And Libya goes on...

[Graycap]

In my opinion the future course of actio must will be the direct consequence of a political and strategic definitive agreement (or lack of) of the regional actors involved.

The options could be three:

- a siege like Irak in 1991-2003.
- a Jawbreaker style operation
- a direct assault

I will begin by the last: if the western country are able to attract the regime in a direct offense to their assets (terrorism included) this option could become real. But it could be possible only with robust US involvment.

The "jawbreaker option", within the UN resolution or not, could be the only one possible for the Anglo-French alone. But the Libyans are not afghans.
They are not ready to sustain any kind of military operation even with SOF assistance. The risks could be very high. Anyway this course of action is the only one that could justify the French conduct of the diplomatic relations with their allies. A successful french UW campaign could become a real problem inside the EU. Given the Libyan "human terrain" anyone could be meddling and an Afghan style outcome is possible.

The siege has a lot of problems and , in the end, it will require one of the other two otions. But the siege could help in building a broad alliance and a more clear political landscape for the after-Gheddafi phase.

[Bob's World]

Hopefully the US keeps (or puts?) its eye on the big picture. For the US, Libya is not about Libya. Once we lose that perspective and get sucked into operations in Libya for Libya's sake we are screwed.

But once we give a problem to the military such "target fixation" and tactical focus becomes inevitable. The primary effects the US needs to shape from our operations in Libya are on the Arabian Peninsula. Those populaces and those governments currently teetering on the edge are the Main Effort effect of this operation.

The main effort belongs to CENTCOM. Who is running Libya operations? AFRICOM? Has AFRICOM been told that they are a main effort (over Iraq and Afghanistan) operation in Libya to produce main effort effects on the Arabian Peninsula??? I highly doubt it. I suspect that AFRICOM is currently all Gung ho to make the best of their opportunity to show what they can do, and are almost completely focused on Libya operations for Libyan effects, and possible glancing at neighbor states, and even less so at the Arabian Peninsula.

AFRICOM intel guys are rolling out grand PowerPoint briefs twice a day for their commander, primary focus on the disposition and status assessed of Qaddafi's forces, and secondary on the main "violent extremist organizations" in the region that they have been shaping and tracking these past few years. Is he getting equal or greater coverage of what effects he needs to be creating among the people and governments of the AP, and how his operations in Libya are assessed to be shaping those effects?? I highly doubt it.

Who coordinates this seam and ensures balance and perspective are maintained? The same people who coordinate the seam between Pakistan and India??? God help us.

But before we can keep our eye on the prize, we must first recognize what the prize is. The big prize is if we can help shape conditions in Libya so as to transition from violent revolution of government to non-violent evolution of government. This is what will communicate to the populaces and governments on the AP the critical message:

1. Continued oppression of populaces and suppression of revolution is no longer acceptable if one is to enjoy the support of the U.S.

2. Current leaders need not fear for their lives or US support of their overthrow; but only if they open doors to true evolution of governance in open talks with Representatives from across their national body of stake holders. Promises of amnesty for the worst, to continuation in power for the acceptable (as measured by their own people, not by any foreign body) must be clearly communicated and enforced.

3. Populaces need not either submit to oppression in fear, nor rise up in violent revolution as their two options. They must develop trust (in a no-trust environment) that they can come forward, engage in reasonable ways IAW their custom, to voice grievances and work toward solutions.


But if we get target locked, and slide into violent regime change of Libya, we need to be prepared to do the same thing in the UAE or Jordan, or Saudi Arabia. I don't think we are, as we know it is inappropriate there. News Flash: It is inappropriate in Libya as well.

This is either a tremendous opportunity to make these three North African revolts into the lever that finally allows us to move the GWOT forward; or it is the pit we fall into trapped by our old ways and make the GWOT worse. That is not something any GCC should hold in their hands, particularly if they don't even realize they are holding it.

[Surferbeetle]

And Libya goes on Post # 458

But if we get target locked, and slide into violent regime change of Libya, we need to be prepared to do the same thing in the UAE or Jordan, or Saudi Arabia. I don't think we are, as we know it is inappropriate there. News Flash: It is inappropriate in Libya as well.

vs.

And Libya goes on Post # 36

Meanwhile to merely wait and see who wins is the worst coa for the west. If Qaddafi wins, he will repay the lack of support in kind. If the rebels win without the west's help, they are all the more likely to lean toward AQ, MB and other Islamist UW groups who have been working this populace hard for years.

There is no need to launch an air campaign against Libyan government forces, but certainly we should be postured to make that a credible threat to lend support to messages encouraging the military to either remain neutral or switch sides. Mercenaries fight for pay, locking down as much of the government's money and messaging the same may have some effect there. Some degree of UW should also be on the table as an option, be it direct or indirect, physical or virtual, CIA or SF.

Maybe that super PSYOP guy from LTG Caldwell's staff can work some mindbender stuff up as well now that he is no longer employed brainwashing congressional delegates in Kabul...