Afghanistan's Drug Problem

[JMA]

Pressed for time at the moment, but re this...

What makes you think the ANA or the Afghan government have any interest at all in reducing opium production? Aren't they sharing the profits from opium production?

I have said a number of times that the Karzai regime is both democratically illegitimate and criminally corrupt.

As I said stated in my previous post an ultimatum should be issued to the Karzai regime on the basis that they clean up their act (not only in terms of drugs) or ISAF and all aid is out of there. It would be a good way to get out.

The Taliban were able to eliminate poppy production because they governed the country and there were no limits on the amount or nature of force they were able to apply to do whatever they wanted to do.

Good that you understand that.

The US doesn't want to govern Afghanistan and is not willing to run around shooting people who grow poppies. The Afghan government and army aren't going to shoot people who grow poppies because they get some of the money the poppies bring in. That makes a plan to eradicate poppies by shooting those who grow them a bit fanciful, because neither we nor the Afghan government/army are willing to do the shooting.

I would suggest that the US government makes it a condition of their (and NATO) continued support and aid that the ANA clear of areas of poppy cultivation (using their own methods). This would be monitored by satellite. If the Karzai regime fails to keep its side of the bargain then its bye-bye.

Remember KISS and that (as difficult as it may be for a USian) not everything is negotiable.

[Dayuhan]

I have said a number of times that the Karzai regime is both democratically illegitimate and criminally corrupt.

I've said similar things many times. I'd add that it is also weak, with very limited ability to impose its will on its nominal subordinates.

As I said stated in my previous post an ultimatum should be issued to the Karzai regime on the basis that they clean up their act (not only in terms of drugs) or ISAF and all aid is out of there. It would be a good way to get out...

...I would suggest that the US government makes it a condition of their (and NATO) continued support and aid that the ANA clear of areas of poppy cultivation (using their own methods). This would be monitored by satellite. If the Karzai regime fails to keep its side of the bargain then its bye-bye.

I agree that this would be an excellent way to get out, but I don't think it would have much influence on opium production. Even in the unlikely event that Karzai wanted to stamp out production, I doubt that he has the ability to persuade or compel his nominal subordinates to tear up one of their largest sources of income. I think he'd make some big promises followed by a very thin charade of compliance, and come back with "we tried". Then it would be up to the US to decide whether they want to follow through on the ultimatum or not.

Remember KISS and that (as difficult as it may be for a USian) not everything is negotiable.

We're talking about the US issuing a non-negotiable ultimatum to Karzai, knowing that he probably hasn't the capacity to comply even if he wants to, which he doesn't. That's all well and good if the US willing to back up the ultimatum with action. If they aren't willing to dump the whole thing and walk away, they shouldn't issue the ultimatum. I personally have no problem with dumping the whole thing and walking away, but my opinion means nothing. The worst thing they could do is issue such an ultimatum if they're not willing to back it up.

That process might provide a good excuse for an exit, but again, I don't think it would have much influence on opium production, unless the Taliban take over and suppress it again. They might not suppress it even if they do take over: drug money is as addictive as drugs, and they've been sucking on that teat for a while now. Obviously we don't know what would happen, but I don't think we can assume that because the Taliban suppressed opium production last time around they will do it again if they get back in.

Again, worth noting that even when the Taliban had reduced Afghan production to minimal levels, heroin remained available on American and European streets. As long as demand and profitability are in place, someone will move in and pick up supply. That suggests to me that if we want to deal with the drug issue we should target demand and profitability, not supply, not that my opinion means anything.