COIN in a non-state environment

[TheCurmudgeon]

COIN seems to be predicated on the idea that there is a functioning (albeit not necessarily legitimate) government in place. That the insurgency is fighting to replace that government. What happens when there is not a government?

The obvious example is Afghanistan, where Karzai is often referred to as nothing more than the "mayor of Kabul". If there is no real state, do the doctrines underlying COIN really apply?

[Global Scout]

Where does it state that COIN requires a functioning government? If you buy into Bob's World's arguments then the conditions were set for insurgency because the State wasn't functioning well to begin with.

I think Karzai is more than a Mayor and he extends control beyond Kabul, but as you state he doesn't control a lot beyond Kabul. If it isn't an insurgency what is it? A civil war? If that was the case then the doctrinal approach (I'm not saying this is right) would be peace enforcement.

[M-A Lagrange]

Per definition, you need a government to have insurgents. The fact that the government is or not legitimate does not really matter.
In failed states, governing by abandonning part of the State supremacy to local war lords can and has been a form of government in failed states. In such cases, it is difficult to really establish if government is representing the whole State or just the formal form of administration that a modern state can discuss with.
But even in non state environment, such as Somalia, you do have a form of government. The main issue is that it is not unified, does not correspond to our form of governance... Therefore each and every little agreement has to be negociated with each and every war lord. I like to picture it as an archepelago of small state like organisations in a sea of sand...
If you want to impose a webberian modern state on them, I am not that sure that you need COIN in the first place. At least not pop centric COIN.
You need to establish the military suprematy of the government you do support first. That needs to be violent and unflexible.
Then, in the area where you have control on you can think about pop centric COIN as a magnet to rally populations to your side. But they will rally just because your the strongest, mightest and they fear you, not for any other reasons. The social services and formal state administration will just a cherry on the top of the cake.

[TheCurmudgeon]

If you want to impose a webberian modern state on them, I am not that sure that you need COIN in the first place. At least not pop centric COIN.
You need to establish the military suprematy of the government you do support first. That needs to be violent and unflexible.
Then, in the area where you have control on you can think about pop centric COIN as a magnet to rally populations to your side. But they will rally just because your the strongest, mightest and they fear you, not for any other reasons. The social services and formal state administration will just a cherry on the top of the cake.

I was thinking the same thing, but this was tried by the Soviets. Maybe their failure was their attempt to use a Marxist version of COIN, trying to convince the locals that they were the abused proletariat.

I would have to agree that the average rural Afghan will side with whomever can provide long term security as long as they do not try to change the social structure. Not sure how violent and inflexible you can be, not because they will not accept your rule but because we don't have the support for those type of tactics. However, in principle I think that is a strategy that would work.

[Bob's World]

You need to establish the military suprematy of the government you do support first. That needs to be violent and unflexible.
Then, in the area where you have control on you can think about pop centric COIN as a magnet to rally populations to your side. But they will rally just because your the strongest, mightest and they fear you, not for any other reasons. The social services and formal state administration will just a cherry on the top of the cake.

Oh boy. I had a squad leader like that who worked for me back in my PL days in the mech infantry in West Germany. He would treat his guys like crap all week long, then on Friday afternoon he'd buy a case of sodas to share. He came to me one day asking me why none of his guys liked him, what with him buying them sodas and all.

I told him "Its because your an a*@hole, SGT M." "Your men have no respect for you because you have no respect for them, and then try to bribe away your sins at the end of the week. It won't work. You need to treat them the same way you'd want to be treated."

As to Afghanistan, of course there is a government; we took out their competition, picked them a leader, allowed them to build an overly centrally controlled Ponzi scheme free from any legal popular challenge, and then dedicated ourselves to protecting it.

What is surprising to me is that anyone is surprised that there is an insurgency to challenge what we've enabled to exist.

[Stan]

That's Africa whether you install a government or not (we've done it more times that I care to even remember and with a lot more money than we currently have invested in Afghanistan). I dare not call the resistance an insurgency (as was once pointed out to me earlier this year) while millions die.

Anyone who has at least a tour on the dark continent would appreciate where M-A is coming from. Yes, his appraisal has little to do with Muslims and their culture, or does it ?

Respect ? Has nothing to do with Africa as you end up in the river with the crocks.

[Bob's World]

That's Africa whether you install a government or not (we've done it more times that I care to even remember and with a lot more money than we currently have invested in Afghanistan). I dare not call the resistance an insurgency (as was once pointed out to me earlier this year) while millions die.

Anyone who has at least a tour on the dark continent would appreciate where M-A is coming from. Yes, his appraisal has little to do with Muslims and their culture, or does it ?

Respect ? Has nothing to do with Africa as you end up in the river with the crocks.

Perhaps an initial assessment would have came back with: "These guys really don't do "states", and simply because the US only has a State Department for running our foreign policy is no reason to force half the world's populace into that structure to accommodate them. Perhaps DOS could make a minor adjustment or two, and learn to interact with other structures more acceptable to the people who will have to live with them."

No, M-A is running off of a mindset that, while never acceptable, did at least work fairly well up to about the mid-1800s. As info/transportation technology with the harnessing of steam and electricity, such models have been in an accelerating downward spiral ever since.

[davidbfpo]

We started with Curmudgeon's opening statement:

COIN seems to be predicated on the idea that there is a functioning (albeit not necessarily legitimate) government in place. That the insurgency is fighting to replace that government. What happens when there is not a government?

Perhaps we in the West, where we currently have relatively stable societies and borders, need to adjust to those parts of the Third World which governance and / or governments that are very, very different? Alongside an appreciation that such places can change, for the better and the worse (as reflected in another thread on Africa).

I have yet to see an appreciation of this in the British political realm, except some "think tanks", where short-term dominates. It is difficult to see a Western politician explain that the burden and cost of intervention / help will not produce an effect we can understand. A point that appeared on the Haiti thread, with an unexpected political twist in Canada and another on "kith & kin" IIRC.

With the current situation in the Ivory Coast, a successful nation until a few years ago, with both a French and UN intervention force trying to resolve two competing governments this is a current issue. A few years ago there was the collapse, if not civil war in Congo-Brazzaville that made it a "basket" case.

Surely the first rule for the West is to help conflict prevention and keep out of COIN?

[slapout9]

If it isn't an insurgency what is it? A civil war? If that was the case then the doctrinal approach (I'm not saying this is right) would be peace enforcement.

A Covert Invasion from Pakistan using a Guerrilla Army(Guerrilla=Armed Civilians).