Ivory Coast

[jmm99]

Lobbyist Quits Job With Ivory Coast Leader;

and Gbagbo wants his $$ back, Ivory Coast asks lobbyist for $200,000 back.

Perhaps, the two late octogenarian French "legal beagles" (or is it "legal poodles" ?) can sue poor old Lanny in their spare time.

Cheers

Mike

[ocnus]

I've been told that Gbagbo didn't take a call from Obama because he thought it would be better to refuse the call than to say 'No' to Obama who was going to press for a joint tenancy of the Presidency a la Kenya. The role of Susan Rice in this business should not be overlooked. She was widely detested in Africa for her partisanship in favour of Museveni and Kagame. She is a dangerous ideologue with a direct line to Obama. I was with Kabila I when Rice arrived in Kinshasa after a public toasting and feting of Kagame in Kigali. Kabila welcomed Susan Rice at the airport by saying "I welcome you to Kinshasa as the ambassador from Rwanda". There are many impediments in the effort to get a reasoned position in Foggy Bottom.

[Pete]

I think Western governments should fund a mercenary brigade under JMA to sort out this latest fouled-up situation in Africa. Just imagine, a unit with guys from SAS, Parachute Regiment, the Selous Scouts, and the Waffen SS! Were JMA to be able to pull this one off and emerge victorious he'd become utterly insufferable on the forum, it would be a case of "I told you so" every time you turned around!

[JMA]

I think Western governments should fund a mercenary brigade under JMA to sort out this latest fouled-up situation in Africa. Just imagine, a unit with guys from SAS, Parachute Regiment, the Selous Scouts, and the Waffen SS! Were JMA to be able to pull this one off and emerge victorious he'd become utterly insufferable on the forum, it would be a case of "I told you so" every time you turned around!

Nice one Pete.

No brigade needed... just three cruise missiles like I said.



...PS: its not that I'm so clever... its that some others are so stupid

[ocnus]

It is interesting that you mention Cruise missiles. After the attack on Pademba Prison in Freetown a number of Sierra Leone worthies were evacuated to a US vessel standing offshore. One of the Sierra Leoneans turned to the US Marine General and suggested that he send a Cruise missile towards Freetown to frighten the rebels. The general made a classic reply "If I send a Cruise missile towards Freetown, it would have to fly as far as Dubai before it could ht anything worth more than the missile".

[davidbfpo]

A long commentary by Knox Chiteyo, from the RUSI, on the BBC News:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11952773

The French presence:

.. France...has 900 highly trained soldiers based near Abidjan airport. The official role of these troops is to be the Rapid Reaction Force of the United Nations peacekeeping force in Ivory Coast.

However, if soldiers from the former colonial power France joined forces with anyone to take Ivory Coast by force it would be political dynamite.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12096437

[ocnus]

I thought this might be of interest.
http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish...t-Gbagbo.shtml

[Marshal Murat]

Gbagbo Agrees to Talks

Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo has agreed to negotiate a "peaceful end" to his country's crisis without preconditions, regional leaders say.

The chairman of the Ecowas regional group said Mr Gbagbo had also agreed to immediately lift the blockade around the temporary headquarters of his presidential rival Alassane Ouattara.

[Stan]

I thought this might be of interest.
http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish...t-Gbagbo.shtml

OK, I'll bite !

Wish the link text was a little larger - hard to read.

Are the African Leaders and other powerful Africans really, truly, members of the French Masons ? Or, similar to what I witnessed and was later told, these memberships are but token gestures to keep the peace if you will ?

The Rotary Club and Lions Club among others were constantly complaining to the Ambassadors and American Chamber of Commerce over providing symbolic and free of charge memberships to African leaders and other powerful interest group leaders.

This seems more of a right of passage than true participating membership. Although, and in keeping with the typical African business savy, they still manage to squander funds that purportedly end up supporting some political office. While that may certainly be true of real Masons around the world, they have yet to come face-to-face with Africa and her leaders.

I personally wouldn't believe anything an African banker told me... Especially not over cocktails and dinner with US diplomats

[M-A Lagrange]

OK, I'll bite !

Wish the link text was a little larger - hard to read.

Are the African Leaders and other powerful Africans really, truly, members of the French Masons ? Or, similar to what I witnessed and was later told, these memberships are but token gestures to keep the peace if you will ?

Ok, i did try and I don't bite it! Could not even go to the end of the text.

Yes ENA (Ecole Nationale d'Administration) and Polytechnique are among the 5 most prestigious private schools in France but it just does not work as they describe it.
By the way the aim of ENA is to educate and train high level civil servants! most of the politicians and diplomats... in France went there. No secret neither conspiracy.
Polytechnique was created to train officers... We also have Ecole des Mines
which was made to train high level civil servants by Louis 13... And Central with many nobel prices... By the way, if you graduate those schools, until recently, you were automatically an officer for the reserve. That was a post WW1 law! But shhhhhhh

Most of the African families in Francophone Africa send their children to be educated in France. Yes, so what? They all end up in a secret society?
I have a secret, some African president did serve in the French Army and the French Army is training, in secret, their "special forces"...

But if we want to talk about the Mason role in this part of Africa, let's talk about Liberia! That's more interresting, historically documented and actually true.

Coming back to Ivory Coast, it seems that US tried to give Bagbo an opportunity to get asylum in Atlanta.

[Stan]

Coming back to Ivory Coast, it seems that US tried to give Bagbo an opportunity to get asylum in Atlanta.

Not on my tax dollars

It is now more evident why he refused to speak with president Obama, if all we could offer was life in Georgia

[JMA]

Now here is a yank who seems to have learned something during his time in Africa.

US envoy cautions against power sharing in Ivory Coast

``Because what power sharing does is that it enables a big man who has lost an election to remain in power, and from that perspective this is a particularly sensitive time in Africa.

``The spread of power sharing may well tempt those who lose those elections to try to either somehow hang onto power or gain power or (even) some options of power.

``Power sharing is undemocratic,’’

Simple and self evident... but not to Washington, Paris and London it seems.

[Stan]

Now here is a yank who seems to have learned something during his time in Africa.

US envoy cautions against power sharing in Ivory Coast

Simple and self evident... but not to Washington, Paris and London it seems.

Hey JMA,
Actually that yank you're referring to has a lot of (recent) history, and not that great a history, both at home and especially abroad.

Limited understanding

“appears to take delight in inciting instability in Nigeria with his entire thesis based on a worst case scenario and seeming relish in willing it to occur.

Former US Ambassador advocates Military Rule for Nigeria

that military intervention could indeed be a “positive” for the country.

John Campbell Is Wrong On Nigeria Again

if Mr. Campbell’s primary motive was centered around helping Nigeria avert chaos, he would have sent his concerns along with appropriate recommendations to the Nigerian authorities. In a situation where the Nigerian authorities ignore him, he could have privately made same recommendations to the US State department to address his Nigerian concerns.

Wikileaks anyone

However, he might actually entertain your "3 Cruise Missile theory"

Regards, Stan

[JMA]

Hey JMA,
Actually that yank you're referring to has a lot of (recent) history, and not that great a history, both at home and especially abroad.

Hi Stan, Not to detract from how on the button I believe he is with regard to Ivory Coast I note that his predictions for Nigeria (contained in a book) are what has upset some Nigerians.

Upsetting the Nigerian Foreign Minister and a Nigerian blogger into critical responses (to his ideas) is hardly evidence of wholesale condemnation of what he writes/predicts.

Consider that Nigeria with its North/South Muslim/Christian divide is in reality just a larger version of Ivory Coast with the larger potential for calamity.

However, he might actually entertain your "3 Cruise Missile theory"

Well the body count is at 210 and all we are getting is talk, talk, talk (and some behind the scenes pressure). Lets wait and see.

[davidbfpo]

Within a BBC report, which refers to;

UN peacekeepers in Ivory Coast are sending a request to the Security Council for 1,000 to 2,000 more troops amid the continuing political crisis.

This gem, which I've not seen reported before:

Foreign Minister Alcide Djedje said The Ivorian army feels it cannot tolerate that 300 heavily armed soldiers from the former rebellion should be in the hotel. If the soldiers go, the blockade will be lifted...The north of the country is controlled by the New Forces, the former rebel movement that supports Mr Ouattara.

I'd only seen reports that the UN were providing security.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12123607

[JMA]

Within a BBC report, which refers to;

This gem, which I've not seen reported before:

I'd only seen reports that the UN were providing security.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12123607

Well given the failure of the UN in Rwanda and at Srebrenica to protect anyone I would suggest that it would be prudent and intelligent for Ouattara to hedge his bets and bring in his own forces.

[Stan]

The government of Côte d'Ivoire's incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo has ordered the expulsion of the British and Canadian ambassadors because they do not recognise ambassadors appointed by Gbagbo. Presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara meanwhile called for a west African sting operation against Gbagbo.

Then there's this option "Ouattara called Thursday for an operation by west African special forces to kidnap Gbagbo."

"Legitimate force doesn't mean a force against Ivorians," he said. "It's a force to remove Laurent Gbagbo and that's been done elsewhere, in Africa and in Latin America, there are non-violent special operations which allow simply to take the unwanted person and take him elsewhere."

[Stan]

Upsetting the Nigerian Foreign Minister and a Nigerian blogger into critical responses (to his ideas) is hardly evidence of wholesale condemnation of what he writes/predicts.

Consider that Nigeria with its North/South Muslim/Christian divide is in reality just a larger version of Ivory Coast with the larger potential for calamity.

Hey JMA,
Agreed, and I did provide some weak links to support my theories regarding our Administrations' amateur Africanists

However, a tour or two and later a self-proclaimed expert on the region worries me; be it military and/or civilian. They are flattering themselves at best and simultaneously showing our inept ability to comprehend African politics.

Too many from my days and second guessing your African political opponents with ca 1970s studies can only lead us to an ineffective policy for engagements in the most important Francophone country in the region.

The US might have had the last word with Charles Taylor, but we don't have a hope or prayer here. IMO the current administration still doesn't get the internal dynamics of the Ivory Coast and West Africa.

Regards, Stan

[Stan]

Originally Posted by JMA
Stan, of course you are correct in that even after a few years in Nigeria as ambassador he remains a long way from being an Africa expert. I wish there was something like the "congressional voting record" one could apply to the analyst/chattering class. Very soon we would see who knew what he was talking about.

Lets just look at what he said again:

Because what power sharing does is that it enables a big man who has lost an election to remain in power, and from that perspective this is a particularly sensitive time in Africa.

The spread of power sharing may well tempt those who lose those elections to try to either somehow hang onto power or gain power or (even) some options of power.

Power sharing is undemocratic,’’

JMA,
This is where I think we've lost sight of African leadership and mentality. Years ago opposition in both Brazzaville and Kinshasa was swiftly dealt with (fish food for those along the Congo river). Of course there's no power sharing among former presidents, and to naively think we could leave the outgoing president to live in harmony while the his replacement serves is absurd. It might work for most and supposedly Russia, but nowhere in Africa is there solid evidence of a happy ending. Exactly where (other than say Ghana) has a president simply stepped down following elections (that they seldom held before), and lived happily ever after ?

Originally Posted by JMA
That would seem obvious to me but believe it or not there are a lot of self proclaimed smart guys at State who think differently or see not problem/pattern taking shape across Africa.

In the classic tradition of Africa they take one step forward (holding elections where none were held before) then one step back by refusing to accept the outcome and trying to negotiate personal terms over the wishes of the people under the threat of mass bloodshed). And the smart guys at State are saying... "but at least they are holding elections."

And sadly not just State. I was sitting with my boss in Kinshasa during the uprisings and civil war in Brazzaville (our purported E&E if Zaire went bang again), when an officer reported a "solid shot" artillery projectile going through an adobe hut ("how about UXO" I remarked with tears coming out of my eyes and severe stomach pains from hysterical laughter).

"Stan, we're only as strong as our weakest link" my Ranger boss contended as we would soon have the same colonel on our team in Rwanda (he lasted less than 5 weeks before the French would no longer house him and my boss sent him back home packing). This colonel went on to become Clinton's adviser to Africa

Originally Posted by JMA
Well one learns from Africa that "when the elephants fight it is the grass that gets trampled" - (Kikuyu proverb).

My Lingala is a bit rusty, but this one I recall well...
Moto ya soso balabi, libata aseki, mpo nzungu ya lobi nde ya ye, mokili tour tour.

Literally translated means "The chicken's head is cooking while the duck laughs. But it forgets that tomorrow's pot will contain its head. Something like what comes around, goes around !

Our years of meddling with Africa have taught us nothing. Now, with reduced funding we witlessly conclude we can simply call someone and say stop !

Originally Posted by JMA
Good heavens Stan, you mean beyond fun on the cocktail party circuit the US State department has little to show for the last fifty years (or so) of engagement with Africa?

Hmmm, the cocktail party circuit ? Now that I'm no longer part of that and pining away in this freezing country I recall some really good times at the Ambassador's residence watching AA fire crossing the river... like the 4th of July. Some of my best times and contacts were at gun point

[JMA]

Originally Posted by Stan
Hey JMA,
Agreed, and I did provide some weak links to support my theories regarding our Administrations' amateur Africanists

However, a tour or two and later a self-proclaimed expert on the region worries me; be it military and/or civilian. They are flattering themselves at best and simultaneously showing our inept ability to comprehend African politics.

Stan, of course you are correct in that even after a few years in Nigeria as ambassador he remains a long way from being an Africa expert. I wish there was something like the "congressional voting record" one could apply to the analyst/chattering class. Very soon we would see who knew what he was talking about.

Lets just look at what he said again:

Because what power sharing does is that it enables a big man who has lost an election to remain in power, and from that perspective this is a particularly sensitive time in Africa.

The spread of power sharing may well tempt those who lose those elections to try to either somehow hang onto power or gain power or (even) some options of power.

Power sharing is undemocratic,’’

That would seem obvious to me but believe it or not there are a lot of self proclaimed smart guys at State who think differently or see not problem/pattern taking shape across Africa.

In the classic tradition of Africa they take one step forward (holding elections where none were held before) then one step back by refusing to accept the outcome and trying to negotiate personal terms over the wishes of the people under the threat of mass bloodshed). And the smart guys at State are saying... "but at least they are holding elections."

Too many from my days and second guessing your African political opponents with ca 1970s studies can only lead us to an ineffective policy for engagements in the most important Francophone country in the region.

Well one learns from Africa that "when the elephants fight it is the grass that gets trampled" - (Kikuyu proverb).

So why it is not obvious to State if you want to avoid the "grass getting trampled" (and end up paying billions in humanitarian aid, reconstruction projects etc etc) you take the bad elephants out before they cause damage? Quick and clean.

Then another obvious Africa proverb "If you want to kill a snake hit it on the head."

Maybe we should run a seminar for the clowns at State called "The Art of the Obvious"

The US might have had the last word with Charles Taylor, but we don't have a hope or prayer here. IMO the current administration still doesn't get the internal dynamics of the Ivory Coast and West Africa.

Regards, Stan
Good heavens Stan, you mean beyond fun on the cocktail party circuit the US State department has little to show for the last fifty years (or so) of engagement with Africa?