Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[davidbfpo]

An IISS Strategic Comment, that includes:

The Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), won over 36% of the vote.......

The real surprise, however, came from the hardline Salafist Nour party, which won 24% of the vote. Long absent from formal politics but focused on preaching their puritanical interpretation of Islam, the Salafis at first seemed fragmented. But this weakness was overcome by considerable resources, good organisation and relentless identity-based campaigning. Pious but so far politically inactive Egyptians came out in support of the Salafis. Many conservative Egyptians traditionally attracted to the Brotherhood probably shifted their votes to the Salafis despite significant political and doctrinal differences between the two groups...

The main liberal coalition, known as the Egyptian Bloc, came third with only 13% in the first round. Together with smaller groups, secular parties gained a meagre fifth of the vote.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...-to-democracy/

[tequila]

An Egyptian army officer's diary

...
After Mubarak fell and the rule of Scaf (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) began, the top brass moved quickly to secure the loyalty of all mid-level and junior officers. Whenever a big Friday street demonstration or rally in Tahrir Square took place we would all receive a bonus of between 250 and 500 Egyptian pounds (£26-52), whether or not we had anything to do with policing the protests.

It's ridiculous; at the height of the unrest reserve officer salaries doubled and everyone was getting huge bonuses all the time (an average of 2,400 pounds – £254 – for me in January and February). Most full-time officers didn't really care what was happening politically on the streets, they were just happy with the extra money. Occasionally though you'd hear guilty jokes about how we were the only people who were benefiting from the revolution and the Egyptian people had been screwed over ...

That was especially obvious during the Maspero events [a protest by Coptic Christians and their supporters on 9 October which was attacked by the armed forces, leaving 27 dead]. The media, army and interior ministry have always worked hand in hand for their personal goals, and in this instance they worked to escalate the fitna [an Arabic word denoting chaos and division] between Muslims and Christians, and there was a great deal of ignorance and confusion within the ranks. The Christian minority are seen by many – inside the army and outside – as less important, so they were an easy target. You have to bear in mind that for the most part, officers only watch mainstream Egyptian television and so they never see the YouTube videos showing the darker side of Scaf. They're in denial.

But as the months went on, despite this ignorance and the generous bonus system, dissent against [Egypt's commander-in-chief and current head of Scaf, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein] Tantawi has grown. Most of the mid-level officers now think of him as Mubarak's right-hand man, and they hate the fact that Scaf's violence has tarnished the army's image in the eyes of the public. Many still disapprove of the current protests because they feel it's not the right time, and also because they're resentful that others can go and demonstrate on the streets when they themselves do not have such freedom. But that attitude is beginning to change, especially as independent TV channels have been airing video clips of the recent violence and the brutality of the security forces is being openly discussed by people like [prominent media personalities] Yosri Fouda and Ibrahim Eissa. More and more mid-level officers are turning against Scaf, and against Tantawi."

[Dayuhan]

I'm no expert on Egypt, but this looks to me like bad news:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...&type=politics

Egypt court dissolves Islamist-led parliament

Judges appointed by Hosni Mubarak dissolved the Islamist-dominated parliament Thursday and ruled his former prime minister eligible for the presidential runoff election this weekend — setting the stage for the military and remnants of the old regime to stay in power.

The politically charged rulings dealt a heavy blow to the fundamentalist Islamic Brotherhood, with one senior member calling the decisions a "full-fledged coup," and the group vowed to rally the public against Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister to serve under Mubarak.

[davidbfpo]

As SWC readers will know we have watched and commented upon the twists and turns of Pakistani decision-making for a long time; not once has Pakistan been likened to Egypt.

Shashank Joshi, from RUSI, has done this op-ed piece, which opens with:

The revolution has been cancelled. Everyone go home. It was all a big misunderstanding.

That is the message of Egypt’s military junta who, having hijacked their country’s political future, are turning it into a new Pakistan: a self-destructive and stagnating military dictatorship, limping along in sporadic democratic spurts. It is a squalid and tragic outcome for a country that should have been leading a political renaissance of the Arab world.

He ends with:

There is a warning here for outsiders, too. The United States bears some responsibility for feeding the military monster in Pakistan, over the years in which it preferred to funnel cash and weapons to the army in return for short-term co-operation.

Today, Washington should make a different choice in Egypt. It should tell the generals that the billions of dollars of American aid they receive every year, and the cutting-edge tanks and jets, will be conditional on a swift, meaningful and irreversible handover to elected civilians. That won’t fix everything, but it might buy time for a political process to take hold. The junta will respond by threatening to tear up the peace treaty with Israel, but this bluff has grown old. It should be ignored.

Ultimately, it is for Egyptians to decide whether they take to the streets once more, and risk further and perhaps futile bloodshed, or accommodate to military tutelage

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html

The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.

For a more detailed examination of the scene in Egypt try:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andrea-...ion-to-nowhere

I noted the point that the generals are the "old guard", anxious to retain their power and wealth. So much so they could actually unite the opposition around democracy, human rights and ejecting the generals - or more fitting "back to barracks".

[ganulv]

The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.

The prologue to an edition of This American Life from last spring is apropos.

[tequila]

The military appears to be betting that it can pull a Pakistan and essentially strip all meaningful power away from the presidency and the legislature.

In return, the Brotherhood has returned to Tahrir. One wonders if the people will be behind them, and for how long. But then again, who would have bet on the people getting this far?

The Obama Administration appears to be willing to let SCAF gut what remains of Egypt's revolution. I suppose the experience of Pakistan hasn't taught them much - or perhaps they simply want to avoid a major Middle East crisis ahead of elections? I don't think events are going to wait for them, though.

[Dayuhan]

The hopes of an 'Arab Spring' leading to a better future for the people living there have dulled, in other places are being extinguished and largely for reasons of state have the West has looked away.

The initial "Arab Spring" was never going to be more than the first act of a long-running drama. It may yet have kicked off movement toward a better future, but it's going to take some time and some mess to get there. It was never likely that there was going to be a direct transition from dictatorship to the elusive better future.

The West may well be looking away, but I'm not convinced that's a bad thing. Not much the West can or should do to influence the events playing out; it's something Egyptians need to work out for themselves.

Trying to force the Brothers out of power is IMO a bad idea, safer to have Islamists or Communists in Parliament than out on the streets, but MO means exactly nothing...

[tequila]

The West may well be looking away, but I'm not convinced that's a bad thing. Not much the West can or should do to influence the events playing out; it's something Egyptians need to work out for themselves.

The West (well, the US) is not going to be able to avert its eyes and be seen as neutral - not when we subsidize the Egyptian military to the tune of $2 billion per year.

The fate of that $2 billion should be in question now, IMO.

[Dayuhan]

The fate of that $2 billion should be in question now, IMO.

Completely agree, but don't think for a minute that the generals will hand over power just because we move our money elsewhere, even if we do. First they'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism. If that doesn't work, they'll make their money elsewhere. Not that hard to do when you're running a country.

The US pays Egypt to not fight Israel, not to move toward democracy. We may choose to renegotiate that deal, but the other party has choices too.