it is made clear that colonial administrative penetration only went so far. Colonial administrators, they argue, ‘never managed to overcome the strongly instrumental and personalized characteristics of ‘traditional’ African administration.’ Chabal and Daloz’s warning about not overcoming strongly instrumental and personalized characteristics of traditional administration, however, may also be applicable to the tribal nature of governance in Afghanistan and Iraq.

  8. #88
    Banned
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    9

    Default Ivory Coast Impasse

    Perhaps I can suggest a different analysis of the impasse in the Ivory Coast
    http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish...ry-Coast.shtml

  9. #89
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Regrettable, everything at the link sounds very much like any African country I have ever lived and worked in. I don't see the uniqueness of the Côte d'Ivoire from any other former colony. What I do see is very similar problems once the Africans were left to their own demise and thought they were playing in the big leagues with hungry Western powers.

    These new Cabinet ministers demanded large salaries, cars and jobs in their ministries for their friends and families. No notion of competence or training was used in the selection of the new Cabinet ministers. Only that they were chosen by the rebel bands. In fact, few actually showed up to work. The civil administration of the country was incoherent and conflicted as the national interest took second place to the demands of rival Cabinet ministers.
    They quickly learned how to amass wealth and power and once that taste was had, shy of death, little was going to change their path.

    Without reference to a Constitution, government is illegitimate and there is no agreed common weal. And, if for some reason, sovereignty is tainted or diluted, democracy cannot function in anything but a trivial manner. These are all descriptors of the political situation in the Ivory Coast.
    I need help with this passage please. Exactly where is this statement not true in nearly all of Africa, and what makes it so unique to the Ivory Coast? I couldn't call the Ivorian Constitution legit now any more than I could 15 years ago. I do recall however that Abidjan was like heaven compared to where I had been. Many said the same for Zaire under Belgian rule.

    There have been many observers who have noted that the Ivory Coast military remains loyal to President Gbagbo. This is not really surprising as each soldier and officer took an oath which pledges them to the defence of the Constitution.
    Defending the Constitution ? Does anyone actually believe that ? Watch what happens when their salaries are cut or devaluated.

    A vital dimension to this conflict is the fact that most of the Ivory Coast population is under 26 years of age. There is a great gap between the population and the group of geriatrics which run the political structures in the country.
    Again, this applies to nearly any of the dictatorships in Africa. The old farts will hang on to the bitter end, or until the cash runs out.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  10. #90
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default While all eyes are on the Arab world...

    ... once again - surprise, surprise - the attempts at a negotiated settlement are failing. (when will they ever learn)

    The Ivory Coast now slides towards civil war as the opportunity for swift, violent action has passed.

    Fighting Spreads as Ivory Coast Ceasefire Collapses

    BTW (anyone) has the humanitarian cost passed that of a single cruise missile yet?


    For Stan, can you just imagine the fun time these two guys are having?

    2 UN employees kidnapped by dangerous Young Patriot militia in Ivory Coast

  11. #91
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    ... once again - surprise, surprise - the attempts at a negotiated settlement are failing. (when will they ever learn)

    The Ivory Coast now slides towards civil war as the opportunity for swift, violent action has passed.

    Fighting Spreads as Ivory Coast Ceasefire Collapses

    BTW (anyone) has the humanitarian cost passed that of a single cruise missile yet?


    For Stan, can you just imagine the fun time these two guys are having?

    2 UN employees kidnapped by dangerous Young Patriot militia in Ivory Coast
    JMA,
    I understand they are Ukrainians. The young patriots will have their hands full with these guys
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  12. #92
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    JMA,
    I understand they are Ukrainians. The young patriots will have their hands full with these guys
    So was Gaddifi's "nurse". Seems he had his hands full also


  13. #93
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    So was Gaddifi's "nurse". Seems he had his hands full also
    Hey, I just saw her on the Estonian news and she has gained a few pounds since that photo

    Galyna Kolotnytska, a Gaddafi confidante, arrived in Kiev on a Ukrainian defence ministry aircraft that evacuated 185 people

    Ukrainian females are ... Whoa Nellie ! But, I suspect, the Ukranians in captivity are of the male version and will be trouble.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  14. #94
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    1,665

    Default

    Already released.

  15. #95
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default The slide continues...

    Ivory Coast headed for civil war

    Stating the obvious...

    A spasm of deadly violence in Ivory Coast, including the killings of six women who were shot Thursday as they demanded that the country's intransigent president step down, points to an irreversible slide back into civil war in the West African country, analysts say.
    but the real problem lies here...

    Ouattara controls the central bank, but operates out of a hotel. Gbagbo controls the army, but is facing difficulties paying the troops.
    Now Stan will tell you what happens when the military stop being paid and how they get money...

  16. #96
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Now Stan will tell you what happens when the military stop being paid and how they get money...
    JMA,
    Do you mean the chain of events that lead to a full blown civil war, or, what basically happens on payday with a social upheaval

    The President starts by buying tons of paper money from Germany (the money being worthless compared to the printing and transportation costs), flies it directly to the Presidential palace where several pallets are off-loaded and then on to the capital where the base commanders are instructed to divi out the cash.

    The base commanders have several parties and spend half the wages before giving their lieutenants the remainder. They in turn have parties and give the remainder to the sergeants. At that point, little is left to the armed and hungry troops.

    It’s now about the 5th of the month.

    A 114 command post rolls up in front of the bank and unceremoniously unloads a box .50 cal on the bank. The French Ambassador witnesses the entire event from the 7th floor across the street and the gunner wheels the M2 around and sprays the building with a new box of .50. The Ambassador’s body guard drops to the floor and the Ambassador takes a round through the chest and dies before hitting the carpet. (Days later the French govt would apologize for the Ambassador being in the wrong place at the wrong time).

    Meanwhile across the boulevard at the USA Embassy a M151 jeep screams by and from my window I hear “ding.. ding.. ding metallic sound” bouncing over the fence into the courtyard and, as I count “one thousand one, one thousand two… I hit the carpet and BOOM, an M62 goes high order next to my boss’ car.

    The troops armed with grenades and M16A1s go into the city and look for food, drink and women (without money).

    Figure the rest out for yourself.

    Scenario two: There is no payday and the base commander commandeers vehicles, soldiers and weapons, and, an upheaval starts from the military base to where the foreigners live.

    This scenario is dependent on how much booze and food there is along the way. We won’t discuss what happens to women from ages 12 to 80 along the way…. Safe bet for calculating armageddon was 3 to 4 days for an evacuation of all foreigners.

    Once you’ve done this 4 times, it actually gets easier to gauge how much time and luck you have.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  17. #97
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    JMA,
    Do you mean the chain of events that lead to a full blown civil war, or, what basically happens on payday with a social upheaval

    The President starts by buying tons of paper money from Germany (the money being worthless compared to the printing and transportation costs), flies it directly to the Presidential palace where several pallets are off-loaded and then on to the capital where the base commanders are instructed to divi out the cash.

    The base commanders have several parties and spend half the wages before giving their lieutenants the remainder. They in turn have parties and give the remainder to the sergeants. At that point, little is left to the armed and hungry troops.

    It’s now about the 5th of the month.

    A 114 command post rolls up in front of the bank and unceremoniously unloads a box .50 cal on the bank. The French Ambassador witnesses the entire event from the 7th floor across the street and the gunner wheels the M2 around and sprays the building with a new box of .50. The Ambassador’s body guard drops to the floor and the Ambassador takes a round through the chest and dies before hitting the carpet. (Days later the French govt would apologize for the Ambassador being in the wrong place at the wrong time).

    Meanwhile across the boulevard at the USA Embassy a M151 jeep screams by and from my window I hear “ding.. ding.. ding metallic sound” bouncing over the fence into the courtyard and, as I count “one thousand one, one thousand two… I hit the carpet and BOOM, an M62 goes high order next to my boss’ car.

    The troops armed with grenades and M16A1s go into the city and look for food, drink and women (without money).

    Figure the rest out for yourself.

    Scenario two: There is no payday and the base commander commandeers vehicles, soldiers and weapons, and, an upheaval starts from the military base to where the foreigners live.

    This scenario is dependent on how much booze and food there is along the way. We won’t discuss what happens to women from ages 12 to 80 along the way…. Safe bet for calculating armageddon was 3 to 4 days for an evacuation of all foreigners.

    Once you’ve done this 4 times, it actually gets easier to gauge how much time and luck you have.
    Exactly... thank you.

  18. #98
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default No national interest?

    435 dead, 500,000 displaced.

    Still nothing to worry about... until the price of chocolate goes up that is...

  19. #99
    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    In Barsoom, as a fact!
    Posts
    976

    Default

    JMA:

    Don't worry, actually some people do care about what's going on there.
    http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/public...e-divoire.aspx

    Lybia is apparently more sexy () but the crisis in Ivory Coast is a precedent in Africa and specially concerning elections management. 2011 gonna be a busy year.

  20. #100
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    JMA:

    Don't worry, actually some people do care about what's going on there.
    http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/public...e-divoire.aspx

    Lybia is apparently more sexy () but the crisis in Ivory Coast is a precedent in Africa and specially concerning elections management. 2011 gonna be a busy year.
    ...but will there be any takers?

    The opportunity for a low effort/risk exercise has passed. But there is still time for a demonstration of sincerity of some magnitude on the military units loyal to Gbagbo. The problem is that there are now gangs of thugs roaming the streets looking for mischief and are difficult to target other than with a suitable gunship ... or six.
    Last edited by JMA; 03-23-2011 at 06:19 AM.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 6
    Last Post: 08-06-2016, 05:21 PM
  2. The Office of Strategic Services in WWII
    By phil b in forum Historians
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 01-21-2009, 08:26 PM
  3. Graduates Revive Intelligence Role for Coast Guard
    By Jedburgh in forum Intelligence
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-30-2008, 01:32 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •