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Thread: General CT in Europe (catch all)

  1. #41
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A debate on the Forum, started a couple of days ago on the current thread on French CT, deserves a thread - for the debate and wider implications, especially as savagery is a feature (hat tip to Adam G for his post).

    This post will drop from No.1 when the posts are transferred.
    Awesome. Suggest migrating Slappy's Sherman reference and my response as well.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  2. #42
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Azor,

    How does 'collective punishment' of Muslims post-Nice work when the NYT reports? My emphasis added:
    When a Tunisian man drove a truck down a crowded street in Nice last week in an attack claimed by the Islamic State, more than one-third of the people he killed were Muslim, the head of a regional Islamic association said on Tuesday.
    Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/wo...lims.html?_r=0

    There is a far wider application as it is a fact that more Muslims have been killed across the globe by Jihadists, than non-Muslims.
    davidbfpo

  3. #43
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default CT needs to re-think?

    The Soufan Group Intel Brief has an article today. BLUF:
    Several recent terror attacks have involved suspects previously unknown to counterterrorism officials. • Investigators have used terms like ‘rapid radicalization’ to describe the trajectory of suspects who displayed no traditional indicators of terrorism.
    • The absence of narrow terrorism indicators is not followed by the absence of indicators of radicalization and violence.
    • Broadening the scope of indicators to include the propensity for violence and misogyny, among others traits, may demonstrate that radicalization is a much longer process than widely understood.
    Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-of-terrorism/


    Changing the CT machinery maybe needed, with a potentially wider role for advance warning from civil institutions and the public.
    davidbfpo

  4. #44
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    Anyone care to place their bets now?


    MUNICH (AP) — Police were hunting Saturday for clues to explain why an 18-year-old German-Iranian man opened fire at a crowded Munich shopping mall and fast-food restaurant, killing nine people and wounding 16 others before killing himself.

    The attack in the Bavarian capital sparked a massive security operation as authorities — already on edge after the recent attacks in Wuerzburg and Nice, France — received witness reports of multiple shooters carrying rifles shortly before 6 p.m. (1600 GMT). Six hours later police declared a "cautious all clear," saying the suspect was among the 10 dead and that he had likely acted alone.

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  5. #45
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    A priest has been killed in an attack by two armed men on his church in a suburb of Rouen in northern France.

    The attackers entered the church in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray during Mass, taking the priest, Fr Jacques Hamel, 84, and four other people hostage.

    Police later surrounded the church and French TV said shots were fired. Both hostage-takers are now dead.

    The Amaq news agency, linked to so-called Islamic State, said "two IS soldiers" had carried out the attack.

    President Francois Hollande said the men had claimed to be from IS.

    Speaking in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, he said the attackers had committed a "cowardly assassination" and France would fight IS "by all means".

    Pope Francis decried the "pain and horror of this absurd violence".
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...e=news_central
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  6. #46
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default First responder: a BMW driver

    One of the events in Germany, the machete attack on a woman @ Reutlingen, although not IS-related, but a crime of passion does have one relevant aspect:
    A BMW driver then accelerated and knocked him down. After that he lay on the ground and did not move.
    In some reports the driver appeared likely to have been a Muslim. I only cite the source of the quote:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...thern-germany/
    davidbfpo

  7. #47
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Exposure and no "easy answers"

    First the bomb attack @ Ansbach, Bavaria, Germany and a report - in an IS magazine - that the suspect:
    ...had fought with al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. It appears that Daleel later pledged allegiance to Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) after the 2013 split from Nusra....he left Syria to seek treatment after he was wounded in a mortar attack. He travelled on to Germany posing as a refugee.
    (From another source) He was to be deported to Bulgaria under the EU’s Dublin rules, but the move was delayed by his claims of ill health.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-questions-ov/

    Leaving aside whether any agency could have id'd his past in Syria, there is the scale of migration into Germany in 2015, over a million people.

    Second yesterday's murderer in a church in Normandy, France:
    The 19-year-old was under police supervision and wore a tag following his release in March after 10 months of preventative custody for trying to go to Syria....Ordered to live at his parents’ home, he was allowed out between 8.30am and 12.30pm on weekdays, and from 2pm to 6pm on weekends. He was, therefore, within his rights to be out at the time of the attack...
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...adel-kermiche/

    Taking a wider view a French-Algerian commentator:
    The vast majority of the terrorists who have now slaughtered some 250 people in separate incidents across France over the past 18 months were just as well known to the authorities as Kermiche. Many were meant to be in prison, or – again like Kermiche – at least reporting to their local police stations under strict bail terms. Instead they were given more than enough freedom to move across borders and acquire the arms necessary to carry out their carnage pretty much anywhere they chose.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-stop-jacques/

    Kermiche clearly was a "hard case" to change, but France has almost no such state capability (like Germany).
    davidbfpo

  8. #48
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default German insiders add context

    CTC's current issue of Sentinel has a focus on Germany and two analysts from two regional offices of the Federal Office of the Protection of the Constitution and with my emphasis:
    CTC: Several members of the Paris and Brussels attack cell transited through Germany, including through a refugee center in Ulm. To what degree has the migrant crisis produced a security threat to Europe?
    Said: There has been a public outcry bringing together the two big current issues of terrorism and migration. And of course Paris, Brussels, and also Wrzburg and Ansbach showed us there has been a link between the two in some particular cases. But paranoia and hysteria are at risk of overshadowing the actual facts. Since 2015 more than one million refugees have come to Germany, but the federal police office (BKA) has so far received terrorism tips on 400 individuals and has undertaken 40 investigations in this context. The majority of the hints turned out to be unsubstantiated. So when it comes to refugees, you can speak of a very small and dwindling number of suspicious persons who are subject to investigations. Of course there is the danger that persons whom security authorities are not aware of might be involved in plots. But this was also the case before the exodus of Syrian and Iraqi people began, and it should be noted we also had a history of failed or foiled plots in Germany by German citizens or residents well before the recent migrant flows. All in all you can say that the migration wave is an additional challenge for the security apparatus, but it is not the cause for the unprecedented terror threat. The cause for that is the Islamic State and its global supporters
    Link:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/a-vie...fassungsschutz
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-27-2016 at 04:23 PM. Reason: 854v
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  9. #49
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    Default In the short-term, there are unlikely to be any easy answers.

    The last sentence from David Wells thoughtful column in the Australian e-bulletin of the Lowy Institute:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...Dol8CY.twitter

    A "taster":
    While lone actors or self-starters were certainly a concern, they typically struggled to build explosive devices or get access to weaponry without contacting known terrorist or criminal entities. Unfortunately, isolated actors and their cheerleaders overseas have realised this too. As Nice, Orlando and potentially Wurzburg all demonstrate, these unconnected individuals or networks are instead focusing on softer and typically more local targets. And utilising an attack methodology that challenges intelligence agency notions of what behaviour makes an individual 'look like a terrorist'. After all, possessing a knife or renting a truck is no obvious precursor to a terrorist attack.
    davidbfpo

  10. #50
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Simplicity via a tweet by Professor John Horgan, a SME (which does not copy):
    Bottom Line

    Violent extremism is diverse

    Violent extremism is complex

    Violent extremism is detectable

    But that doesn't mean it always is preventable
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-14-2016 at 04:26 PM.
    davidbfpo

  11. #51
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    Default Terrorism in Europe: a 'must read' and more

    The free, online resource Perspectives on Terrorism has a new edition devoted to terrorism in Europe, with many articles and I will draw attention to only one. Needless to say written before the Berlin attack.

    Link to latest issue:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot

    Those who follow CT are probably familiar with the output of a very small Norwegian team, Thomas Hegghammer is one and his article is a 'must read': The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/566/1122

    His conclusion ends with:
    If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse, it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the hard kind. Perhaps Europe needs to spend significantly more to improve education in immigrant-heavy areas. Perhaps we must consider longer prison sentences for terrorism offences. I do not purport to know exactly what might work. However, continuing as we do today, with small, incremental policy adjustments, arguably has a predictable outcome. It is a Europe with much larger intelligence services, an entrenched Muslim economic underclass, and more anti-Muslim sentiment.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-24-2016 at 02:37 PM. Reason: 38,850v
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  12. #52
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    Default Terrorism deaths in Europe since 1970



    Via Twitter
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-27-2016 at 06:50 PM. Reason: 39,155v
    davidbfpo

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    Default Why ISIL Fights in Europe

    Why ISIL Fights in Europe

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

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    Default A Book Review of “Islamist Terrorism in Europe: A History”

    A Book Review of “Islamist Terrorism in Europe: A History”

    Entry Excerpt:



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    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  15. #55
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default From Eta to Stockholm: Is terror more of a threat to Europe than before?

    A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


    Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
    the terror threat hanging over Europeans today is no greater than the one their parents faced.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


    Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371
    True if the numbers tell the whole story, but the communists, Algerian freedom fighters, and Palestinian liberation groups conducted terrorism as a form of communication. They did not seek to wipe out Europeans, they sought to either reduce their support for Israel, liberate Algeria (or Ireland), or sway Europe's political leanings to the left. The character of the new threat is different in purpose, and they do seem constrained by their political ends like the other groups. The USSR would only let their proxy groups go so far, while others were self-constrained because it would be counter productive not to be.

    ISIS, AQ, and others along these lines are unlikely to be self-constrained from killing as many Europeans as possible. Furthermore, they are not always in isolated cells directed by a higher centralized authority, the advent of self-radicalization makes the threat more unpredictable. Still the biggest today to Europe today seems to be over reacting, and a rapid and illogical shift to the far right politically.

  17. #57
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    Default Intent, capability and lethality

    Hat tip to WoTR for this article 'Lone actors -v- remote controlled jihadi terrorism rethinking the threat to the West' by Professor Mullins, an Australian and currently in Germany. The purpose is well explained in this sentence:
    It is therefore important to re-examine the concept of lone-actor terrorism and to try and appreciate where it fits within the overall spectrum of jihadist terrorist activity in the West.
    Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/lo...t-to-the-west/

    This graphic is very useful, especially when the author points out that the numbers in brackets refer to number of fatalities vs number of attacks.


    He ends with:
    The threat to the West is real and we cannot afford to let down our guard, but our adversaries’ intent is far greater than their capabilities. Moreover, this is an indicator of largely successful counter-terrorism. Members of the general public and policymakers alike should understand and appreciate this.
    davidbfpo

  18. #58
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    Default Reforming Transatlantic Counter-Terrorism

    A previously unheard of report by an unknown group, that was published online in October 2016; they are a Central European security group, headquartered @ Bratislava, Slovakia under the title Globsec Policy Institute.
    Link to the 34 pg. report:http://www.cepolicy.org/publications...nter-terrorism

    It is a broad brush review by "wise old heads", Michael Chertoff being the American aboard and in places quite revealing.

    I am just not convinced the solutions are really fit for purpose, if only as the jihadist's focus so far is not on the smaller European nations; nor that what the USA has done structurally is acceptable.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-21-2017 at 05:45 PM. Reason: 47,407v
    davidbfpo

  19. #59
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    Default Jihadist attacks in the West, 400 dead, what can we learn?

    'Fear Thy Neighbour' is a lengthy report from ISPI, George Washington's Program on Extremism and the ICTI in The Hague and summarized in a BBC News item.

    What did the research seek to answer? One author in the BBC item explains:
    Although the vast majority of Islamist attacks are elsewhere in the world, an unprecedented number in Europe and North America - more than 50 in total - have put the authorities under great pressure to prevent further deaths. What do we know of the individuals who carried out the attacks - their life in the West, whether they were known to the authorities and with whom they were working?
    The first look at the data behind the attacks - everything from the age of the perpetrators, to immigration status - offers counter-terrorism officials, and the public, an insight that could help them identify the best responses
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

    The full report, 108 pgs, has yet to be read and is available via:http://www.ispionline.it/it/EBook/Ra...on_web_DEF.pdf
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    'Fear Thy Neighbour' is a lengthy report from ISPI, George Washington's Program on Extremism and the ICTI in The Hague and summarized in a BBC News item.

    What did the research seek to answer? One author in the BBC item explains:
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

    The full report, 108 pgs, has yet to be read and is available via:http://www.ispionline.it/it/EBook/Ra...on_web_DEF.pdf
    Jihadist? But that would imply a Muslim affiliation, whereas these attacks were clearly orchestrated by irreligious, non-aligned and non-ideological "extremists"...

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