Ivory Coast

[Ron Humphrey]

Not sure this hasn't been brought up somewhere else yet if so feel free to move it to the appropriate thread

Election Results Reversed

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast (AP) — Angry youths are protesting in Ivory Coast's main city, burning tires, throwing chunks of concrete and tearing down billboards after election results were reversed.

[Rex Brynen]

Ecowas bloc threatens Ivory Coast's Gbagbo with force
BBC News
24 December 2010 Last updated at 16:03

The West African regional bloc Ecowas has told incumbent Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo to stand down or expect to face "legitimate force".

The statement came at the end of emergency talks on the crisis sparked by a disputed election last month.

The 15-member bloc and other international bodies have recognised his rival Alassane Ouattara as winner.

[davidbfpo]

Ron,

You were right to start a thread on the Ivory Coast. I have searched and whilst the term Ivory Coast does appear, SWC has not watched or commented upon the situation there.

I would suggest a couple of reasons for this: we rarely consider UN peacekeeping, let alone other regional peacekeeping (Somalia is an exception); it is in a Francophone country and above all it is in Africa. Would that change here if AFRICOM was to have a role?

Incidentally I would expect France to be the main country wondering WTF, IIRC there was a substantial expatriate community there.

BBC News latest report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12079552

[Stan]

Greetings from a very snowy Estonia !

David, using the French version... Côte d'Ivoire we do get a few hits, but then this so-labeled LIC deserves its own thread.

Hmmm, Simple coincidence following the (then) president's 18 December order that UN and French troops leave the country and opposition to renew their mandate ?

Gbagbo Orders UN, French Troops Out

[M-A Lagrange]

Would be long to put all the references, especially as most material I have is in French but let say things do not look good.

1) Bagbo asked the UN and French troops to leave,
2) Outara asked the Un to stay
3) UN responded positively to Outara demand
4) French and German governments advised their citizen to leave Ivory Cost
5) Bagbo declared he will fight up to the last cartridge to liberate Ivory Cost…
6) US and UN confirmed that Bagbo sent his death squad and killed over 200 people since in power.
7) 14000 Ivorian fled Ivory Coast to Liberia according to UNHCR

What next?
Civil war restarts or a foreign military intervention to install Outara in power?
That’s the 2 worst case scenarios ever, for Ivory Coast and for the whole continent.

What’s happening in Ivory Coast is important for sub Saharan Africa because it can open the road to a new African model based on legality and freedom of the people to choose their future. Or it can be the final grave of any changes on that continent.

[davidbfpo]

Maybe helpful, an article on Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent President who is resisting calls to stand down after the national election:http://www.guardian.co.uk/theobserve...bo-david-smith

[carl]

Maybe helpful, an article on Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent President who is resisting calls to stand down after the national election:http://www.guardian.co.uk/theobserve...bo-david-smith

David:

The most interesting quote in that story is this one by Richard Dowden of the Royal African Society regarding Mr. Gbagbo and company "These are all smart, Sorbonne-educated, sophisticated international people, so I don't know how they think they can get away with this. If it was a jumped-up sergeant major or colonel who had never been outside the country, it would be easier to understand."

That may or may not say something about Mr. Gbagbo and his people but it speaks volumes as to how Mr. Dowden at least, can let a diploma confuse him about human nature.

[JMA]

Would be long to put all the references, especially as most material I have is in French but let say things do not look good.

1) Bagbo asked the UN and French troops to leave,
2) Outara asked the Un to stay
3) UN responded positively to Outara demand
4) French and German governments advised their citizen to leave Ivory Cost
5) Bagbo declared he will fight up to the last cartridge to liberate Ivory Cost…
6) US and UN confirmed that Bagbo sent his death squad and killed over 200 people since in power.
7) 14000 Ivorian fled Ivory Coast to Liberia according to UNHCR

What next?
Civil war restarts or a foreign military intervention to install Outara in power?
That’s the 2 worst case scenarios ever, for Ivory Coast and for the whole continent.

What’s happening in Ivory Coast is important for sub Saharan Africa because it can open the road to a new African model based on legality and freedom of the people to choose their future. Or it can be the final grave of any changes on that continent.

This is all predictable. A quick timeline.

Arising from the Kenyan presidential election, 2007 incumbent president Kibaki fiddles the election enough to hang onto power as president while Odinga gets offered the post of Prime Minister (and maybe a Swiss bank account) to shut him up.

Mugabe likes this idea. Zimbabwe 2008 - the incumbent president Mugabe fiddles the election and (supported by the military) refuses to stand down. Following the Kenyan example he negotiates a settlement where he and his miklitary thugs retain power while MDC-T's Tsvangirai is offered the post of Prime Minister (and maybe a Swiss bank account) to shut him up.

Now we have Ivory Coast and now following the familiar fashion (like out of Don McLeans American Pie) "the marching band refused to yield" ... but (surprise surprise) the incumbent president says he is willing to negotiate - sound familiar?

Not sure the threat of military force by ECOWAS will achieve anything more than even more chaos and the normal raping, looting and pillaging (Remember Sierra Leone and Liberia.

It is time to stop pussy-footing around and apply JMA's 3-Cruise-Missile-Option.

With some sections of the army wavering (it appears) the first missile targets the barracks of the most loyal unit to Gbagbo - do it now, tomorrow.

The second with 12 hours warning targets the current location of Gbagbo himself - he won't be there but will get the message strength 5.

Thereafter the word is put out that there's a $1m for the person who provides Gbagbo's location as a target for the third missile.

I think you will find Gbagbo will agree to discussing the terms of his handing over power to the elected president. This could also act as a rehearsal for the upcoming Zimbabwe elections - those are bound to be a lot of fun too.

[Stan]

It is time to stop pussy-footing around and apply JMA's 3-Cruise-Missile-Option.

JMA, I sure hope you don't purchase your stuff from Russia. The last few I've seen in Georgia don't work

I think you will find Gbagbo will agree to discussing the terms of his handing over power to the elected president. This could also act as a rehearsal for the upcoming Zimbabwe elections - those are bound to be a lot of fun too.

I think you and M-A have some strong points herein. Not just Zimbabwe but the DRC as well. If we screw this election up, no African alive will feel threatened by the West waving their big stick... Ever again.