What problems lead to rioting? Catch all (new title)

[Bob's World]

Bob:

Something about losing hope.

Even in a bad circumstance, if people believe they have a chance for a fair shake, you have (legitimacy?) to society/government.

It's only when they lose hope....

Things can get pretty bad, but if the people have faith in the system, even when they have lost faith in their current leaders, there is hope. Where there is hope, there is not likely to be insurgency.

Sometimes fixing the problems of governance are a long, time consuming process. But if one focuses their COIN efforts on creating perceptions of legitimacy of governance and on creating and implementing new (or better yet, refurbishing old) processes and tools of legally shaping governance, they can put insurgency onto an off-ramp.

We tried to do that in Afghanistan with the elections and the constitution, but we really just went through the motions on each and totally missed the mark. I say go back and re-engage on those two strategic targets until we get it right, and everything else will fall into place.

(Meanwhile, the mission is still AQ, and the Taliban are still the key to our stated mission with AQ. We need to wrap our brains around that little fact as well).

[Majormarginal]

A lot of police have lost faith in the system.

[Steve the Planner]

The best book on the subject is, unfortunately, "Implementation," by Wildavsky and Pressman.

The subtitle is as follows: "How Great Expectations in Washington Are Dashed in Oakland; Or, Why It's Amazing that Federal Programs Work at All, This Being a Saga of ... on a Foundation (The Oakland project series)."

It tells the story of how, despite best efforts, unlimited Great Society funding and 99% unanimous support at federal, state and local levels, the Oakland post-riot recovery failed abysmally. Wildavsky and Pressman are exceptional in providing a systems analysis that extends to all related government programs.

It is out of print but always available.

It is the book that separates well-intentioned coinistas from public policy and planning professionals. If it had been required reading for COIN proponents, they would, in all likelihood, have understood the limits of their efforts and future prospects.

Several senior civilian reconstruction experts brought the book with them to Iraq (as I did, too). It tells us that the only viable solution is to drive market-based stabilization/reactivation, and to minimize the distortive role of government assistance (except for immediate post-conflict humanitarian needs, food security, etc...).

Witness Afghanistan now, where US funding is, in effect, the major market, distorting everything in our wake like a giant death star with its own momentum/gravity shifting power.

Reality is that much of this stuff has been tried over and over in every possible permutation of government works and jobs program, none of which have ever survived withdrawal of subsidies. Typically, it creates its own detrimental unintended consequences.

[AdamG]

Something to think about : nature abhors a vacuum.

DETROIT—More than 20% of Detroit's 139 square miles could go without key municipal services under a new plan being developed for the city, with as few as seven neighborhoods seen as meriting the city's full resources.

Those details, outlined by Detroit planning officials this week, offer the clearest picture yet of how Mayor Dave Bing intends to execute what has become his signature program: reconfiguring Detroit to reflect its declining population and fiscal health. Yet the blueprint still leaves large legal and financial questions unresolved.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._WSJ_US_News_5


So if wealthy neighborhoods can afford this -

One NJ Neighborhood Opts for Private Police Force
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local...112341519.html

---what fills the vacuum in poor neighborhoods?

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

In my experience and viewing there is rarely a vacuum. When the state's power ebbs away or was never really that powerful (southern Italy comes to mind) there are alternative providers of 'order'.

On one large public housing project here there was a community court, which dealt mainly with petty theft and anti-social behaviour by juveniles. rarely were the police involved, although a couple of officers knew it existed. It was remarkably effective - according to those who spoke - and even the local criminal families accepted the court.

There have been several documentaries on alternative order providers in the shanty towns of South Africa. What I recall were: payment by results, lack of an effective state response and the narrow line for the alternative providers and what the community thought acceptable.

[slapout9]

AdamG,

In my experience and viewing there is rarely a vacuum. When the state's power ebbs away or was never really that powerful (southern Italy comes to mind) there are alternative providers of 'order'.

On one large public housing project here there was a community court, which dealt mainly with petty theft and anti-social behaviour by juveniles. rarely were the police involved, although a couple of officers knew it existed. It was remarkably effective - according to those who spoke - and even the local criminal families accepted the court.

There have been several documentaries on alternative order providers in the shanty towns of South Africa. What I recall were: payment by results, lack of an effective state response and the narrow line for the alternative providers and what the community thought acceptable.

Thats right, somebody will fill that role sooner or later.