Catch All OEF Philippines (till 2012)

[Bob's World]

Fair comments, and I recognize yours are made with a greater knowledge of the Philippines from your time living there, and mine made with a greater knowledge of the nature of populace-based conflict.

The reality is of course, is that "it's complicated."

The US, realizing that as a maritime nation with an economy rooted in trade needed the proper "infrastructure" to sustain a naval presence along key trade routes, looked at a map of the Pacific and placed pins in the three largest harbors across that broad ocean: Pearl in Hawaii; Apra in Guam; and Manila in the Philippines. Our interests in the region have driven our engagement in the Philippines for about 110 years now; and while that has paid many benefits for them, it has come with baggage as well.

Today US interests still drive our engagement in the Philippines. Our concerns with terrorism, far more than any altruistic desire to help the Moro people, drives our presence and the nature of our engagement in the South. Our concerns with China, far more than any altruistic desire to help the Philippine people as a whole, drives our presence and the nature of our engagement with the government in Manila; and also shapes the nature of our engagement in the South. The surface tells one story, beneath that surface are many others.

For the Philippine people this is equally true in terms of their own engagement, actions and inactions. It's complicated.

But I do hold to my position that any true solution in the south, both to the things that concern the US and drive our presence there, and the things that are of greatest concern to people of that region, lie in the north. We must get straight with the central government before we can get straight with the problem in the south. (Same, by the way is true in Afghanistan, Pakistan and many other places).

The problem is that "getting straight" with each other is not a thing that governments and politicians are particularly keen to do. I'm not one, so I don't pretend to understand their rationale. Far easier to focus on some secondary or tertiary manifestation of poor governance, and send the military in to "resolve" the problem there instead.

I welcome your insights to this forum. The Pacific / Asia area is a critical one for the world and the US; and our focus, as the focus of SWJ, has been elsewhere of late.

[Dayuhan]

The reality is of course, is that "it's complicated."

On this we agree.

We must get straight with the central government before we can get straight with the problem in the south. (Same, by the way is true in Afghanistan, Pakistan and many other places).

The problem is that "getting straight" with each other is not a thing that governments and politicians are particularly keen to do. I'm not one, so I don't pretend to understand their rationale. Far easier to focus on some secondary or tertiary manifestation of poor governance, and send the military in to "resolve" the problem there instead.

I suspect that the problem is not entirely a need for the US and Philippine Governments to get straight with each other. What is needed is for the Philippine Government, and the Philippine governing class, to get straight with their own people, and to confront the reality that the traditional prerogatives and privileges of the Philippine governing class (primarily effective exemption from the law) are fundamentally incompatible with effective governance. US objectives in the Philippines will not be achieved until this happens, and there is very little the US can do to make it happen. This has caused a lot of frustration and will cause a lot more.

Military victory - or at least a level of dominance that could pass for victory - has been achieved in Mindanao on a number of occasions. Without effective governance, the conflict simply re-emerges, often in more radical form. Effective governance cannot be achieved while those who govern are above the law and are free to use that privilege to advance their personal interests.

Realistically, even with effective governance the Mindanao conflict would be very difficult to resolve. Without it.... close to impossible.