Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[jcustis]

PBS material on the making of the upheaval:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...source=toparea

[Surferbeetle]

Then candidate Sarkozy's position on Francafrique in The Economist, Dec 13th 2006, The glory days are passing, France debates the need to move beyond its traditional spheres of influence

Could all this change under a new president? Whoever is elected may well order a full defence review, which would have to look long and hard at Africa. For his part, Mr Sarkozy, with his tough immigration policy, has a hard-nosed approach. In a bold speech in Benin earlier this year he declared that it was time to stop looking at the foreign presence in Africa as a zero-sum game of influence. France, he said, needed a more transparent, less paternalistic relationship with Africa. “Relations between modern states must not depend only on the quality of personal links between heads of state,” he added, in a thinly disguised jibe at Mr Chirac and the phenomenon known as Francafrique, “but on a frank and objective dialogue.”

As for the Middle East, both Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal want to warm up relations with Israel, suggesting that under either France may temper its Arabist instincts. Israel knows this. Two days before meeting Mr Sarkozy in Paris, Ms Livni dined with Ms Royal in Jerusalem. To Israel's delight, Ms Royal has stuck by her unorthodox line that Iran should be stopped from enriching uranium even for civilian use. France has usually argued that its influence in the region depends on its credibility with Arab friends. The next president may put that doctrine to the test.

From the Economist, No winds of change, Despite Nicolas Sarkozy's rhetoric, France's new Africa policy is a lot like the old one, Jun 1st 2010

In some ways Mr Sarkozy has tried to turn the page on what is known as françafrique: the backroom network of personal, business and political links, fed by petro-dollars and backed by left and right, that has traditionally characterised French Africa policy. He has updated old defence agreements. He has reoriented France’s military presence on the continent, often seen locally as a sign of post-colonial paternalism, towards the Horn of Africa. Last year Mr Sarkozy opened a new base in Abu Dhabi, and this year he decided to scale back the one in Senegal.

Yet old habits die hard. Mr Sarkozy may no longer have installed at the Elysée Palace a “Monsieur Afrique”, as Charles de Gaulle called his special Africa fixer, Jacques Foccart. But informal contacts still count. Two years ago, Jean-Marie Bockel, Mr Sarkozy’s overseas-aid minister, lost his job not long after deploring the “weight of bad habits, the preservation of individual interests, the defence of certain inherited rentier situations” in françafrique. According to Robert Bourgi, a lawyer to Omar Bongo—a former president of Gabon, who died last year—Mr Bockel went on the instructions of Mr Bongo.

Foreign Policy, Le Scandal, The Arab world's revolutions have exposed the moral bankruptcy of France's foreign policy, BY ERIC PAPE | FEBRUARY 25, 2011

Two months into 2011, the transformation of North Africa has exposed a slew of moral failings in French policy in the Arab world, and it has raised a flurry of questions about Alliot-Marie's ethics, judgment, and veracity. Political observers and even government ministers are already debating who might take her place, perhaps in the coming days. The French diplomatic corps is increasingly turning on the president as his Middle East policy continues to disintegrate.

[davidbfpo]

Oddly there has been little coverage of the 'new' Egypt and the recent referendum had barely a mention - I expect all the reporters are in Libya - so this IISS Strategic Comment is welcome.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ical-upheaval/

Penultimate paragraph:

Egypt continues to suffer from aftershocks from the revolution, including episodic violence and economic disruptions. By supporting the army's plans, Egyptians have made clear their preference for order and a strong state. The army is not by nature inclined towards radical change. However, as it continues to oversee the transition, it will need to demonstrate creativity as it seeks to protect its institutional position while not standing in the way of change.

I do wonder how such a nation can do without an effective and legitimate police. There has been mention of traffic police being back on the streets.

[outletclock]

From The Monkey Cage (www.themonkeycage.org)

http://www.themonkeycage.org/2011/03...down.html#more

BLUF:

The argument I made is that urban social networks can be powerful underpinnings for mobilization, and that the onset of insurgency hinges in crucial ways on how states react to this urban mobilization. State strategies and policies, driven by the interests of regimes and security forces, are more important in shaping what happens to urban uprisings than the raw stock of government capacity and material power. The fate of rebellions, given surging social mobilization, rests on fundamentally political decisions about whether to unleash extreme violence on urban protesters and insurgents.

Regards
OC