Tunisia: catch all

[davidbfpo]

Two very different articles - before - the change of governance. The first opens with:

In the end one never knows why it is that social conditions erupt into revolt. More often than not they do not. But still, there are a number of factors which might explain the current unprecedented protests.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/rob-pri...%80%99s-enough

The second is rather more polemical, if not outrageous and starts:

Abolkacim Ashabi once wrote, "If the people one day decide to live, fate must answer and the chains must break." Bouazizi’s martyrdom may have triggered a popular revival, many now believe, which will ensure that it is only a matter of time before Ashabi’s prophecy is fulfilled.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/dyab-ab...ple-and-beyond

[davidbfpo]

The BBC, which has a reporter there, has reasonable coverage:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12195025

Note the reporter's comment on the prospects:

The protesters have put their bodies on the line, and many people have been killed. Tonight, they ignored the curfew to celebrate on the streets. At the end of a dramatic day, President Ben Ali fled, no longer able to hold back the growing tide of public discontent and anger with his regime. Now, the protesters will want to see the fruits of their demonstrations. They won't settle for meagre reform, they won't settle for the same elite remaining in power. They're very happy that the president has gone, but they don't like the regime that surrounded him, and they'll want his cronies out as well.

What I noticed watching the latest newsreel is that those on the streets were not the youth.

[davidbfpo]

An academic expert adds:

Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali came to power in 1987 through a constitutional coup and he appears to have been removed from power through a constitutional coup. The key here on both occasions was not the constitution but the army.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12197343

[Bob's World]

This is an event that people should take note of. Expect to see far more "Cyber Insurgency" in the future. Expect to see "Cyber UW" as well. It's a bold new world, and it will not be long until the realization that cyber insurgency is more effective, less offensive to the global community, and safer to implement than many of the more violent tactics employed historically.

violent tactics place the pain on a nations security forces, cyber tactics take the pain to the whole of government and the entire populace. The former can be ignored or downplayed for years, but the latter must be contended with immediately.

[slapout9]

This is an event that people should take note of. Expect to see far more "Cyber Insurgency" in the future. Expect to see "Cyber UW" as well. It's a bold new world, and it will not be long until the realization that cyber insurgency is more effective, less offensive to the global community, and safer to implement than many of the more violent tactics employed historically.

violent tactics place the pain on a nations security forces, cyber tactics take the pain to the whole of government and the entire populace. The former can be ignored or downplayed for years, but the latter must be contended with immediately.

I agree, it deals with mobilizing the population on a mass scale in real time, something that used to take a lot more time and energy to do in the past. I disagree from the stand point that it will only be non-violent, it could be used violently also and probably will.

[Bob's World]

I don't think I said it would "only be non-violent." There will always be violence in insurgency, it is human nature. Non-violent tactics are historically more effective, but require a degree of understanding, a strength of leadership and discipline that are rare.

As in the past, there will typically be a mix of violent and non-violent tactics in insurgency. My point is that cyber opens up a new domain to conduct insurgency within, and it is one that favors the insurgent. It is also a domain that favors the wager of unconventional war as well.

Just as any fat, middle-aged perv can easily pass himself off as a beautiful teenage girl on line; so too can a carefully selected team pass themself off as disgruntled local revolutionary. "Take your team to Lagos and conduct UW" is a damn hard mission. "Build a team and go to the computer lab to conduct UW in Lagos" is also difficult, but much more feasible with far lower consequences, nationally and personally, for failure.

[slapout9]

Bob, it is some scary stuff. In Colonel Warden's original article the Enemy Is A System he talked about how in the future whole wars would be fought and won or lost in the Info-Sphere(now called cyber-space). No more foreign boots on the ground.... but platforms in the hands.