Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[Pete]

Why all this concern about U.S.-made stuff -- tear gas canisters, tanks, APCs -- being shown on TV? The public relations aspect is fairly trivial in the grand scheme of things. Some years ago the same thing happened with the WP rounds used by Israel.

[Fuchs]

Why all this concern about U.S.-made stuff -- tear gas canisters, tanks, APCs -- being shown on TV? The public relations aspect is fairly trivial in the grand scheme of things. Some years ago the same thing happened with the WP rounds used by Israel.

Tom Clancy didn't popularize WP rounds. He idealized the M1 Abrams, and the tank has certainly the highest recognition rate world-wide.

Did you never wonder why the baddies in Hollywood movies almost never use AR-15s? Such a "public relations aspect" could be an eye-opener.

Besides; my forum post here was fairly trivial in the grand scheme of things - why did you respond to it?

[Bob's World]

President Obama breaks his silence. Best speech I have ever heard him make.

As to the Egyptian Army, coming from one who served proudly with the Egyptian Army during the Gulf War: This is the wild card. Egyptian soldiers are about 180 out from western soldiers. An Egyptian soldier will do exactly what he is told and not think to question his superior. He will continue to execute a task until told to stop. He will not worry about why he is doing it, he is told to do it and that is all that matters. He has no concept of "commander's intent." He does what he is told, no more and no less.

However. Unless they have changed, they are draftees and serve two year enlistments. They have no NCO corps. Often a rifle platoon has more college educated privates than the Company has college educated officers. The officer corp are lifers, but the men are civilians in uniform

Assessment: If push comes to shove the Army will follow orders. If shove comes to something more dramatic, I suspect the soldiers will join the civilians and leave the officers to their own devices.

[TheCurmudgeon]

President Obama breaks his silence. Best speech I have ever heard him make.

As to the Egyptian Army, coming from one who served proudly with the Egyptian Army during the Gulf War: This is the wild card. Egyptian soldiers are about 180 out from western soldiers. An Egyptian soldier will do exactly what he is told and not think to question his superior. He will continue to execute a task until told to stop. He will not worry about why he is doing it, he is told to do it and that is all that matters. He has no concept of "commander's intent." He does what he is told, no more and no less.

However. Unless they have changed, they are draftees and serve two year enlistments. They have no NCO corps. Often a rifle platoon has more college educated privates than the Company has college educated officers. The officer corp are lifers, but the men are civilians in uniform

Assessment: If push comes to shove the Army will follow orders. If shove comes to something more dramatic, I suspect the soldiers will join the civilians and leave the officers to their own devices.

I think you are dead on. The Army will ultimately decide what happens to the remaining existing government.

The question in my mind is what will replace it - a more democratic institution, a hard-line Islamic government. or a civil war between the two.

[Ken White]

LINK.

If the article at the link is correct. Shades of Kermit Roosevelt...

As my Mother said, be careful what you wish for -- you may get it. We'll see how this works out for us -- and them...

[outletclock]

I'm guessing "Terence Lee" (I am not Terence Lee) is not the name you were expecting on a post on Egypt's current situation. However, for those of you with access - alas, I'm guessing, not many - it might be interesting to check out the following articles:

The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule
Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia
http://cps.sagepub.com/content/42/5/640.abstract

and

Military Cohesion and Regime Maintenance
Explaining the Role of the Military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia
http://afs.sagepub.com/content/32/1/80.abstract

Obviously these deal with "Asian" (are the quotations relevant or necessary?) cases, but perhaps the insights might be applicable to the Egypt. And while the articles themselves might be inaccessible or, at least, expensive, the abstracts might be worth the quick read.

Regards
OC

[outletclock]

It just hit me: I can probably post the abstracts of the two articles without running afoul of any copyright issues (apologies in advance if I am wrong).

The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule
Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia
Terence Lee
National University of Singapore
http://cps.sagepub.com/content/42/5/640.abstract

Studies of transitions from authoritarian rule have shown that militaries play decisive roles in authoritarian breakdowns. The military possesses coercive resources that can suppress any challenge to authoritarian rule. This article explains why and under what conditions militaries in authoritarian regimes, when faced with popular demonstrations, will support the path of political liberalization. The study argues that armed forces are likely to back transitions from authoritarianism when there is intense conflict within the military; and arising from these contestations, marginalized officers (losers) either enter into a pact with the domestic opposition or have foreign support to act against the regime. The losers' decision to turn against authoritarianism is a move to eliminate the regime and their rivals within the armed forces. The author illustrates this argument in the February 1986 Philippines People Power revolution and May 1998 collapse of Indonesia's President Suharto's regime.

Military Cohesion and Regime Maintenance
Explaining the Role of the Military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia
Terence Lee
University of Washington
http://afs.sagepub.com/content/32/1/80.abstract

Why are certain militaries in authoritarian regimes more effective in carrying out the task of regime maintenance than others? This is the central question of this article, which explains the Chinese and Indonesian militaries’differing responses to government orders to suppress the Tiananmen Square demonstrations of 1989 and the protests prior to the downfall of Indonesian President Suharto in 1998. The article argues that the varying level of effectiveness in dealing with protestors is attributable to how governments employ institutional controls or “stick” mechanisms and the effect these controls have on military organizational cohesion. Specifically, the article notes that the efficacy of a regime's institutional controls does not just center on having mechanisms to monitor, prevent, and punish malfeasance within the military. Instead, militaries are likely to be successful in suppressing demonstrations if authoritarian leaders do not implement policies that undermine the organizational integrity of the armed forces.

Regards
OC

[Bob's World]

LINK.

If the article at the link is correct. Shades of Kermit Roosevelt...

As my Mother said, be careful what you wish for -- you may get it. We'll see how this works out for us -- and them...

Legal, trusted, and certain means of influencing government are far superior to illegal means. But when Illegal means are the only option, they are far superior to oppression and despotism. But this could go bad in a 100 different ways to be sure.

The only thing worse than acting out illegally in the pursuit of liberty is to do nothing.

Bigger picture: It is the power of these suppressed populaces and the role of the West in promoting, enabling and protecting these governments that has fueled the rise of Islamist organizations. This is what AQ has fed upon. If the US plays this smart, and empowers self-determination (which may mean that many of these leaders stay in power, open talks with their populaces, and implement reasonable reforms). If the US. plays this smart we have the opportunity to change perceptions about our role and intent in the Middle East in ways that can be far more effective in turning the tide of Islamist terrorism than any amount of security force capacity building or CT activities can.

AQ has been waging UW to stir up these populaces, but the populaces are responsive to their message due to the political (and economic) conditions that they live within. The US really needs to abandon COIN (to colonial and rooted in sustaining the status quo) and CT (only mows the tall grass, but does not address the roots) or even development (giving a man a fish when what he really wants is respect and liberty) with a more holistic "counter-UW" campaign that blends all of these things and more in a much better balanced and refocused mix that is aimed at root causes.

I remain optimistic in what is happening; but ever concerned that smart people with bad info will make bad decisions; or that the mob will be directed in ways that are ultimately counter productive.

Of note, Jordan is picking up steam as well. A map of where foreign fighters who traveled to Iraq to fight with AQ is as clear of a crystal ball as any as to where this thing is most likely to spread to next. Diplomats are hopefully meeting with all those governments to urge them to preemptively begin the reform process.

[Bob's World]

From Joe Felter's study on where Foreign Fighters come from back in 2005
http://www.ctc.usma.edu/harmony/pdf/...r.19.Dec07.pdf
(There is a bar graph that provides a great visual in the document)

Country of Origin
Saudi Arabia was by far the most common nationality of the fighters’ in this sample; 41% (244) of the 595 records that included the fighter’s nationality indicated they were of Saudi Arabian origin.7
Libya was the next most common country of origin, with 18.8% (112) of the fighters listing their nationality stating they hailed from Libya. Syria, Yemen,
7 After recording and comparing the information contained in the translated records, the CTC determined that 34 records were likely duplicates of the same individual. These records were deleted from the sample studied.
and Algeria were the next most common origin countries with 8.2% (49), 8.1% (48), and 7.2% (43), respectively. Moroccans accounted for 6.1% (36) of the records and Jordanians 1.9% (11).8

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2...fighters_N.htm

In a Dec 2010 article it points out that foreign fighters are once again flowing into Iraq. I would argue that the fastest way to stem that flow is change our approach with the government of the countries these men come from.

But a Mideast counterterrorism official said an estimated 250 foreign fighters entered Iraq in October alone. He said they came through the Syrian city of Homs, a hub for Syrian Muslim fundamentalists that is run mostly by Tunisians and Algerians. Other fighters have come from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Yemen.

[Dayuhan]

This is what AQ has fed upon. If the US plays this smart, and empowers self-determination (which may mean that many of these leaders stay in power, open talks with their populaces, and implement reasonable reforms). If the US. plays this smart we have the opportunity to change perceptions about our role and intent in the Middle East in ways that can be far more effective in turning the tide of Islamist terrorism than any amount of security force capacity building or CT activities can....

...Diplomats are hopefully meeting with all those governments to urge them to preemptively begin the reform process.

I still don't see how we're supposed to "empower self-determination", in any specific terms. Western diplomats urging reform will have about as much impact as an online petition. These rulers don't give a damn what Western diplomats say; they never have. They've heard the refrain so many times they could sing it in their sleep. It has no impact at all.

The link between domestic conditions, perceived US responsibility for those conditions, and AQ's recruitment remains speculative. AQ was able to recruit fighters quite successfully for jihad against the Soviet Union, which had nothing at all to do with domestic conditions in the countries where recruitment was taking place. "Expel the infidel from the land of the faithful" is a compelling narrative (at least to young men addled by religion and testosterone), and would likely be so even in a democracy. Certainly AQ's efforts to promote jihad against Arab governments have met with no notable success: they're really only able to sell the story when they are fighting foreign invaders.

[Wargames Mark]

ElBaradei = Bazargan = Kerensky

Very, very bad news:

• Suez Canal
• Hamas
• Al Qaida (This is the home of the Qutbists, even of al-Zawahiri)

[AdamG]

Art imitates life. Life imitates art.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DbFYsi9iSg

Reports say the army has been ordered to shoot when it sees fit. Military helicopters and jet fighters fly over major locations as the numbers of protesters multiply there.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162767.html

CAIRO – In the wake of sustained protests and riots calling for the ouster of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, police are vanishing from the streets of Cairo and other major cities across Egypt. In that vacuum armed gangs of men have attacked at least four jails and freed hundreds of radical Muslim militants as well as thousands of other inmates.

http://www.thecypresstimes.com/artic...IN_EGYPT/39572