Raymond Davis

**omarali50** · 02-28-2011

Some of the comments here (and elsewhere) get recycled in my article about this business: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-ali.html#more

**omarali50** · 03-03-2011

Pro-army websites are now blaming the assassination of minorities minister Shahbaz Bhatti on the CIA...supposedly as a ploy to "deflect attention from the Davis case". http://rupeenews.com/?p=36041
Again, these are NOT fringe websites. These are the most widely read websites in the Pakistani blogosphere (far more popular than liberal sites) and their propaganda efforts are well coordinated by some "invisible hand" .
But in the interest of fairness, I should add that I have occasionally heard from leftwing friends that these websites are not really ISI sponsored, they are CIA sponsored and reflect some extremely deep and subtle form of psyops. Make of that what you will.
The owner of this site does live in the US so one can see where the more conspiracy-minded can create a story that portrays this site as an American plot.

**carl** · 03-05-2011

Originally Posted by omarali50

Pro-army websites are now blaming the assassination of minorities minister Shahbaz Bhatti on the CIA...supposedly as a ploy to "deflect attention from the Davis case". http://rupeenews.com/?p=36041

That is one remarkable read. It describes an alternate world, sort of like dropping into Wonderland with Alice.

Articles like this, others you've linked to and the rantings of the trolls over at the blog are starting to worry me. It reminds me of the things promulgated by the Germans and Japanese in the years prior to WWII. Like you said, this might not end well.

**omarali50** · 03-05-2011

A friend from the PPP (who lives in Pakistan) recently commented that Pakistan feels like the Weimar Republic right now. Historical analogies are generally on shaky ground, and I wouldnt push the analogy too far, but there is something to it.
I think the Jihadist core in the army and the Islamist groups (especially the explicitly fascist Jamat e Islami) does have a vision that bears many analogies to Nazism (including the horrible likely ending to the story). Its NOT the most likely outcome because I think no one in Pakistan has enough control or will get enough control, the culture is deeply anarchic (in what I would consider a good way) and fragmented and many other factors work against this vision, but they DO have the vision in mind and they are pursuing it with great determination.
The Ahmed Qureshi types (who represent the viewpoint of those who think they are using the jihadis and not vice versa) see China as their model, not the Taliban. But because of their single-minded obsession with India, or because they think Uncle Chin wants them to finger India (never mind if he reallly does or does not, they think he does and they are really smitten with Uncle Chin right now) or because of some twisted notion of how nationalism supposedly works (rupee news editor has had remarkable postings about that....it seems that they believe that every nation needs a demonic enemy to unite the masses and so on; its some half-assed theory they picked up somewhere in America...NOTHING about them is original or indigenous, even the farcical elements are based on some superficial reading of Leo Strauss or some other farcical graft of A onto completely out-of-context B), they dream of the day when the glorious armed forces will take over the country, restore law and order, one folk, one leader, one marching band and one uniform..the whole fascist shebang.
And they think the jihadis are their weapon in this grand scheme. I personally think they are being extremely foolish and THEY are being used by the Jihadis, but whatever. The point is, their is a small but non-trivial chance that once the US pays for a soft exit and leaves, they may carry out a coup and etablish law and order (probaby behead a few liberals in the stadium to put the fear of god into people).
They may then have a honeymoon for a brief period. Sort of "Springtime with Islamic Hitler". But the comparison ends there. Pakistan is not Germany, Pakistanis are not Germans (they are hardly even Pakistanis...the confused national identity is not a trivial issue). In this case, Marx was right: History repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.
but a farce with 200 nuclear weapons has the potential to get really ugly..

**carl** · 03-05-2011

Omar:

What I see in all three, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan and Pakistan as shepherded by GHQ, is too great a regard for their own power, especially moral, too little regard for opponents will and capacity to resist and a view of the world that blithely disregards reality.

I think we are saying the same thing in different ways.

**omarali50** · 03-05-2011

I dont know enough about the demons the imperial Japanese army used to mobilize their people (if they used any) but its interesting that the ISI-media cell has not been too original in their choice of scapegoat...the Jews get star billing. Though there are original and farcical twists at times. Zaid Hamid (see http://www.chapatimystery.com/archiv...aid_hamid.html) frequently refers to "Brahmin Zionists", which nicely wraps the Hindus and Jews into one mega-enemy....

**ganulv** · 03-08-2011

Davis came up during yesterday’s Fresh Air interview with Robert and Dayna Baer (at about the 5:20 mark).

**davidbfpo** · 03-09-2011

Catching up on reading and found this WaPo piece useful, on the relevant international law on diplomatic and other staff:http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fac..._in_pakis.html

**omarali50** · 03-10-2011

connected to this imbroglio:

A serving general has admitted that drone strikes kill militants. http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/as...acks/?hpt=Sbin

The "paknationalist" websites (said to represent "the invisibles") have targeted said General and are asking that he be court-martialled. http://www.pakistanpatriot.com/?p=34427

Does this mean that the strain of keeping both balls in the air is beginning to show? Will General Kiyani and Pasha have to lean one way or the other? stay tuned.
My guess is they will lean both ways by not saying anything. Which is a bit sad, because as the reception of this statement in the Pakistani blogosphere makes clear, the psy-ops impact of the army changing its tune and openly coming out against the "militants" can be HUGE. My guess though is that the army will not come out cleanly on one side...More of the same is the most likely next step. And he may even be fired, which would be a way of leaning the other way rather firmly...

**carl** · 03-11-2011

Omar:

Do you think he said this on his own or was he cleared to say it as sort of a trial ballon?

Also, I read the Pak Army is going to mount an additional operation this spring I think in North Waziristan. Could this have anything to do with that?

**davidbfpo** · 03-11-2011

A good analysis / comment on the wider context and ends with:

However, the ISI needs the CIA as much as the CIA needs the ISI. Pakistan is increasingly beset by militant groups and the state seems both insouciant about the nature of some of the threats to Pakistan and its citizenry and less than capable of dealing with those threats it has acknowledged and taken on.

Unless these two spy organizations can find a workable peace that acknowledges and begrudgingly accommodates the other's concerns, the security of both of our countries will be at risk. And if the recent past is any guide, Pakistanis will bear the brunt of the terrorist rampages.

Link:http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts..._raymond_davis

**omarali50** · 03-12-2011

I dont think "ISI" has one policy. Their Islamist cell definitely does NOT have any problems with failure to defeat certain terrorists that the state has decided to target. Their pro-China cell is OK with dragging things out. There seems to be no "pro-Pakistani-people" cell...you may be wrong in your assumption that they WANT things to get better in Pakistan in a "western" sense. Some of them really truly do think that a mess suits them just fine for now...

**omarali50** · 03-23-2011

A "from the horse's mouth" summing up from Brigadier Shaukat Qadir, and some discussion of the same: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/03/.../#comment-6280

**carl** · 03-24-2011

Omar:

The most interesting thing to me about all this has to do with the orchestrated media firestorm that you mentioned and the blood curdling street demonstrations after the arrest. After the release, nothing much seemed to happen. Which leads me to believe the General sahibs really can turn a lot of things on and off at will.

**omarali50** · 03-24-2011

. The establishment has a lot of control over the "above-ground" religious parties and groups and can indeed turn them on and off at will, but this game has its limits.
See the following article by Fasi Zaka. He uses a lot of Urdu terms in this article, but you will get the gist:http://tribune.com.pk/story/136238/f...arz-and-fasad/

**Ken White** · 10-02-2011

LINK.

Not enough info to tell...

**davidbfpo** · 04-09-2013

A thorough NYT article on the background to this incident, a three-way contest between the US Embassy (Islamabad), the CIA and a variety of Pakistani players. Nothing new on my reading, more a reminder of what happened.

The headline is rather OTT 'How a Single Spy Turned Pakistan Against the United States'.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/ma...nted=all&_r=3&