Negotiation is a non-starter. There is no incentive for the taliban to do so. Worse, there is no unified element with which to negotiate. It seems apparent that the core leadership elements for HQN, Quetta Shura and Hizb-i-Gulbuddin only loosely control their combatant commanders and have tenuous ties with one another. Dog chases tail in a no-win scenario.

The vital nat'l interest for each NATO entity remains the nearly accomplished by 2002 task of dismembering Al Qaeda. Nothing more nor less. Everything else falls into the sub-heading of nat'l interests...but certainly not vital.

Our issue remains how best to quarantine Afghanistan yet continue our central mission of destroying Al Qaeda and their affiliates wherever found while permitting Pakistan its notional victory (which will almost certainly implode in their faces).

There will be no complete taliban takeover nor Pakistani "victory" in any case. Even should we depart posthaste, there are numerous countries in the region who've vital nat'l interests include not seeing a taliban-dominated Afghanistan. Iran, Russia, CAR, and India all have roles to play here that supercede America and NATO. They should be given free hand to do so as they see fit.

That will more than offset any Pakistani sponsoring of an afghan taliban takeover while permitting NATO (particularly America) to retain the ways and means to pursue our strategic ends-Al Qaeda.

Thanks.