Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[Entropy]

Well as your own Daniel Patrick Moynihan has articulated so well that the intelligence community has done little more than disappoint in all respects.

Where he got it wrong (IMHO) was to promote the absorption of the CIA into the State Department. That would have been catastrophic as it has now finally been confirmed (thank you Wikileaks) that the State Department is even more incompetent than the CIA (if that is possible).

I would love to hear of any list of CIA successes since their inception in 1947... should I hold my breath?

Did anyone predict what happened in Egypt? Not that I'm aware of. Emergent phenomena cannot be predicted except through guesswork.

And yes, intelligence comes with a lot of opportunity for failure and it is (or should be) a humbling profession.

I personally have never much liked the CIA, but I won't deny them their successes. If you aren't aware of any, then I suggest you read any of Jeffrey Richelson's books on the agency and intelligence community.

Well, was not the Al Qaeda/Saddam connection one of the rationales for starting that war? Used a lot of impressive war machinery in that one.

Then I seem to remember the whole Afghanistan thing started because Al Qaeda was allowed safe haven there. More impressive stuff used there and lots of troops.

So there we have Iraq and Afghanistan... and how come chose to ignore that?

As I recall, Iraq and Afghanistan didn't exactly turn out as expected and, given the state of the USA, I doubt the American people will support similar invasions elsewhere - even if one believes such invasions are necessary and appropriate given the threat posed by AQ. Maybe it's different where you live, but here I think the idea that invading countries with large conventional forces to rout out terrorist organizations is pretty much bankrupt.

[AdamG]

This posting in it's entirety is worth reading, but this passage was particularly telling -

"A man respects people who are different. While Muslim protesters were attending Friday Prayers, Christians formed a human wall to protect them. On Sunday when Christian protesters performed Mass, Muslims stood watch to protect them. There was no slurring in the protests. People who attended were of different races, religions, and social backgrounds; black and white, Muslim and Christian, rich and poor, we stood together. If people deep down inside had a certain hatred for others due to these differences, the protests helped them replace this hatred with understanding. In the end we were all the same. We were all Egyptian, and we all wanted freedom."

http://artofmanliness.com/2011/02/11...an-revolution/

[JMA]

Did anyone predict what happened in Egypt? Not that I'm aware of. Emergent phenomena cannot be predicted except through guesswork.

And yes, intelligence comes with a lot of opportunity for failure and it is (or should be) a humbling profession.

I personally have never much liked the CIA, but I won't deny them their successes. If you aren't aware of any, then I suggest you read any of Jeffrey Richelson's books on the agency and intelligence community.

What? You can't even provide one success the CIA have had? That's sad.

As I recall, Iraq and Afghanistan didn't exactly turn out as expected and, given the state of the USA, I doubt the American people will support similar invasions elsewhere - even if one believes such invasions are necessary and appropriate given the threat posed by AQ. Maybe it's different where you live, but here I think the idea that invading countries with large conventional forces to rout out terrorist organizations is pretty much bankrupt.

Well whatever you think it happened before and may well be likely to happen again.

And all this brings us back to the point that IMHO the US would be better served by cutting back on the incompetent CIA and the State department drastically than doing same to a military currently involved in two wars. The military cuts can come later.

[Entropy]

What? You can't even provide one success the CIA have had? That's sad.

Of course I can, I was simply pointing you to references where you could find out for yourself. There's always google too. Here are some terms for you: U2 (not the band, that plane), Oxcart, Corona. You can search the for the CIA's role in burying the missile and bomber gaps with the Soviets. More recently, and contrary to the claims of one Daniel Patrick Moynihan, you can read this. That should at least get you started. There are actually a lot of successes. Of course there are a lot of failures too.

Well whatever you think it happened before and may well be likely to happen again.

And all this brings us back to the point that IMHO the US would be better served by cutting back on the incompetent CIA and the State department drastically than doing same to a military currently involved in two wars. The military cuts can come later.

The CIA is only one part of the intelligence community. As a result of the 2004 intelligence reforms, it's a smaller part as several functions were taken away from it. What specifically do you think should be cut?

As for the military, we waste hundreds of billions each year. I think we could use some cuts and regardless cuts are inevitable given our government's fiscal situation.