Tunisia: catch all

[Rex Brynen]

The regime was old, it was hollowed out, brittle, and it disintegrated once challenged on the streets.

It is also worth pointing out that the regime is still in power. Certainly Ben Ali isn't. However the ruling party (RCD) and the military are. It wasn't just the street demonstrations that forced the President to resign: it was also the decision by those around him to withdraw their support in the hopes of maintaining the status quo.

We'll see what happens. It is entirely possible that the interim RCD-led government will collapse, or have to make major concessions. It is possible that the elections will bring to power genuine (but currently very disorganized) opposition voices.

It is also possible, however, that the RCD will still find a way to survive this, with a face-lift, a new leader, and some political and economic compromises--or that we'll see even more direct military intervention in politics.

[Bill Moore]

Tequila, thanks for the link, it is good to know this crisis wasn't a surprise to our diplomats, nor would have it have been a surprise 10 years ago. The conditions were set, it just required a catalyst.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Fuchs,

As far as I know the events started with a tiny tragedy that ignited the powder keg. It takes no internet or special software to do this - it's not unlike what happened in East Europe around '90.

After reviewing all the links I have to agree there is little evidence that the internet played a significant. The comments on Wikileaks appears to be mere speculation. The tension has been mounting for many years, and while it isn't clear what elevated it to this level, I haven't seen any evidence that the internet media contributed in a major way. Maybe in time we will.

Anonymous seems to believe that he/she is making a major contribution to the uprising, but I see limited posts on his/her site, and the one I did see from Tunsia said his/her contributions weren't helpful. While I'm confident the internet is being used to coordinate, mobilize, and garner global support (perhaps unintentionally), there is no evidence presented yet that it has played a significant role like it did during the Seattle WTO chaos.

I think the bigger questions now that need to be asked are what does this mean to region at large? Will it prompt citizens in other Arab countries with oppressive governments to raise up? Will this present new challenges or opportunities to the extremists? Since the uprising appears to be mostly unorganized, who will assume the new leadership role in Tunsia? If it is the military, will anything really change?

[Bob's World]

It's not that cyber insurgency played a major part, it is that it was an intentional line of operations in this movement.

Tanks didn't play a major part in WWI, but the value was identified and the usage grew.

I do absolutely concur that when the conditions of insurgency are high enough, that even if all active resistance is effectively suppressed by the government, with the right catalyst things can move quickly and dramatically. This was certainly the case in Eastern Europe (though the emerging information age played a key role in unifying the populaces of several countries to dare to challenge Soviet dominion there as well); is certainly the case in Tunisia; and I contend is the case in many other Arab countries that US has supportive relationships with the governments of.

It would not be surprising at all, if the broader populace bases of these countries abandoned the "help" that AQ offers as too radical and too violent, and instead seeks other less violent and more effective means to achieve changes of governance that they have no legal venue to affect. The US needs to get in front of this, or run the risk of seeing much of our influence in such nations being set out on the curb along with the existing government when such changes occur. This this goes to the central theory in the two papers I published on Populace-Centric Engagement (here on SWJ) and Populace-Centric Foreign Policy (on World Politics Review) a couple years ago.

[davidbfpo]

I too am sceptical about the impact of modern media on this street campaign and am less certain about its impact on the governing elite / army. Someone I am sure can attest to the penetration of new media in Tunisia; how many people have mobile phones, use the web, use Twitter etc?

Link to BBC comment on media:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12180954

Nor should we overlook the original catalyst, the student trader who burnt himself and that the President visited his bedside before he died. When he did that all Tunisians knew what the student had done. Was the visit a mistake I do not know.

Newsreel in crisis situations is a snapshot and as I posted before it was the age groups involved that indicated to me a mass movement had appeared. Yesterday I noted pictures of women and not one wearing a head scarf.

What will be the impact of Tunisia? An Arab writes:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...s-from-tunisia

Under 'Why the Jasmine Revolution won't bloom' a press comment, with a superb joke, after the link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ont-bloom.html

Some joked that Mr Ben Ali, whose plane into exile was refused permission to land in a repentant France before heading east to Saudi Arabia, dropped in first on Mr Mubarak’s seaside home in Sharm el Sheikh. “Come to stay?” Mr Mubarak asks. “No, come to pick you up,” replies Mr Ben Ali.

[Rex Brynen]

I too am sceptical about the impact of modern media on this street campaign and am less certain about its impact on the governing elite / army. Someone I am sure can attest to the penetration of new media in Tunisia; how many people have mobile phones, use the web, use Twitter etc?

Mobile phones (and SMS) are ubiquitous: 9.8 million in a country with a population of 10.6 million. There are an estimated 3.5 million internet users.

Facebook is heavily used, and Youtube (+ cellphone video) was quite common during the protests. Twitter isn't much used.

I think the new media played a role, but they were hardly transformative. Sidi Bouzid, where the initial incident took place--is only 280km from the capital. The first protests in the capital weren't until January 12, or 25 days after the initial disturbances. That's an average speed of 460m per hour. You could walk faster than that

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Bob's World,

The US needs to get in front of this, or run the risk of seeing much of our influence in such nations being set out on the curb along with the existing government when such changes occur.

Bob we are in agreement, and to some extent we did this during the Cold War with Voice of America (probably by far our greatest weapon during that time period), but now and then we also pursued adjusted our foreign policy based on perceived pragmatism. Personally I would prefer to see a values based foreign policy, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. At heart I'm still very much a De Oppresso Liber person, and if people are striving to be liberated and need assistance I think we should be there in some form whether it is simply moral support (which the President came the Tunisian people) or physical assistance. That differs significantly from occupying a nation and trying to force democracy upon them. That is an oppressive form of democracy, not a democracy that arises from the will of the people.

Rex, I appreciate the insights on the forms of media being used in Tunisa and their influence. I have to admit I was surprised that it was so prevelant. I'm getting read to Groundswell by Li and Bernoff soon (finally getting to my Christmas present), which hopefully will help enlighten me further on how social technologies are transforming the world.

David, enjoyed the joke in the article, just wish it wasn't a joke! In many ways modern Islamic Extremism can be traced back to Egypt, and the extremist ideology there was/is stroked by an oppressive government. Of course the million dollar question is if the oppressive government fell, would a liberal and progressive society prevail, or would the Islamists who are already organized prevail?

[Kevin23]

The effects of the Tunisian crisis are being felt elsewhere in the region in the form of speculation mainly as these articles point out. And like mentioned above by other posters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011503141.html

http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2011/blog...ouble_in_libya

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110116/...ideast_tunisia

[AdamG]

Posted by Fuchs,
Anonymous seems to believe that he/she is making a major contribution to the uprising, but I see limited posts on his/her site, and the one I did see from Tunsia said his/her contributions weren't helpful. While I'm confident the internet is being used to coordinate, mobilize, and garner global support (perhaps unintentionally), there is no evidence presented yet that it has played a significant role like it did during the Seattle WTO chaos.

ANONYMOUS is not an individual.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29

I don't have a dog in this fight, either way. Just making sure there's clarity.

*
In Tunisia, social media are main source of news about protests

Despite strict censorship, protesters, aided by activists outside the country, are using blogs, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other online media to mobilize and spread information.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan...ernet-20110115

[AdamG]

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) - Tunisian authorities struggled to restore order Sunday, arresting the top presidential security chief and trying to stop gunfights that erupted in and beyond the capital. One clash broke out around the deposed president's palace on the Mediterranean shore, another near the headquarters of the main opposition party.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110116/D9KPL3I80.html

ANONYMOUS defines itself
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkDgOEz6wGM