Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
I am always amazed by those who argue against doing what is most likely to work simply because it is difficult.
Difficult is what we are doing now.

A successful negotiation is entering the realm of the impossible.

The Taliban and Pakistan have no incentive to move towards a negotiated end to the fighting. Indeed, they have material incentives to sabotage such negotiations.

The Taliban
1) Have repeatedly denied negotiating with anyone. Have predicated the beginning of negotations on a Western withdrawal of forces. Would likely lose credibility with Gulf Arab funders if seen as publicly breaking with either of the prior two conditions.

2) If the letter is correct in its assumptions, the Taliban are already winning militarily. Why negotiate now when its position will be much stronger later?

3) Various Taliban warlords are making enormous sums off the Western presence now and will continue to do so only if they continue to exert a credible threat of violence to extort funds from contractors, NGOs, narcotics organizations, and ordinary Afghans.

Pakistan
1) Is making billions in its current position as regional spoiler from U.S. aid. Primary goal is keep this money spigot flowing, as this maintains the current tottering power structure. This will stop if the U.S. begins to take Afghanistan less seriously.

2) Is watching its primary Afghan agent, the Taliban, taking power. Why stop this, when dominance is within view?