Tunisia: catch all

[davidbfpo]

An expert comment on this aspect:

In a string of Arab countries, succession issues loom as ageing autocrats confront the unmet aspirations of their youthful and rapidly growing populations. Mohamed Bouazizi's life and death sum up the condition of the Arab world today.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12198039

Note the side reference to riots in Algeria, which I've seen no reporting on; not that the UK media watch the region closely and Tunisia only as it was relatively open and a winter holiday destination.

[Bob's World]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/wo...ef=global-home


David,

Actually many states where conditions of insurgency are high, but where no organized violent movement as pressed hard, could well follow this example of Cyber insurgency.

Think how many Arab states that the West considers as allies are described by this quote from your article David links to in the post above:

"For decades, Western governments depicted Tunisia as an oasis of calm and economic success - a place they could do business with.

They turned a blind eye to President Ben Ali's harsh suppression of dissent - and ignored the fact that, while the elite prospered, ordinary Tunisians suffered.""

In fact, those European (which have much lower levels of conditions of insurgency than the majority of Arab states where AQ has enjoyed in roads) states where there have been flashes of uprisings, should be alert to this possibility as well. The car burnings in Paris, the assault on the Royals in England, etc. Cyber insurgency is a powerful, safe, and effective way to act out in escalation of such precursor events.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Bob's World,

This is an event that people should take note of. Expect to see far more "Cyber Insurgency" in the future. Expect to see "Cyber UW" as well. It's a bold new world, and it will not be long until the realization that cyber insurgency is more effective, less offensive to the global community, and safer to implement than many of the more violent tactics employed historically.

The power to rapidly mobilize various groups and individuals via the internet became apparent during the WTO conference in Seattle in 1999, and subsequent WTO events like the one in Genova, Italy resulted in the same type of mass mobilization.

Iran had its twitter revolution recently, but it failed, why? It is much to early to assume this uprising in Tunisa has been successful, since it now appears that military is actually in charge of the government (with a puppet civilian representative as the spokesperson in an attempt to present a veil of legitimacy). The various activists had a common cause, which was to force the President out of office, but now what? One hopes they'll resolve this situation peacefully, but the stage is set for much more violence if a popularly accepted leader is not identified.

It would be a mistake to think that groups of like minded activist couldn't mobilize populations prior to the internet. It happened in Poland with Solidarity and it happened in China during when the movement was crushed during the Tiananment Square event. However, the internet is a powerful tool that "significantly" enhances the ability of like minded people to plan and organize remotely in real time. You can be there without being there.

"For decades, Western governments depicted Tunisia as an oasis of calm and economic success - a place they could do business with.

''

I'm not sure what government leaders the author quoted, but when I visited Tunisa around 10 years ago the tension with the population was palapable, and it was recognized by USG officials as a potential time bomb, but there did seem to be the belief that the government effectively squashed any real opposition before it could cause much trouble. Hard to do that when the trouble is wide spread and near spontaneous.

[tequila]

The Wikileaks cables regarding Tunisia are here.

[Fuchs]

As far as I know the events started with a tiny tragedy that ignited the powder keg. It takes no internet or special software to do this - it's not unlike what happened in East Europe around '90.

The regime was old, it was hollowed out, brittle, and it disintegrated once challenged on the streets.

It seems to me to be over-the-top ego-centricism to think that topics that attracted our attention recently were relevant in this case.

[Rex Brynen]

The regime was old, it was hollowed out, brittle, and it disintegrated once challenged on the streets.

It is also worth pointing out that the regime is still in power. Certainly Ben Ali isn't. However the ruling party (RCD) and the military are. It wasn't just the street demonstrations that forced the President to resign: it was also the decision by those around him to withdraw their support in the hopes of maintaining the status quo.

We'll see what happens. It is entirely possible that the interim RCD-led government will collapse, or have to make major concessions. It is possible that the elections will bring to power genuine (but currently very disorganized) opposition voices.

It is also possible, however, that the RCD will still find a way to survive this, with a face-lift, a new leader, and some political and economic compromises--or that we'll see even more direct military intervention in politics.

[Bill Moore]

Tequila, thanks for the link, it is good to know this crisis wasn't a surprise to our diplomats, nor would have it have been a surprise 10 years ago. The conditions were set, it just required a catalyst.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Fuchs,

As far as I know the events started with a tiny tragedy that ignited the powder keg. It takes no internet or special software to do this - it's not unlike what happened in East Europe around '90.

After reviewing all the links I have to agree there is little evidence that the internet played a significant. The comments on Wikileaks appears to be mere speculation. The tension has been mounting for many years, and while it isn't clear what elevated it to this level, I haven't seen any evidence that the internet media contributed in a major way. Maybe in time we will.

Anonymous seems to believe that he/she is making a major contribution to the uprising, but I see limited posts on his/her site, and the one I did see from Tunsia said his/her contributions weren't helpful. While I'm confident the internet is being used to coordinate, mobilize, and garner global support (perhaps unintentionally), there is no evidence presented yet that it has played a significant role like it did during the Seattle WTO chaos.

I think the bigger questions now that need to be asked are what does this mean to region at large? Will it prompt citizens in other Arab countries with oppressive governments to raise up? Will this present new challenges or opportunities to the extremists? Since the uprising appears to be mostly unorganized, who will assume the new leadership role in Tunsia? If it is the military, will anything really change?

[AdamG]

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) - Tunisian authorities struggled to restore order Sunday, arresting the top presidential security chief and trying to stop gunfights that erupted in and beyond the capital. One clash broke out around the deposed president's palace on the Mediterranean shore, another near the headquarters of the main opposition party.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110116/D9KPL3I80.html

ANONYMOUS defines itself
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkDgOEz6wGM