All of them wrong, I'd have to say. No reason to think a new regime in Egypt would have any interest in going to war with Israel; they'll have a whole lot to do on the home front... and in any event it's Israel who should be looking after Israel's interests, not us. I don't at all see how political change is bad for business... in an ossified situation like this removing the dead wood is likely to be good for business in the long run.Originally Posted by Bob's World
The Islamists stand to lose more than anyone, I think. They didn't initiate this, and they aren't driving it. It reminds me in that sense of the Philippines, where a Communist movement that had opposed a dictator for decades failed to anticipate or exploit the events that eventually removed him, and were left behind in the process. I suspect that the Islamists may end up missing Mubarak more than we do, just as the Communists in the Philippines found themselves largely irrelevant without Marcos.
That would depend on what "support the people" means. I certainly don't think we should support Mubarak. There may be a point where we can have some impact by withdrawing support, but that impact will be purely psychological: he doesn't rely on our support to that great an extent. We could offer asylum if he stands down, and threaten to withdraw that offer if he holds on, but that's largely a moot point; I doubt he'd be looking at asylum in the US anyway. We're not going to get directly involved (inshallah) and there's a limit to what statements can do.
Overreacting on any side would be an error, IMO. In large part we'll be watching, waiting, and working with whatever emerges. Trying to control or direct what emerges would, I suspect, backfire badly.
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