Tunisia: catch all

[Bob's World]

This is an event that people should take note of. Expect to see far more "Cyber Insurgency" in the future. Expect to see "Cyber UW" as well. It's a bold new world, and it will not be long until the realization that cyber insurgency is more effective, less offensive to the global community, and safer to implement than many of the more violent tactics employed historically.

violent tactics place the pain on a nations security forces, cyber tactics take the pain to the whole of government and the entire populace. The former can be ignored or downplayed for years, but the latter must be contended with immediately.

[slapout9]

This is an event that people should take note of. Expect to see far more "Cyber Insurgency" in the future. Expect to see "Cyber UW" as well. It's a bold new world, and it will not be long until the realization that cyber insurgency is more effective, less offensive to the global community, and safer to implement than many of the more violent tactics employed historically.

violent tactics place the pain on a nations security forces, cyber tactics take the pain to the whole of government and the entire populace. The former can be ignored or downplayed for years, but the latter must be contended with immediately.

I agree, it deals with mobilizing the population on a mass scale in real time, something that used to take a lot more time and energy to do in the past. I disagree from the stand point that it will only be non-violent, it could be used violently also and probably will.

[Bob's World]

I don't think I said it would "only be non-violent." There will always be violence in insurgency, it is human nature. Non-violent tactics are historically more effective, but require a degree of understanding, a strength of leadership and discipline that are rare.

As in the past, there will typically be a mix of violent and non-violent tactics in insurgency. My point is that cyber opens up a new domain to conduct insurgency within, and it is one that favors the insurgent. It is also a domain that favors the wager of unconventional war as well.

Just as any fat, middle-aged perv can easily pass himself off as a beautiful teenage girl on line; so too can a carefully selected team pass themself off as disgruntled local revolutionary. "Take your team to Lagos and conduct UW" is a damn hard mission. "Build a team and go to the computer lab to conduct UW in Lagos" is also difficult, but much more feasible with far lower consequences, nationally and personally, for failure.

[slapout9]

Bob, it is some scary stuff. In Colonel Warden's original article the Enemy Is A System he talked about how in the future whole wars would be fought and won or lost in the Info-Sphere(now called cyber-space). No more foreign boots on the ground.... but platforms in the hands.

[davidbfpo]

An expert comment on this aspect:

In a string of Arab countries, succession issues loom as ageing autocrats confront the unmet aspirations of their youthful and rapidly growing populations. Mohamed Bouazizi's life and death sum up the condition of the Arab world today.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12198039

Note the side reference to riots in Algeria, which I've seen no reporting on; not that the UK media watch the region closely and Tunisia only as it was relatively open and a winter holiday destination.

[Bob's World]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/wo...ef=global-home


David,

Actually many states where conditions of insurgency are high, but where no organized violent movement as pressed hard, could well follow this example of Cyber insurgency.

Think how many Arab states that the West considers as allies are described by this quote from your article David links to in the post above:

"For decades, Western governments depicted Tunisia as an oasis of calm and economic success - a place they could do business with.

They turned a blind eye to President Ben Ali's harsh suppression of dissent - and ignored the fact that, while the elite prospered, ordinary Tunisians suffered.""

In fact, those European (which have much lower levels of conditions of insurgency than the majority of Arab states where AQ has enjoyed in roads) states where there have been flashes of uprisings, should be alert to this possibility as well. The car burnings in Paris, the assault on the Royals in England, etc. Cyber insurgency is a powerful, safe, and effective way to act out in escalation of such precursor events.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Bob's World,

This is an event that people should take note of. Expect to see far more "Cyber Insurgency" in the future. Expect to see "Cyber UW" as well. It's a bold new world, and it will not be long until the realization that cyber insurgency is more effective, less offensive to the global community, and safer to implement than many of the more violent tactics employed historically.

The power to rapidly mobilize various groups and individuals via the internet became apparent during the WTO conference in Seattle in 1999, and subsequent WTO events like the one in Genova, Italy resulted in the same type of mass mobilization.

Iran had its twitter revolution recently, but it failed, why? It is much to early to assume this uprising in Tunisa has been successful, since it now appears that military is actually in charge of the government (with a puppet civilian representative as the spokesperson in an attempt to present a veil of legitimacy). The various activists had a common cause, which was to force the President out of office, but now what? One hopes they'll resolve this situation peacefully, but the stage is set for much more violence if a popularly accepted leader is not identified.

It would be a mistake to think that groups of like minded activist couldn't mobilize populations prior to the internet. It happened in Poland with Solidarity and it happened in China during when the movement was crushed during the Tiananment Square event. However, the internet is a powerful tool that "significantly" enhances the ability of like minded people to plan and organize remotely in real time. You can be there without being there.

"For decades, Western governments depicted Tunisia as an oasis of calm and economic success - a place they could do business with.

''

I'm not sure what government leaders the author quoted, but when I visited Tunisa around 10 years ago the tension with the population was palapable, and it was recognized by USG officials as a potential time bomb, but there did seem to be the belief that the government effectively squashed any real opposition before it could cause much trouble. Hard to do that when the trouble is wide spread and near spontaneous.