Ivory Coast

[M-A Lagrange]

I'm an impenitent Afro optimist, sorry.

Yes, ECOWAS is a bad solution and would probably extend any confrontations for several years (cf Liberia).
Well, that could be a nice opportunity for a mission in a better setting than DRC.

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report on the viability of an armed African intervention:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12083228

Within is a local analyst's viewpoint:

Key countries that would have to contribute may not have the political stomach and the temerity...Nigeria is heading towards elections and may not want to put in troops on the ground for that a long time; Ghana has elections in 2012 and Senegal has its own problems with dynastic succession.

Elsewhere I posted an IISS commentary on the AU's standby forces and here is the link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ll-on-standby/

[Stan]

In fact what will inevitably happen if Nigeria troops enter Cote d'Ivoire under whatever sanctions, local Nigerians living in the Ivory Coast will be subjected to some harsh realities... African Style.

Dozens of people gathered outside the Nigerian embassy holding signs that read: "We don't want a military intervention" and "Let Ivoirians solve Ivorian problems."

I don't actually agree with "It's time for Africans to fix their problems" because I've seen just how they all end up manipulating each other to no end.

[Rex Brynen]

I don't actually agree with "It's time for Africans to fix their problems" because I've seen just how they all end up manipulating each other to no end.

Yes, its a good thing none of the Great Powers ever do that

[Stan]

Yes, its a good thing none of the Great Powers ever do that

Hey Rex,
Good point. Although, I am no advocate of foreign intervention (as it is we're always late for the party while millions die, so why start now )
Far too many examples of political will vs just a decent cause. We could just fix it and get out (leaving the oil and minerals behind for China I suppose

Somehow I doubt that's going to happen. It may be the second time as a soldier I was glad the US was otherwise preoccupied with something else !

[davidbfpo]

I know where the Ivory Coast is, but until a moment ago had little idea what exactly the UN deployment means. Taken with some reservations, as they are UN official documents.

First a map of the military and police deployments:http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/dpko/unoci.pdf and the international composition, alas without details:http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/mi...ci/facts.shtml

Most of those listed under military personnel are military observers, not formed units.

Note in Abidjan, the current focus, the UN military come from Bangladesh, Jordan and Togo. IIRC only the Jordanians have a reputation for steadfastness - a legacy of Bosnia. Stan no doubt will remind us what the Bangladeshi unit did in Rwanda.

The French have 800 soldiers in country now, from one press report and I'd expect them to be in the capital too - anxiously watching over the remaining French nationals (maybe 12k).

[Marshal Murat]

Ivory Coast UN ambassador warns of genocide risk

"We think it's unacceptable. Thus, one of the messages I try to get across during the conversations I have conducted so far, is [that] we are on the brink of genocide."

Mr Bamba said some houses had been marked according to the residents' tribal background, and that he was concerned about what could happen next.

I think this is an interesting claim, something that is either correct, or simply an attempt to link Ivory Coast to Rwanda?