Tunisia: catch all

[davidbfpo]

I too am sceptical about the impact of modern media on this street campaign and am less certain about its impact on the governing elite / army. Someone I am sure can attest to the penetration of new media in Tunisia; how many people have mobile phones, use the web, use Twitter etc?

Link to BBC comment on media:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12180954

Nor should we overlook the original catalyst, the student trader who burnt himself and that the President visited his bedside before he died. When he did that all Tunisians knew what the student had done. Was the visit a mistake I do not know.

Newsreel in crisis situations is a snapshot and as I posted before it was the age groups involved that indicated to me a mass movement had appeared. Yesterday I noted pictures of women and not one wearing a head scarf.

What will be the impact of Tunisia? An Arab writes:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...s-from-tunisia

Under 'Why the Jasmine Revolution won't bloom' a press comment, with a superb joke, after the link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ont-bloom.html

Some joked that Mr Ben Ali, whose plane into exile was refused permission to land in a repentant France before heading east to Saudi Arabia, dropped in first on Mr Mubarak’s seaside home in Sharm el Sheikh. “Come to stay?” Mr Mubarak asks. “No, come to pick you up,” replies Mr Ben Ali.

[Rex Brynen]

I too am sceptical about the impact of modern media on this street campaign and am less certain about its impact on the governing elite / army. Someone I am sure can attest to the penetration of new media in Tunisia; how many people have mobile phones, use the web, use Twitter etc?

Mobile phones (and SMS) are ubiquitous: 9.8 million in a country with a population of 10.6 million. There are an estimated 3.5 million internet users.

Facebook is heavily used, and Youtube (+ cellphone video) was quite common during the protests. Twitter isn't much used.

I think the new media played a role, but they were hardly transformative. Sidi Bouzid, where the initial incident took place--is only 280km from the capital. The first protests in the capital weren't until January 12, or 25 days after the initial disturbances. That's an average speed of 460m per hour. You could walk faster than that

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Bob's World,

The US needs to get in front of this, or run the risk of seeing much of our influence in such nations being set out on the curb along with the existing government when such changes occur.

Bob we are in agreement, and to some extent we did this during the Cold War with Voice of America (probably by far our greatest weapon during that time period), but now and then we also pursued adjusted our foreign policy based on perceived pragmatism. Personally I would prefer to see a values based foreign policy, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. At heart I'm still very much a De Oppresso Liber person, and if people are striving to be liberated and need assistance I think we should be there in some form whether it is simply moral support (which the President came the Tunisian people) or physical assistance. That differs significantly from occupying a nation and trying to force democracy upon them. That is an oppressive form of democracy, not a democracy that arises from the will of the people.

Rex, I appreciate the insights on the forms of media being used in Tunisa and their influence. I have to admit I was surprised that it was so prevelant. I'm getting read to Groundswell by Li and Bernoff soon (finally getting to my Christmas present), which hopefully will help enlighten me further on how social technologies are transforming the world.

David, enjoyed the joke in the article, just wish it wasn't a joke! In many ways modern Islamic Extremism can be traced back to Egypt, and the extremist ideology there was/is stroked by an oppressive government. Of course the million dollar question is if the oppressive government fell, would a liberal and progressive society prevail, or would the Islamists who are already organized prevail?

[Kevin23]

The effects of the Tunisian crisis are being felt elsewhere in the region in the form of speculation mainly as these articles point out. And like mentioned above by other posters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011503141.html

http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2011/blog...ouble_in_libya

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110116/...ideast_tunisia

[AdamG]

The effects of the Tunisian crisis are being felt elsewhere in the region in the form of speculation mainly as these articles point out. And like mentioned above by other posters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011503141.html

http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2011/blog...ouble_in_libya

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110116/...ideast_tunisia

Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are the furthest ripples in the pond.
http://www.scmagazineus.com/hired-gu...rticle/194087/

[Bob's World]

Just keeping this thread elevated. These events in Tunisia offer the West their best opportunity in years to make true progress against Islamist terrorism.

Will we step up to champion the populace of Tunisia in their quest for greater liberty, a new Parliament, a new constitution, and an new future? To pursue Self-Determination and life, liberty and happiness on their own terms. Or will we reinforced the failures of the exiled regime and attempt to "enforce the rule of law" and return it to power?

"Ben Ali was considered a U.S. ally for cracking down on Islamic extremism, which included jailing militants and forcing opposition politicians into exile, such as Rashid Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party."

This is exactly what I have been warning against. We are enabling guys like this to have an open season on oppressing their own populaces in the name of "counterterrorism." Tunisia is just one of many countries where this is true. This is the problem with intel-driven strategy. Intel guys look for threats to governments, they don't look for how the governments themselves are in fact the threat. To conduct security force capacity building in such countries only makes these governments more effective as suppressing their populaces. We have gotten off track, but it is not too late to recover.

The President's comment on this topic from the 14th:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...events-tunisia

A subtle note to Mubarak buried in this conversation with the president yesterday:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...-mubarak-egypt

Will this be like a Hungary 1956, or a Hungary 1988? Or somewhere in between? Will this be put down, or will it ripple across the despotic regimes of the Middle East, rolling them back much as Communism and the Soviets were rolled back in Eastern Europe?

This is what opportunity looks like.

[Graycap]

These events in Tunisia offer the West their best opportunity in years to make true progress against Islamist terrorism.

Strongly concur. But with very low expectations.

These opportunities could be very real especially for Europe. Europe could demonstrate that an intermediate way between american style in ecporting democracy (Lebanon, Iraq ecc...) and the chinese cinic approach could exist.


We have big emigrated communities to leverage and to use like informal communication channel. We are at their borders with econic ties.

In 15 years we could have our "tunisians" to oppose to islamist "afghans" in the battle for hearts and minds in the streets of arab cities.

But if we read the declarations of our politicians doubts arise. The italian foreign relations minister praised Lybia as an example two days ago...
Lybia that probably will be the first source of destabilization for Tunisia.

'Nuff said