Ivory Coast

[Stan]

In fact what will inevitably happen if Nigeria troops enter Cote d'Ivoire under whatever sanctions, local Nigerians living in the Ivory Coast will be subjected to some harsh realities... African Style.

Dozens of people gathered outside the Nigerian embassy holding signs that read: "We don't want a military intervention" and "Let Ivoirians solve Ivorian problems."

I don't actually agree with "It's time for Africans to fix their problems" because I've seen just how they all end up manipulating each other to no end.

[Rex Brynen]

I don't actually agree with "It's time for Africans to fix their problems" because I've seen just how they all end up manipulating each other to no end.

Yes, its a good thing none of the Great Powers ever do that

[Stan]

Yes, its a good thing none of the Great Powers ever do that

Hey Rex,
Good point. Although, I am no advocate of foreign intervention (as it is we're always late for the party while millions die, so why start now )
Far too many examples of political will vs just a decent cause. We could just fix it and get out (leaving the oil and minerals behind for China I suppose

Somehow I doubt that's going to happen. It may be the second time as a soldier I was glad the US was otherwise preoccupied with something else !

[davidbfpo]

I know where the Ivory Coast is, but until a moment ago had little idea what exactly the UN deployment means. Taken with some reservations, as they are UN official documents.

First a map of the military and police deployments:http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/dpko/unoci.pdf and the international composition, alas without details:http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/mi...ci/facts.shtml

Most of those listed under military personnel are military observers, not formed units.

Note in Abidjan, the current focus, the UN military come from Bangladesh, Jordan and Togo. IIRC only the Jordanians have a reputation for steadfastness - a legacy of Bosnia. Stan no doubt will remind us what the Bangladeshi unit did in Rwanda.

The French have 800 soldiers in country now, from one press report and I'd expect them to be in the capital too - anxiously watching over the remaining French nationals (maybe 12k).

[Marshal Murat]

Ivory Coast UN ambassador warns of genocide risk

"We think it's unacceptable. Thus, one of the messages I try to get across during the conversations I have conducted so far, is [that] we are on the brink of genocide."

Mr Bamba said some houses had been marked according to the residents' tribal background, and that he was concerned about what could happen next.

I think this is an interesting claim, something that is either correct, or simply an attempt to link Ivory Coast to Rwanda?

[Stan]

Hmmm, with the planned Ville Mort passing without participation (ala Zairois) and the UN threats postponed until 03 JAN, we now have...

Renowned French lawyers come to Gbagbo's aid

Two famous French lawyers -- one of them best known for defending Nazi Klaus Barbie -- came to Ivory Coast on Thursday to support isolated strongman Laurent Gbagbo.

[jmm99]

for the job, but my youth and inexperience cut against me. Rats !

Cheers

Mike

[Bob's World]

When the legitimacy of government falls into question it makes any country ripe for unrest. Even in the US where we have tremendous (though I fear declining) popular faith in the system, it has been challenges of legitimacy that have created the greatest public uproar; first with the "Hanging Chads" in the Bush-Gore election, and then currently with questions over President Obama's birth certificate.

As countries becomes less stable and more troubled in general, such concerns are amplified.

I don't know much about the facts of the situation in general in the Ivory Coast, or of the recent events in particular, but I would look for indicators for public perceptions of the following factors in making my assessment:

1. Populace perceptions of their liberty (as measured based upon their historic, cultural expectations).
2. Populace perceptions of the legitimacy of their government. (recognition of its right to government them. what foreign bodies think is moot)
3.. Perceptions of justice. (how they feel about the application of the rule of law)
4. Perceptions of respect and equity (do any significant groups feel they are treated unfairly as a matter of some status)
5. And lastly I'd look at their perceptions of their ability to legally effect changes in the system.

We need to learn to look beyond our own perceptions of the situation or of the leaders on either side of the equation that emerge. It is too easy to let biases distract from clear eyed assessments of the critical drivers behind such movements.

Sometimes such things are "just" a play for power or wealth, and are not supported by a broad popular base of concern. Or, as often, the popular base of concern exists, but the small group playing for power or wealth are merely leveraging that for their own selfish gains.

My suspicion is that this is just one more chapter in what is going to be a long book of chaotic revolutions and evolutions of governance to emerge for the disruptive influences of western colonialism. I don't believe there are any shortcuts or quick fixes so long as the current borders and concepts of each being a sovereign state as defined by some European colonial body persist. Interventions may mitigate violence, but they typically ignore the core drivers of such conflicts and instability.

[M-A Lagrange]

I do not want to play the cassandra but according to some IC specialist the Outtara forces offensive has been planed by US and/or French military with logistical support from Nigeria and Burkina Faso.

Sure visible boots on the ground are not a solution.