Page 2 of 17 FirstFirst 123412 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 332

Thread: Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

  1. #21
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    33

    Default Terence Lee

    I'm guessing "Terence Lee" (I am not Terence Lee) is not the name you were expecting on a post on Egypt's current situation. However, for those of you with access - alas, I'm guessing, not many - it might be interesting to check out the following articles:

    The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule
    Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia
    http://cps.sagepub.com/content/42/5/640.abstract

    and

    Military Cohesion and Regime Maintenance
    Explaining the Role of the Military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia
    http://afs.sagepub.com/content/32/1/80.abstract

    Obviously these deal with "Asian" (are the quotations relevant or necessary?) cases, but perhaps the insights might be applicable to the Egypt. And while the articles themselves might be inaccessible or, at least, expensive, the abstracts might be worth the quick read.

    Regards
    OC

  2. #22
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    33

    Default (No) Copyright Issues

    It just hit me: I can probably post the abstracts of the two articles without running afoul of any copyright issues (apologies in advance if I am wrong).

    The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule
    Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia
    Terence Lee
    National University of Singapore
    http://cps.sagepub.com/content/42/5/640.abstract
    Studies of transitions from authoritarian rule have shown that militaries play decisive roles in authoritarian breakdowns. The military possesses coercive resources that can suppress any challenge to authoritarian rule. This article explains why and under what conditions militaries in authoritarian regimes, when faced with popular demonstrations, will support the path of political liberalization. The study argues that armed forces are likely to back transitions from authoritarianism when there is intense conflict within the military; and arising from these contestations, marginalized officers (losers) either enter into a pact with the domestic opposition or have foreign support to act against the regime. The losers' decision to turn against authoritarianism is a move to eliminate the regime and their rivals within the armed forces. The author illustrates this argument in the February 1986 Philippines People Power revolution and May 1998 collapse of Indonesia's President Suharto's regime.
    Military Cohesion and Regime Maintenance
    Explaining the Role of the Military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia
    Terence Lee
    University of Washington
    http://afs.sagepub.com/content/32/1/80.abstract
    Why are certain militaries in authoritarian regimes more effective in carrying out the task of regime maintenance than others? This is the central question of this article, which explains the Chinese and Indonesian militaries’differing responses to government orders to suppress the Tiananmen Square demonstrations of 1989 and the protests prior to the downfall of Indonesian President Suharto in 1998. The article argues that the varying level of effectiveness in dealing with protestors is attributable to how governments employ institutional controls or “stick” mechanisms and the effect these controls have on military organizational cohesion. Specifically, the article notes that the efficacy of a regime's institutional controls does not just center on having mechanisms to monitor, prevent, and punish malfeasance within the military. Instead, militaries are likely to be successful in suppressing demonstrations if authoritarian leaders do not implement policies that undermine the organizational integrity of the armed forces.
    Regards
    OC
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-29-2011 at 10:33 AM. Reason: Abstracts in quotes

  3. #23
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    LINK.

    If the article at the link is correct. Shades of Kermit Roosevelt...

    As my Mother said, be careful what you wish for -- you may get it. We'll see how this works out for us -- and them...
    Legal, trusted, and certain means of influencing government are far superior to illegal means. But when Illegal means are the only option, they are far superior to oppression and despotism. But this could go bad in a 100 different ways to be sure.

    The only thing worse than acting out illegally in the pursuit of liberty is to do nothing.

    Bigger picture: It is the power of these suppressed populaces and the role of the West in promoting, enabling and protecting these governments that has fueled the rise of Islamist organizations. This is what AQ has fed upon. If the US plays this smart, and empowers self-determination (which may mean that many of these leaders stay in power, open talks with their populaces, and implement reasonable reforms). If the US. plays this smart we have the opportunity to change perceptions about our role and intent in the Middle East in ways that can be far more effective in turning the tide of Islamist terrorism than any amount of security force capacity building or CT activities can.

    AQ has been waging UW to stir up these populaces, but the populaces are responsive to their message due to the political (and economic) conditions that they live within. The US really needs to abandon COIN (to colonial and rooted in sustaining the status quo) and CT (only mows the tall grass, but does not address the roots) or even development (giving a man a fish when what he really wants is respect and liberty) with a more holistic "counter-UW" campaign that blends all of these things and more in a much better balanced and refocused mix that is aimed at root causes.

    I remain optimistic in what is happening; but ever concerned that smart people with bad info will make bad decisions; or that the mob will be directed in ways that are ultimately counter productive.

    Of note, Jordan is picking up steam as well. A map of where foreign fighters who traveled to Iraq to fight with AQ is as clear of a crystal ball as any as to where this thing is most likely to spread to next. Diplomats are hopefully meeting with all those governments to urge them to preemptively begin the reform process.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  4. #24
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    From Joe Felter's study on where Foreign Fighters come from back in 2005
    http://www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/pdf/...r.19.Dec07.pdf
    (There is a bar graph that provides a great visual in the document)

    Country of Origin
    Saudi Arabia was by far the most common nationality of the fighters’ in this sample; 41% (244) of the 595 records that included the fighter’s nationality indicated they were of Saudi Arabian origin.7
    Libya was the next most common country of origin, with 18.8% (112) of the fighters listing their nationality stating they hailed from Libya. Syria, Yemen,
    7 After recording and comparing the information contained in the translated records, the CTC determined that 34 records were likely duplicates of the same individual. These records were deleted from the sample studied.
    and Algeria were the next most common origin countries with 8.2% (49), 8.1% (48), and 7.2% (43), respectively. Moroccans accounted for 6.1% (36) of the records and Jordanians 1.9% (11).8
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2...fighters_N.htm

    In a Dec 2010 article it points out that foreign fighters are once again flowing into Iraq. I would argue that the fastest way to stem that flow is change our approach with the government of the countries these men come from.

    But a Mideast counterterrorism official said an estimated 250 foreign fighters entered Iraq in October alone. He said they came through the Syrian city of Homs, a hub for Syrian Muslim fundamentalists that is run mostly by Tunisians and Algerians. Other fighters have come from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Yemen.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-29-2011 at 01:28 PM.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  5. #25
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17 5' 11N, Longitude 120 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    This is what AQ has fed upon. If the US plays this smart, and empowers self-determination (which may mean that many of these leaders stay in power, open talks with their populaces, and implement reasonable reforms). If the US. plays this smart we have the opportunity to change perceptions about our role and intent in the Middle East in ways that can be far more effective in turning the tide of Islamist terrorism than any amount of security force capacity building or CT activities can....

    ...Diplomats are hopefully meeting with all those governments to urge them to preemptively begin the reform process.
    I still don't see how we're supposed to "empower self-determination", in any specific terms. Western diplomats urging reform will have about as much impact as an online petition. These rulers don't give a damn what Western diplomats say; they never have. They've heard the refrain so many times they could sing it in their sleep. It has no impact at all.

    The link between domestic conditions, perceived US responsibility for those conditions, and AQ's recruitment remains speculative. AQ was able to recruit fighters quite successfully for jihad against the Soviet Union, which had nothing at all to do with domestic conditions in the countries where recruitment was taking place. "Expel the infidel from the land of the faithful" is a compelling narrative (at least to young men addled by religion and testosterone), and would likely be so even in a democracy. Certainly AQ's efforts to promote jihad against Arab governments have met with no notable success: they're really only able to sell the story when they are fighting foreign invaders.

  6. #26
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    1,665

    Default

    I still don't see how we're supposed to "empower self-determination", in any specific terms. Western diplomats urging reform will have about as much impact as an online petition. These rulers don't give a damn what Western diplomats say; they never have. They've heard the refrain so many times they could sing it in their sleep. It has no impact at all.
    I disagree if these urgings were actually tied to incentives or punishments. The stick of withdrawing $1.2 bn in annual U.S. military aid could prove an effective incentive for an army divided on whether or not to open fire on peaceful demonstrators, for instance.

  7. #27
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I still don't see how we're supposed to "empower self-determination", in any specific terms. Western diplomats urging reform will have about as much impact as an online petition. These rulers don't give a damn what Western diplomats say; they never have. They've heard the refrain so many times they could sing it in their sleep. It has no impact at all.
    Absolutely right. Populations are looking for signals of the degree of backing that authoritarians have--polite complaints in private have zero effect.
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  8. #28
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Pointers

    Abu M's recommendations on who is a true, real expert on Egypt:http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...ing-about.html

    A profile of the new Deputy President:
    The AFP has a lengthy profile of Omar Suleiman, who you can see here during his swearing-in ceremony, which I'll reprint in full.
    Link and the entry is at 1757 hrs: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ests-live.html

    On the relationship between US and Egyptian military:
    The officer corps of Egypt’s powerful military has been educated at defense colleges in the United States for 30 years. The Egyptian armed forces have about 1,000 American M1A1 Abrams tanks, which the United States allows to be built on Egyptian soil. Egypt permits the American military to stage major operations from its bases, and has always guaranteed the Americans passage through the Suez Canal.

    The relationship between the Egyptian and American militaries is, in fact, so close that it was no surprise on Friday to find two dozen senior Egyptian military officials at the Pentagon, halfway through an annual week of meetings, lunches and dinners with their American counterparts.

    (Later)American military officials said on Friday that they had had no formal discussions with their Egyptian counterparts at the Pentagon about how to handle the uprising. No guidance was given, said Gen. James E. Cartwright, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In other words, we didn’t say anything to them about how they should handle it, and they didn’t tell us about how they were going to handle it.
    From:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/wo...y.html?_r=2&hp
    davidbfpo

  9. #29
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default FW Engdahl on Color Revolutions

    Different perspective on the various revolutions going on.

    http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/index.html

  10. #30
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    53

    Default seen



    Our close personal friend.

  11. #31
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    $1.5B in aid last year is a powerful carrot. We have sticks too. The US employs carrots and sticks around the globe to promote national interests on a regular basis. To "empower self-determination" has never been an issue of lack of means, nor for want of proven ways. It is a matter of priorities as to what type of behavior (ours) we understand to be most important to serving our national interests.

    No one said to send a petition. We tried that with King George, and he sent us his Army and Navy instead. This needs to not be done in public accusations and veiled threats over the airways either. This is the work for private rooms with small audiences, between senior leaders. When the affected people see their government making reasonable accomodations of their reasonable concerns following such meetings they will be able to deduce that we have taken a more neutral position.

    There is a big difference between putting hard presser on an ally to do something he'd prefer not to do, and dictating exactly how they do things (mandating western-style womens rights, western-style democracy, etc). Few things are black and white.

    What I find interesting on this forum is that when someone suggests "Black is not working and we need to change." the typical counter is "But White would not work either." Agreed. The answer lies between the two, and is likely closer to black than white in most cases, as simple changes of nuance and perception can have a tremendous impact.

    Also, the US has no duty to "fix" Egypt, Tunisia, or any of the many other similarly situated allies we have in that theater. We do, however, have a duty to address the perception that we promote the security and sustainment of these regimes against the express will of their populaces.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  12. #32
    Council Member Wargames Mark's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Wherever you go, there you are...
    Posts
    54

    Default

    ElBaradei = Bazargan = Kerensky

    Very, very bad news:
    • Suez Canal
    • Hamas
    • Al Qaida (This is the home of the Qutbists, even of al-Zawahiri)
    There are three kinds of people in this world:
    Those who can count, and those who can't.

  13. #33
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Art imitates life. Life imitates art.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DbFYsi9iSg

    Reports say the army has been ordered to shoot when it sees fit. Military helicopters and jet fighters fly over major locations as the numbers of protesters multiply there.
    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162767.html

    CAIRO In the wake of sustained protests and riots calling for the ouster of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, police are vanishing from the streets of Cairo and other major cities across Egypt. In that vacuum armed gangs of men have attacked at least four jails and freed hundreds of radical Muslim militants as well as thousands of other inmates.
    http://www.thecypresstimes.com/artic...IN_EGYPT/39572
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  14. #34
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default On the other hand...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    What I find interesting on this forum is that when someone suggests "Black is not working and we need to change." the typical counter is "But White would not work either." Agreed. The answer lies between the two, and is likely closer to black than white in most cases, as simple changes of nuance and perception can have a tremendous impact.
    I've noticed that when people on this Board present gray arguments as opposed to "Black is not working" the discussion tends to seek what shade of gray is best instead of descending into a a black methodology versus white methodology argument...

    For example, this "The answer lies between the two, and is likely closer to black than white in most cases." colors your comment -- pun intended.

    Some would've said "The answer lies between the two and the issue is to determine just where..."

  15. #35
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    861

    Default

    The US should vigorously and publicly support the notion of democracy and human rights. That is not to say that the US should somehow intervene to bring democracy to X or Y. Every case is different and in MOST cases the US would do well to do nothing rather than doing something stupid (those seem to be the only choices allowed by the state dept and pentagon in many cases).
    Every case being different, the case in Egypt right now is that the US should publicly press for democratic reform and should work behind the scenes to have the army kick out Mubarak and install a functional interim regime and open up the media and phones and so on. That would be best for the US in every way. To work to "stabilize" Mubarak would be the height of folly...
    US policy makers have spent so many decades propping up dictators and being afraid of democracy, they do not seem to be able to let things go a little...if they do, they may be pleasantly surprised at the outcome in many cases...and they will not do worse than they are doing right now in almost every case.

  16. #36
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Thumbs up Absolutely. Yes. But...

    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    The US should vigorously and publicly support the notion of democracy and human rights...
    Agreed.
    US policy makers have spent so many decades propping up dictators and being afraid of democracy, they do not seem to be able to let things go a little...if they do, they may be pleasantly surprised at the outcome in many cases...and they will not do worse than they are doing right now in almost every case.
    Agree with that as well. However, after 45 years of US government service if there's one thing I know it's that very, very few who work for that entity want to take a chance on being even a little bit wrong, much less way wrong...

    That said, hopefully most will realize the truth of what you write: "...and they will not do worse than they are doing right now in almost every case."

  17. #37
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    The US is getting in Egypt a bit of a dose of our own medicine in terms of "US created conflicts of interest."

    We've created a tremendous conflict of interest for Pakistan that is tearing at the fabric of the government's ability to keep a handle on things as they seek to balance their interest in maintaining positive relations with the US against their interest in being able to exert control over Afghanistan through their Pashtun agents. The US flipping on that issue from our position during to Soviet occupation to our position for our own occupation is creating that conflict.

    Now we find ourselves caught in our own web in Egypt where we have overlooked (beyond calling the government out in the odd speech) the poor governance of the Mubarak regime because we valued having an important Arab ally and stability for Israel more highly. Now we face a populace that questions how the U.S could support such a regime. This is what happens when one acts in a manner that is out of synch with their professed values. It will be very positive for US influence once we have finished sorting through these inconsistencies, and will have a tremendous disempowering effect on AQ as well. But we have a long ways to go on that little mission, as the list of such governments is fairly long...
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  18. #38
    Council Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    4,021

    Default What is the ...

    ... notion of democracy and human rights ....
    in Pakistan vs Egypt vs USA ?

    Are they the same ? Or, different ? If different, what are the differences ?

    Cheers

    Mike

  19. #39
    Council Member carl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Denver on occasion
    Posts
    2,460

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    We've created a tremendous conflict of interest for Pakistan that is tearing at the fabric of the government's ability to keep a handle on things as they seek to balance their interest in maintaining positive relations with the US against their interest in being able to exert control over Afghanistan through their Pashtun agents.
    Is the Pak Army/ISI's desire to exert control over Aghanistan one we should honor any more than India's desire that they don't?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  20. #40
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Cool Good question that, Carl. It brought something to mind...

    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Is the Pak Army/ISI's desire to exert control over Aghanistan one we should honor any more than India's desire that they don't?
    When I was wandering about the Region years ago, the Afghans liked the US and Americans. A good part of that was, they said, due to the fact that only they and we had beaten the British, not once but twice (actually in all four cases, the British decided the hassle wasn't worth the effort but no sense being pedantic...).

    They were nearly neutral on Indians, mentioning only their status as kuffar. They did not like Russians or the British at all -- and they hated the Pakistanis due to their excessive desire for control of Afghanistan and the Pakistani attempts to divide the Pathan (as they were then). There were also some flatlander comments...

    Of course, that was forty years ago and it's probably changed a bit -- but I bet not much...

Similar Threads

  1. EUCOM Economic Analysis - Part I
    By AdamG in forum Europe
    Replies: 519
    Last Post: 08-03-2015, 06:36 PM
  2. Revolutionary Patterns
    By TROUFION in forum Historians
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 08-25-2007, 04:27 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •