An Open Letter to President Obama

[tequila]

I'm sorry, but negotiation is no more realistic given just those constraints.

What seems more the pipe-dream, you ask? Negotiation is much more the pipe-dream for the reasons I listed above.

I find it far more plausible that the U.S. can build and fund an Afghan military and associated militias capable of holding several provinces against the Taliban than to believe that the Taliban will voluntarily negotiate a politically viable diplomatic solution to the war with Western nations, the Afghan government, and Pakistan.

I note that those advocating negotiation have never yet been able to envision even the broad outlines of what such a settlement might look like. I posit that there is no such settlement to be had - the priorities of the factions within the Afghan government, the Western nations, the Taliban, and most of all Pakistan are incompatible. Too many of the current parties get more out of the current situation than they would if the war came to a negotiated end. The incentives for nearly all the major players (excepting the U.S.) are all for victory, or at the very least playing out the string.