Tunisia: catch all

[Rex Brynen]

I too am sceptical about the impact of modern media on this street campaign and am less certain about its impact on the governing elite / army. Someone I am sure can attest to the penetration of new media in Tunisia; how many people have mobile phones, use the web, use Twitter etc?

Mobile phones (and SMS) are ubiquitous: 9.8 million in a country with a population of 10.6 million. There are an estimated 3.5 million internet users.

Facebook is heavily used, and Youtube (+ cellphone video) was quite common during the protests. Twitter isn't much used.

I think the new media played a role, but they were hardly transformative. Sidi Bouzid, where the initial incident took place--is only 280km from the capital. The first protests in the capital weren't until January 12, or 25 days after the initial disturbances. That's an average speed of 460m per hour. You could walk faster than that

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Bob's World,

The US needs to get in front of this, or run the risk of seeing much of our influence in such nations being set out on the curb along with the existing government when such changes occur.

Bob we are in agreement, and to some extent we did this during the Cold War with Voice of America (probably by far our greatest weapon during that time period), but now and then we also pursued adjusted our foreign policy based on perceived pragmatism. Personally I would prefer to see a values based foreign policy, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. At heart I'm still very much a De Oppresso Liber person, and if people are striving to be liberated and need assistance I think we should be there in some form whether it is simply moral support (which the President came the Tunisian people) or physical assistance. That differs significantly from occupying a nation and trying to force democracy upon them. That is an oppressive form of democracy, not a democracy that arises from the will of the people.

Rex, I appreciate the insights on the forms of media being used in Tunisa and their influence. I have to admit I was surprised that it was so prevelant. I'm getting read to Groundswell by Li and Bernoff soon (finally getting to my Christmas present), which hopefully will help enlighten me further on how social technologies are transforming the world.

David, enjoyed the joke in the article, just wish it wasn't a joke! In many ways modern Islamic Extremism can be traced back to Egypt, and the extremist ideology there was/is stroked by an oppressive government. Of course the million dollar question is if the oppressive government fell, would a liberal and progressive society prevail, or would the Islamists who are already organized prevail?

[Kevin23]

The effects of the Tunisian crisis are being felt elsewhere in the region in the form of speculation mainly as these articles point out. And like mentioned above by other posters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011503141.html

http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2011/blog...ouble_in_libya

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110116/...ideast_tunisia

[AdamG]

The effects of the Tunisian crisis are being felt elsewhere in the region in the form of speculation mainly as these articles point out. And like mentioned above by other posters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011503141.html

http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2011/blog...ouble_in_libya

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110116/...ideast_tunisia

Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the furthest ripples in the pond.
http://www.scmagazineus.com/hired-gu...rticle/194087/

[Bob's World]

Just keeping this thread elevated. These events in Tunisia offer the West their best opportunity in years to make true progress against Islamist terrorism.

Will we step up to champion the populace of Tunisia in their quest for greater liberty, a new Parliament, a new constitution, and an new future? To pursue Self-Determination and life, liberty and happiness on their own terms. Or will we reinforced the failures of the exiled regime and attempt to "enforce the rule of law" and return it to power?

"Ben Ali was considered a U.S. ally for cracking down on Islamic extremism, which included jailing militants and forcing opposition politicians into exile, such as Rashid Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party."

This is exactly what I have been warning against. We are enabling guys like this to have an open season on oppressing their own populaces in the name of "counterterrorism." Tunisia is just one of many countries where this is true. This is the problem with intel-driven strategy. Intel guys look for threats to governments, they don't look for how the governments themselves are in fact the threat. To conduct security force capacity building in such countries only makes these governments more effective as suppressing their populaces. We have gotten off track, but it is not too late to recover.

The President's comment on this topic from the 14th:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...events-tunisia

A subtle note to Mubarak buried in this conversation with the president yesterday:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...-mubarak-egypt

Will this be like a Hungary 1956, or a Hungary 1988? Or somewhere in between? Will this be put down, or will it ripple across the despotic regimes of the Middle East, rolling them back much as Communism and the Soviets were rolled back in Eastern Europe?

This is what opportunity looks like.

[Graycap]

These events in Tunisia offer the West their best opportunity in years to make true progress against Islamist terrorism.

Strongly concur. But with very low expectations.

These opportunities could be very real especially for Europe. Europe could demonstrate that an intermediate way between american style in ecporting democracy (Lebanon, Iraq ecc...) and the chinese cinic approach could exist.


We have big emigrated communities to leverage and to use like informal communication channel. We are at their borders with econic ties.

In 15 years we could have our "tunisians" to oppose to islamist "afghans" in the battle for hearts and minds in the streets of arab cities.

But if we read the declarations of our politicians doubts arise. The italian foreign relations minister praised Lybia as an example two days ago...
Lybia that probably will be the first source of destabilization for Tunisia.

'Nuff said

[Bob's World]

Politicians and diplomats think in terms of governments and officials; but this is about nations and populaces. If Western governments are able to make this mental shift, to prioritize the health of nations and the welfare of populaces over the alliances they make with the governments and officials who exercise authority over the same, we can move forward. If they cannot, then we are doomed to continue to support some of the most despotic regimes in the world, while continuing to incentivize these restless populaces to listen to AQ and continue their attacks until we yield in that support.

I recommend we take the initiative, and disempower AQ in the process. Libya is a great example, as Qaddafi's son is on record as a much more moderate leader than his father. Now is the perfect time to sit with Qadaffi and recommend that he nip the growing unrest in his nation in the bud by taking control of the situation while the situation is still within his control. Shift leadership to his son and open talks with his people regarding reasonable governmental reforms. Egypt, with its nearing election similarly can get in front of this if it chooses.

This is also an opportunity to recalibrate Western CT programs and security force capacity building programs in these nations. Such intel-driven, threat-centric efforts have served to enable these Arab leaders to continue to act with impunity toward their own populaces, rolling up nationalist subversives in the name of "counterterrorism."

We have allowed Bin Laden and AQ to become the champion of the people, while we have settled deeper into our Cold War role as the protector and the enabler of these oppressive regimes. I wish I could sugar coat our role over the past few decades, but I don't see how.

This is very much like how the information age empowered the people of Eastern Europe to stand up to the Soviets in the late 80s and early 90s; and we supported them in their efforts to find self-determination and liberty free from Soviet oppression. We need only provide the same type of support to the similarly situated populaces of the Arab world today. If we opt instead to weigh in on the side of the status quo, on the side of continued support and Enablement of these despotic regimes, we will only delay the inevitable, and increase the risks to our populaces at home of terrorist attacks.

I believe the President has the right instincts on this, but he will need support from principled men and women on both sides of the aisle. If the "Good Cold Warriors" and Oil interest lackeys prevail, it will be an opportunity lost.