Catch All OEF Philippines (till 2012)

[Dayuhan]

Certainly counterproductive from the standpoint of the central Government: the individuals being killed are not significant players, and pose no real threat. The Government loses far more in the public relations battle that it gains in the fight against insurgency from these incidents.

It's important to remember, though, that political violence in the Philippines is overwhelmingly local and very frequently personal. We often hear about the numbers killed during elections and campaigns, what we hear less often is that it is not national campaigns that spur violence, but contests over local offices. This is where the old family feuds and personal vendettas come into play.

In many of these cases there are direct personal conflicts involved: "militants", generally on the left, often come into direct conflict with local leaders and military commanders. Many of these people are thin-skinned and do not take well to accusations and perceived insults. They are also effectively above the law.

The NPA also survives in most areas through "revolutionary taxes", which essentially amount to extortion. This process often runs up against local economic interests, which generally overlap closely with political power. In some cases local political and military figures are running very similar protection rackets, and when the rackets rub up against each other violence often ensuers. One response is violence directed at those known to be NPA allies, who are often easier targets than their comrades in the mountains.

It is also completely true that many of these "militant" groups are closely allied with the NPA and that in many cases their memberships overlap. This is, as stated above, a reason for the general lack of public concern. A common "man on the street" reaction would be "kasama 'yan sa laro"... literally, "that's part of the game", though a more accurate equivalent might be the old aphorism "if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen".

I very much doubt that the killings are directed by the central Government, but the Government does not have the will or the capacity to stop them.

[Dayuhan]

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakin...ew-armed-group

Ex-MILF leader forms new armed group

COTABATO CITY, Philippines—A senior Moro rebel commander blamed for the attacks that left 60 civilians dead in several central Mindanao towns in 2008 has admitted forming a new armed group.

Ameril Ombra Kato also blamed members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s (MILF) central committee for his decision to split from the MILF and form the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF)...

This has actually been coming on for a while. Umbra Kato's 105th base command and a couple of the Lanao base commands have been effectively outside MILF control for some time, though this is as far as I know the first time one of them has declared itself as an independent organization.

A number of things could happen...

There's a fair possibility it will go nowhere, and that Umbra Kato can be brought back into the fold with a greater role in the MILF Central Committee and a few other concessions. Personal issues are, as always, very much a factor.

There could be a bifurcation in the MILF, with more radical members that are less amenable to negotiation coalescing behind Umbra Kato and the demand that the "peace agreement" trashed by the Philippine Supreme Court be reinstated, which of course the government cannot do.

There could be a general splintering, with local commanders who are already largely autonomous formally going their own way.

The government response will also be interesting to watch. There will be pressure from Mindanao's Christian politicians and some quarters of the military to declare Umbra Kato (who was heavily involved in the outbreak of violence after the Supreme Court decision) outside the ceasefire with the MILF and come down on him hard before he draws any more support. There will also be calls to wait and see: if he fails to draw support it would do more to affirm the leadership of the negotiation-minded Murad faction (also called the Central Committee, though it seems less and less central), which would be placed in a very awkward spot if the AFP mounts a major attack on Umbra Kato. Umbra Kato is also well up in years, and won't be around forever. I don't know enough about his second tier at this point to speculate on succession.

This all traces back to the proposed MOA/AD and it's rejection by the Supreme Court, which hugely weakened Murad's pro-negotiation faction and left much of the Muslim populace doubting that there's any real point in negotiation. Less reported, but equally a concern, the Government's initial support for the agreement was seen as absolute betrayal by the Christian population, whose already weak trust in Manila took a further hit. There are reports of independent militias quietly reorganizing, and it should be remembered that the war in the early 70s began not with secessionists fighting the government, but with fighting between Christian and Muslim militias (though in truth they spent more time attacking each others unarmed supporters than attacking each other).

Proponents of "disaggregation" might see this as a step forward; I have doubts. It's difficult to negotiate with a fractured organization, and having a mass of independent commanders, all needing to feed and pay their soldiers, seems a recipe for all kinds of trouble.

It seems to me overall that in both the Maguindanao/Maranao mainland and the Tausug/Yakan islands there's less coherent leadership than there has been for some time (much more so in the islands of course). That shouldn't be confused with progress. Dislike and distrust of both Manila governance has been if anything increased in much of the area, and tension between indigenous Muslims and Christian settlers is as strong as ever. The number of armed men is as large as ever. Makes one wonder what emerges next.

Of course it all may come to nothing, and they may shake hands and get back together tomorrow....

[jmm99]

in Beyond the Abu Sayyaf, by Steven Rogers (January/February 2004 Foreign Affairs).

Perhaps a trustworthy bundoks source.



Mike

[Dayuhan]

in Beyond the Abu Sayyaf, by Steven Rogers (January/February 2004 Foreign Affairs).

Perhaps a trustworthy bundoks source.



Mike

If I was going to write that again I'd change a few things. Not all that much, but some... clarity with hindsight, I guess. Of course that dealt more with the islands to the west... a quite different situation from Central Mindanao, though with similarities.

There is actually a window of opportunity at this point (driven by both the MILF's uncertain control and the overreach and subsequent divorce from government of the Ampatuan dynasty) for the Philippine Government to step in with a strategy that is both within its legal capacity and capable of real progress toward reducing, if not fully resolving, the tension in Central Mindanao, and for that matter in the islands. Might almost be worth another article... but nobody would read it, the strategy would never be adopted in any event, it would be a hell of a lot of work, and I wouldn't get paid for it, all of which induce a certain lethargy.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Umbra Kato's boys are allegedly up to some nasty work...

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...CategoryId=200

COTABATO CITY, Philippines (Xinhua) - Suspected followers of a former Muslim rebel field commander blamed for the attacks that left 60 civilians dead in several southern Philippine towns in 2008 torched houses as they raided a Christian community in the southern Philippines yesterday, military said today.

Seven houses of civilians in a remote village in the township of Mlang in North Cotabato province were set on fire by suspected followers of Ameril Umbra Kato during the raid, the military said, adding the rebels also took away farm crops and animals as they fled.

Emphasis on "allegedly" and "suspected" here... Umbra Kato and Co. are certainly capable of this sort of thing and may very well be responsible, but others are equally capable, and there are a number of groups who would have an interest in provoking military action against the breakaway faction. Never wise to assume that things are as they seem, or as they are reported.

[Dayuhan]

There's a major corruption scandal unfolding in Manila. Started with investigation of a retired general who served as military comptroller and who had allegedly accumulated a personal fortune of roughly 300 million pesos; a plea bargain was hit and the usual sweep-under-the-rug was in progress, but a bunch of witnesses have emerged from the closet, including retired officers and a retired auditor, and the beans are spilling faster than anyone can count. Allegations include massive diversions of troop pay, the modernization budget, UN funds paying for peacekeepers, US exercise budgets, and almost everything else imaginable. Numerous instances of huge purchases from unknown suppliers, multiple accounts being billed for the same expenses. Large payments to legislators are being openly discussed. Lots of names on the table. Various hearings going on and a great deal of amnesia being expressed on the witness stand.

It all escalated today, former defense Secretary and General Angelo Reyes apparently committed suicide. Doubts are being expressed. He knew a lot of stuff about a lot of people, to put it mildly, and was coming under intense pressure.

There's undoubtedly a great deal to reveal, and it runs from top to bottom: these guys don't have skeletons in their closets, they have cemeteries. Hard to know how far it will go or what will come of it, but well worth watching. Long term it's undoubtedly a good thing; short term there could be significant operational disruption.

[Dayuhan]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...s9H_story.html

MANILA, Philippines — More than a dozen armed men abducted three people before dawn Tuesday, including a 50-year-old naturalized American woman and her 14-year-old son, from a southern Philippine island near a stronghold of al-Qaeda-linked militants, officials said.

Suspicion fell on the notorious terrorist group Abu Sayyaf, which has been blamed for ransom kidnappings, beheadings and bombings in the last two decades, or a Muslim rebel commander whose group has been linked to previous abductions.

Apparently the woman is Filipina, from Basilan, and owned the resort, presumably through relatives.

The Abu Sayyaf will certainly be blamed, and ASG or one of its splinters may actually be responsible. There are other possible culprits as well, both organized groups and simple armed gangs that snatch people and "sell" them on to larger groups who are more capable of negotiating ransom, for a share of the profits. Silly place to be for an American, really, even one with Basilan roots.

Too early to tell yet how it will play out, and what role US capabilities in the area will have in the response.

[Rachamim]

She is a Sama from Sacol Island, Gerpa Usman, who was adopted by American missionaries at age 9 and brought to the US. There they changed her first name to render it phonetically correct, Gerfa, and with her new last name, Gerfa Yeatts. In America she met a half Japanese half Norwegian man, Hiko Lunsmann, whom she worked with at the healthcare corporation Health Central in Lynchburg, Virginia. Togetjer they bough a tract home in Campbell County, continued working together and had a son, Kevin Eric Lunsmann, now 14.

After having a baby she felt as if a part of her was missing, never having kept in touch with her family in Mindanao. It was shortly after the birth of her son that she took the first of what would become six trips to re-connect with her family. Finding her Sama family living a common life, but by her American-bred standards unbelievably poor, sh did the wrong thing, she began throwing money at them. In fact, the island where the kidnapping took place? 8 km off of Zamboanga City proper? She had had three inter-connecting compounds built. One was simply for her to use on visits every two or three years. The other was for her mother and siblings. Still, like many Filipino-Muslims she had a fair number of half siblings and this is where the problem lies.

One sister, Alma Jakaria of Malmawi Island off of Isabela City on Basilan had asked her for cash after Gerfa's arrival at the end of June. Gerfa only gave a relatively small amount. One day before the kidnapping Ms.Jakaria arrived with a 19 year old sold. Though it isn't being released at this point the young man is ASG, and led his pals to the island in question. After the kidnapping the Lunsmanns were sighted entering Tuburan (Basilan, not Cen.Min.) from al Barka. They are currently with the same ASG sub-faction that took them but if there is no hand over in the next few days they will be sold to Jamiri who has taken a loss on his last 4 KFRs.

Anyway, another day in paradise. My issue though is the last American KFR in Misamis Oriental 2 months ag being overlooked but more so, we have Pinoy (and others, currently 1 Japanese, 1 Malaysian, 1 Indian from UAE) being grabbed every other day. This woman gets got and the PNP Dirrector General hops on a plane within two hours. Maybe if they took all KFRs this seriously we would have far fewer...well maybe.

[Dayuhan]

One sister, Alma Jakaria of Malmawi Island off of Isabela City on Basilan had asked her for cash after Gerfa's arrival at the end of June. Gerfa only gave a relatively small amount. One day before the kidnapping Ms.Jakaria arrived with a 19 year old sold. Though it isn't being released at this point the young man is ASG, and led his pals to the island in question. After the kidnapping the Lunsmanns were sighted entering Tuburan (Basilan, not Cen.Min.) from al Barka. They are currently with the same ASG sub-faction that took them but if there is no hand over in the next few days they will be sold to Jamiri who has taken a loss on his last 4 KFRs.

I doubt they would have needed to be led to the island; the location would have been common knowledge... but the inside guy is quite likely. As for the rest of it; yes, that's the way it typically works, on both sides. Americans often believe that the rash of people ratting out ASG members was a consequence of development projects winning over the people, more often than not it came down to internal fights over distribution of ransom. People who get less than they think themselves entitled to have a way of taking action...

Anyway, another day in paradise. My issue though is the last American KFR in Misamis Oriental 2 months ag being overlooked but more so, we have Pinoy (and others, currently 1 Japanese, 1 Malaysian, 1 Indian from UAE) being grabbed every other day. This woman gets got and the PNP Dirrector General hops on a plane within two hours. Maybe if they took all KFRs this seriously we would have far fewer...well maybe.

Maybe to keep the local subordinates from trying to get in on ransom payments? Not that they're likely to get much of that from Americans. We shall see. In any event, business as usual, emphasis on business. Interesting to see what, if anything, the US does...

[Rachamim]

The ransom is a no-brainer. Her husband has a Consultant negotiating so now its a question of price. On being led, the island is one of literally 120 off of Zam City, even city officials use guides. Sama live in mangroves, on boats (not just Badjao), etc.

[Dayuhan]

This one sounds pretty grim:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...88cbedf91d4b5c

7 Filipino troops die, 21 wounded in rebel clash

By JIM GOMEZ, Associated Press – 1 day ago

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Abu Sayyaf militants killed seven Philippine marines and wounded 21 others who were about to raid their jungle camp Thursday in some of the fiercest fighting this year between the military and the al-Qaida-linked rebels.

About 30 marines maneuvered in stormy weather close to the encampment of more than 50 militants in mountainous Patikul township in southern Sulu province, setting off the gunbattle before dawn, regional military spokesman Lt. Col. Randolph Cabangbang said.

It was not immediately clear if there were casualties among the militants, who were led by Radulan Sahiron, a one-armed commander long wanted by U.S. and Philippine authorities for a string of bombings and kidnappings, Cabangbang said.

The Government is trying to spin it as a "strategic victory", but 7 dead and 21 wounded out of a unit of 30 sounds like the kind of "victory" you wouldn't want much of.

Subsequent coverage; apparently beheading and mutilaation are still very much part of the ASG repertoire:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/33101/5...yaf-aquino-mad

And another angle:

Villagers 'set up' soldiers vs Abu Sayyaf?

MANILA, Philippines – Members of the Marine Battalion Landing Team-11 were not expecting to face 70 heavily armed terrorists when they headed to the base of Abu Sayyaf commanders Radulan Sahiron and Isnilon Hapilon in Barangay Panglahayan, Patikul, Sulu on July 28, authorities said.

One military official, who declined to be named, said the soldiers were "set up."

He added that several residents came to the aid of the Abu Sayyaf.

Reports are not entirely clear and some are inconsistent. Later reports refer to 7 dead and 26 wounded, though the Marine unit apparently numbered only 30. Possibly other Marine units arrived on the scene. Also very possible that some or all of the reports are not accurate... that's quite common with incidents in that area.

Not at all clear what actually happened, but it doesn't sound like anything good.

[Bill Moore]

The Philippine press isn't always accurate, but I suspect there is some truth to this, and if it happened as described then the locals in the area were very likely pro Abu Sayyaf and anti-government/military. This once again calls into question the efficacy of our approach to countering insurgencies through development efforts, since we have spent tens of thousands of dollars in that area on civil affairs activities, etc., and of course conducted MISO for years, and yet the ASG still maintains considerable support from the populace. This ties into another discussion we had on the blog about the importance of honesty when addressing problems, and not creating false perceptions of success by cherry picking happy stories to present to the public. There are deep structural problems within the Phlippine Goverment and its military, and U.S. assistance is only effective at the superficial level (tactically, and then only when the military is willing to listen and apply the lessons). Building a school, building a road, building a clinic are all humanitarian acts that have obvious humanitarian value, but they do not represent real change in the relationship between the populace and the government. The Filipinos need to honestly seek out why the populace supports the ASG and develop a more effective approach than the standard fare of random COIN tactics that have been applied again and again year after year with the same effect.

[Dayuhan]

Meant to include a link for the last story referenced:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...-vs-abu-sayyaf

US development projects have generated some real goodwill... toward the US. This has not really extended to the Philippine Government, and there's no reason why it should. The local folks know where the largesse is coming from, and it only serves to underscore the decades of neglect they've had from Manila. They can also see for themselves that the local plutocrats are still very much in charge.

I don't really see the MISO side as having any meaningful impact on local sentiments. People generally know who their enemies are, even if they're told differently. People also have long memories, and there's a long history of human rights abuse in that area. It's going to take a fair bit more than what's been done to convince the Muslim villagers of inner Basilan that the Philippine military and government are no longer their enemies, and it's not something the US can do, even with all the miso in Japan, or wherever it comes from.

I recall a comment here (or in an article referenced here) from a US military officer, to the effect that we need information ops so the people will know how cruel the Abu Sayyaf are. That's just appallingly naive: they already know exactly how cruel the Abu Sayyaf are. The average Basilan villager knows more about the Abu Sayyaf than the CIA. They also know what we apparently do not: the Philippine military also has a long record of cruelty, and that cruelty has been directed at them.

I certainly don't know what specific grievances the villagers in this case had that led them to act as they are said to have acted, but I'd be willing to bet that it's local, likely personal, and has nothing to do with support a global jihad agenda or the very nominal Islamist agenda of the ASG.

The Filipinos need to honestly seek out why the populace supports the ASG and develop a more effective approach than the standard fare of random COIN tactics that have been applied again and again year after year with the same effect.

First they'd have to ask whether the people support the ASG or whether they simply oppose the government, and support anyone who fights against it.

Ultimately they will come up against the need for fundamental changes in governance, and against the desperate need to bring the government's own functionaries in the military, police, and local government within the rule of law. In Basilan and Central Mindanao they will also come up against the need to mediate long-festering fights between entrenched settler populations and indigenous populaces, which is going to be very close to impossible. Typically these issues are not addressed, because nobody in power wants to touch them. Again, there is very little the US can do to address this. It's not our fight.

[Bill Moore]

Typically these issues are not addressed, because nobody in power wants to touch them. Again, there is very little the US can do to address this. It's not our fight.

You're correct in my opinion, we have little leverage to push the Gov of the Philippines to change at the local and national level, and the locals in the Muslim south very well know that the acts of kindness they benefit from are "mostly" driven by the U.S., and if we weren't there it is unlikely that the military would reach out to the locals.

This isn't our fight, and much like other efforts we get involved in we find it difficult to extract ourselves from these activities. Our military involvement in the Philippines is small relative to Iraq and Afghanistan, and perhaps affordable, so the real question then is should it be sustained?

With the current President of the Philippines I think it is worth having a little more patience to see if he can push his promised reforms through, but to date he has not yet demonstrated that he has the leadership ability of Magsaysay, and doesn't yet appear capable of pushing his reform agenda through to completion. However, he does seem to have a good vision, one that we should support in my view. Of course it is the Philippines, and it may turn out he is as corrupt as everyone else.

[AdamG]

How do you say "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" in Ancient Greek?

MANILA, Philippines - Women ended armed clashes in 2 Mindanao villages by not having sex with their husbands unless the men laid down their weapons, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

The success of the "sex strike" allowed families to start rebuilding their communities, the UN's refugee agency said.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/re...villages-unchr

[Van]

Well, in modern Greek; "το πιο πράγματα αλλάζουν. τα περισσότερα πράγματα μένουν τα ίδια".

[Dayuhan]

This is as good a description as any of the latest round in the sporadically recurring effort toward a negotiated peace in Mindanao

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...20Mindanao.pdf

I'm not at all optimistic. Possibly a few lessons have been learned from the complete fiasco that resulted the last time out - the doomed-from-the-start MOA/AD that I once nominated for a "Peace Process Least Likely to Produce Peace" award, but still few grounds for optimism.

All discussion of Mindanao peace negotiations, past or current, is welcome!

[SWJED]

I received the following via e-mail from the Philippines:

From the MILF Secretariat Web site: MILF concern over CMO.

Civil-military operations more lethal, MILF says
Date: Monday, April 09 @ Malay Peninsula Standard Time
Topic: News
April 9, 2007

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has described the latest approach to the insurgency problem in Mindanao by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), which is civil-military operations, as more lethal than brute force. Khaled Musa, deputy chairman of the MILF Committee on Information, told Luwaran that this approach has a chilling effect on Moros fighting the government who are less in ideological armor, saying this was tested during the early years of the MNLF when practically everybody surrendered to the government, if the basis of counting is government statistics.

He said it was mainly due to the policy of attraction pursued by the Americans that worked effectively against Moros who were up in arms.

But he clarified that using this approach to hard core ideologues of revolutionary struggles would only scratch the surface of things.

"Dedicated and rightly guided revolutionaries," he said, "do not expect material rewards for sacrificing everything dear to them."

AFP chief General Hermogenes Esperon Jr. said the military would abandon Oplan Ultimatum and focus on civil-military operations against the Abu Sayyaf in Mindanao.

"We are shifting to civil-military operations," Esperon said during an interview over ANC cable news television.

More than 5,000 troops under Oplan Ultimatum have been pursuing the Abu Sayyaf since last year and it had its successes following the killing of its chieftain, Khadaffy Janjalani, and his deputy, Abu Solaiman, late last year.

Esperon said the change in strategy was meant to address the problem of innocent civilians displaced by the encounters between government troops and the Abu Sayyaf.

"There have been a lot of people who have been displaced and so we want to go into their areas and tell them that we... did not intentionally displace them. This was all part of the security operations that would benefit them anyway," he said.

[Jedburgh]

HRW, Jul 07: Lives Destroyed: Attacks on Civilians in the Philippines

....In all, bombings against civilians in the Philippines have caused over 1,700 casualties in the last seven years, more than the number of people killed and injured in bombing attacks during the same period in neighboring Indonesia (including the 2002 Bali bombings), and considerably more than the number of those killed and injured in bombings in Morocco, Spain, Turkey, or Britain. Moreover, in addition to bombings, extremist groups in the Philippines have carried out numerous kidnappings and targeted killings, including beheadings, and have extorted large amounts of money from Philippine civilians in ransom and extortion payments.

Members of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM), based in the southern Philippines, have claimed responsibility for many of these crimes. ASG is a radical Islamist group whose members broke away in the 1990s from more established ethnic Moro insurgent groups (“Moro” is a Philippine term for Muslim). RSM, a group composed of converts to Islam, is closely tied to ASG. The two groups purportedly aim to push Christians out from Mindanao and the Sulu islands and “restore” Islamic rule over the Philippines.

Both ASG and RSM maintain links with current or former members of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the violent Indonesian Islamist group responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings. Philippine government officials also claim that elements of the longstanding Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) have, over the last few years, provided sanctuary or assistance for ASG, RSM, and JI members.....

Full 32 page report at the link.

[SWJED]

Flashpoint: No Bungle in the Jungle - Peter Brookes, Armed Forces Journal

Whether you agree with it or not, it's likely there will be some changes to the current size and shape of U.S. forces in Iraq over the next year. For reasons from the political to the practical, the current troop surge in Iraq isn't going to last forever.

So, as the politicians and policymakers search for a future strategy in Iraq that would be amenable to the American people, Congress, the Pentagon and the White House, it makes sense to open the intellectual aperture pretty wide in the search for good ideas.

In some corners of defense intelligentsia, the U.S.-backed effort in the southern Philippines against the al-Qaida-affiliated Abu Sayyaf group ("Bearer of the Sword") is being touted as the most successful counterterrorism campaign of the post-Sept. 11 period. Indeed, some are promoting Operation Enduring Freedom-Philippines (OEF-P) as a model counterterrorism (CT) and counterinsurgency (COIN) operation. Although not everyone would agree with that characterization, it's worthwhile to take a look at OEF-P to see whether the strategy and policy might be applied to the ongoing challenges in Iraq — or elsewhere...

[pinoyme]

Hi:

Yup.

Many Filipinos are happy about this even if they do not take to the streets to march.

Nonetheless, maybe it would be nice also if US policymakers were to craft an indirect program to rid a number of AFP officers and enlisted personnel of their Bonapartist tendencies. This bad habit they picked up during the latter part of the Marcos dictatorship.

There is still the threat this progress shall not be sustainable. This if a number of AFP troopers shall think it is they who are the saviors of the Philippines.

It is about time all learned to respect civilian supremacy even if the Philippine government does have warts.

True, the country may have governance problems and this also includes the Philippine Army and the rest of the AFP.

A coup d'etat however is no solution.

Cheers and Mabuhay.