Tunisia: catch all

[Bob's World]

I'm not sure how important "tipping point" assessment is. That's kind of like asking how often one can physically/emotionally abuse their spouse before they leave them. The tolerance of every spouse is different, just as the events that will trigger negative responses are different. The human dynamic, however, is universal. Same is true for insurgency.

My advice is: "don't abuse your spouse." Same advice to governments. Don't ask me how much you can get away with; how much illegitimacy is too much, or what will drive that determination in a particular populace; how much injustice in the application of the rule of law, or what types of enforcement will be perceived as unjust in a particular populace; what inequities and disrespect as a matter of status sting the members of a particular populace most sharply; how how all of these things will feed on each other, along with other physical, financial hardships to this "tipping point." But in understanding and valuing what is important one never gets close to such a point.

Also, if there are trusted, certain and legal means available to a populace to address their reasonable grievances with government such tipping points can be avoided as well. This is a large part of what maintains stability in the U.S. and it is so trusted and common to us that we take it for granted.

But there are many nations in the Arab league that are absolutely teetering on the tipping point right now. There are no such trusted, certain and legal venues to address governance in these countries. Some will react with greater oppression and suppress the populace. Some may make concessions (In Eastern Europe this was the decision put to Soviet leadership, and it was only their decision not to counter such populace movements that prevented a generational conflict there) Certainly the Islamists will surge to take advantage, to claim responsibility and seek to seize positions of influence in emerging governments. The West cannot afford to merely sit back and watch. To remain neutral is to create the presumption that we support the status quo. This will embolden despots to crack down on their people, and it will also strengthen the position of the Islamist with the people as well.