And Libya goes on...

[Rex Brynen]

My conclusion is that - regardless what the rebels say - the regime has to get hit in a most massive fashion possible, and be forced to give up.

..which, given Chinese and Russian opposition in the UNSC, and a general Western reluctance to get involved in another military adventure in the Middle East, isn't going to occur--unless Qaddafi does something particularly heinous (and it is reported on TV).

Given that, the question becomes what are the array of policy instruments short of a bombing campaign (and short of a no-fly zone) that members of the international community have available to them--and will they make much difference?

[Bob's World]

I argue the rebel's best bet is to avoid some grand decisive victory. George Washington damn near lost the revolution several time pitting rebel weakness against governmental strength. Mao, Giap, and many others have learned this lesson as well. It also gives the rebels less credibility in the international community and court of public opinion.

Better to strike where the government is absent or weak; to create an appearance of rebel gains in the media that may in fact be inconsequential on the ground. The average western observer doesn't know a Benghazi from a Tripoli anyways. "Spread the court" in basketball jargon and force the government to split its forces or hunker down in defense. Time is on the rebel's side. ID critical aspects of day to day life for the government and disrupt them, while avoiding to the degree possible bringing hardship onto the general populace

Meanwhile to merely wait and see who wins is the worst coa for the west. If Qaddafi wins, he will repay the lack of support in kind. If the rebels win without the west's help, they are all the more likely to lean toward AQ, MB and other Islamist UW groups who have been working this populace hard for years.

There is no need to launch an air campaign against Libyan government forces, but certainly we should be postured to make that a credible threat to lend support to messages encouraging the military to either remain neutral or switch sides. Mercenaries fight for pay, locking down as much of the government's money and messaging the same may have some effect there. Some degree of UW should also be on the table as an option, be it direct or indirect, physical or virtual, CIA or SF.

Maybe that super PSYOP guy from LTG Caldwell's staff can work some mindbender stuff up as well now that he is no longer employed brainwashing congressional delegates in Kabul...

[Rex Brynen]

Better to strike where the government is absent or weak; to create an appearance of rebel gains in the media that may in fact be inconsequential on the ground. The average western observer doesn't know a Benghazi from a Tripoli anyways. "Spread the court" in basketball jargon and force the government to split its forces or hunker down in defense. Time is on the rebel's side. ID critical aspects of day to day life for the government and disrupt them, while avoiding to the degree possible bringing hardship onto the general populace

In many ways, Libya doesn't have much of a "hinterland" -- 95% of the population lives along the coastal strip (parts of which itself are barely inhabited), and most of the country is desert where it is both difficult to sustain a rebel force and where no one much cares if they do. Three quarters of the population live in urban areas.

Inevitably, 90% of the fighting in this civil war is likely to occur within 10km of the coast.

It is important that places like Misurata don't completely fall--at the moment they both block government LoC and force Qaddafi to divide his forces.

[Bob's World]

Agreed. Darnah might be interesting to watch as well. Libya was the #2 source of foreign fighter to Iraq (behind Saudi Arabia) to support AQ; but by far had the highest % per capita, with most coming from Darnah.

[Rex Brynen]

Agreed. Darnah might be interesting to watch as well. Libya was the #2 source of foreign fighter to Iraq (behind Saudi Arabia) to support AQ; but by far had the highest % per capita, with most coming from Darnah.

The Battle of Darnah (1805) was also the first land battle fought on foreign soil by US forces after the Revolutionary War.