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Thread: And Libya goes on...

  1. #921
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    What is consistent is the evidence that the Obama Administration does not have the vaguest idea of what's going on and how to proceed in Libya. What we are quite possibly witnessing is the most inept Administration in US history.
    They're not proceeding as you think they should. That doesn't mean they don't know whats going on and it doesn't mean they're inept, it just means their opinions on appropriate response are different from yours.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Spin the situation as much as you wish but what the world is witnessing is the horror of a US President Leading from behind
    I decline to be horrified, and I find your spin to be on the hyperventilated and over-horrified side... but if that's what pleases you, spin away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    They're not proceeding as you think they should. That doesn't mean they don't know whats going on and it doesn't mean they're inept, it just means their opinions on appropriate response are different from yours.
    Dithering, vacillation, hesitancy etc are hardly indicators of self assured policy implementation.

    You should read the article and also the one in the New Yorker - THE CONSEQUENTIALIST

    Then do try to read a little more widely. It might seem clever to present what I say here to be merely the personal opinion of an individual. You will be amazed how many people there are out there who do not share your interpretation of how Obama is playing the Libyan situation ... and so would not be buying your spin anytime soon.

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    Nato strike 'kills Gaddafi's youngest son'

    Libyan official says son and three of Libyan leader's grandsons killed in air strike, but NATO is yet to confirm deaths.

    Saif al-Arab Gaddafi, the youngest son of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, and three of his grandchildren have been killed in a NATO air strike
    The 29-year-old Saif al-Arab Gaddafi is the most unknown of the Libyan leader's children, Al Jazeera's Anita McNaught, reporting from Tunisia, said. He's one of the low-profile of his children and has been largely invisible since the conflict began", He hasn't been visible in any significant form. He hasn't appeared on TV or made any speeches, he hasn't been on any crowd-rallying marches.
    Al Jazeera's Sue Turton, reporting from Benghazi, said there were "an awful lot" of suggestions in Libya that the news of the deaths could be fabricated.

    NATO statement:
    NATO continued its precision strikes against Gaddafi regime military installations in Tripoli overnight, including striking a known command and control building in the Bab al-Azizya neighbourhood shortly after 1800 GMT Saturday evening. All NATO's targets are military in nature and have been clearly linked to the... regime's systematic attacks on the Libyan population and populated areas. We do not target individuals..
    http://english.aljazeera.net/news/af...755721620.html

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...73T2HV20110430

    http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/01/nato-...-official.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-01-2011 at 10:35 AM. Reason: Citations edited down and advisory PM to author

  4. #924
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Dithering, vacillation, hesitancy etc are hardly indicators of self assured policy implementation.
    Again, all of those are your own opinions.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    You should read the article and also the one in the New Yorker - THE CONSEQUENTIALIST

    Then do try to read a little more widely. It might seem clever to present what I say here to be merely the personal opinion of an individual. You will be amazed how many people there are out there who do not share your interpretation of how Obama is playing the Libyan situation ... and so would not be buying your spin anytime soon.
    I read widely and make up my own mind. Your opinion is only your opinion, as mine is only mine. There are plenty of people out there who do not share your interpretation of how Obama is playing the Libyan situation, and will not be buying your spin any time soon. Not all of them agree with how the situation is being handled, but their disagreements aren't necessarily yours. As always, there's a wide diversity of opinions out there, and none of them are necessarily right. To characterize those that differ from yours as incompetent dithering nutlessness or apologism for the same is to assign your own opinion an exalted status that no opinion deserves.

    Worth noting that SWJ is a place that attracts a specific audience that is better informed and more aware of these matters than most general audiences would be... how many here share your opinions?

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    It might seem clever to present what I say here to be merely the personal opinion of an individual. You will be amazed how many people there are out there who do not share your interpretation of how Obama is playing the Libyan situation ... and so would not be buying your spin anytime soon.
    I would not be surprised at all. Non-trivial numbers of people believe all kinds of things, and some of those things are fatuous nonsense. Others are merely differences of opinion while still others may agree, but prioritize differently. People disagree with President Obama on a lot of things - so what? Second-guessing Presidential decisions isn't exactly new.
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    I have never been a supporter of Wilf mentra: victory is measured by nb of ennemy killed but this is the basic reallity.
    I don't know which Wilf said this, but if it is attributed to me, then I would this is incorrect in absolute terms.... but....

    a.) The primary means of breaking enemy will is delivered via lethal force.
    b.) Success in battles and engagements is about breaking will to persist in combat.

    That puts a primacy on "killing effectively", and not just on killing anything and anyone. Generally speaking, if you are killing more of the enemy than they are killing of you, you are conducting highly effective military activity.... but this may not win you war! Why? Read Clausewitz. It's all in there.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Welcome back Wilf!
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Worth noting that SWJ is a place that attracts a specific audience that is better informed and more aware of these matters than most general audiences would be... how many here share your opinions?
    And I am supposed to give a rats ass about that?

    Some around here seem to be pretty informed and provide valuable information to those seeking it... then there are a fair percentage that are clearly way out in left field and have little idea of what they are talking about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    Hello South Africa,

    I do not believe that, usually, "quick, clean and easy (and low cost) options" exist in the military realm. I bolded "believe" because you obviously have a different belief - beliefs are not subject to argument.
    You need to analyse carefully what you are up against before believing that "quick, clean and easy (and low cost) options" exist.

    Grenada and Panama are probably pretty good examples from the US point of view as much as Vietnam should not have been. Vietnam was the place where the French got punished for a massive strategic error yet did the US (or anyone in the US) really think it would be a walk in the park.

    Lets look at Africa. Apart from Egypt and Algeria (through quantity rather than quality) the potential for "quick, clean and easy (and low cost) options" is there for all the rest. The exercise which would taken out the Presidency and effectively neuatralise the military would take between a few hours to a weekend. Thereafter they would be running around in the bush (a lot like the Taliban were in 2001). And all this could probably be done off the back of one carrier strike group with no boots on the ground other than to extract US embassy staff and nationals.

    Libya falls into that second group... would have been wrapped up in an afternoon, had there been the will.

  10. #930
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    And I am supposed to give a rats ass about that?
    You're the one that suggested that I should give a rat's ass about opinions published elsewhere... why would those opinions be more significant than those expressed here? Is the significance of an opinion proportional to the extent to which you share it?

    I realize that in your mind you have all the answers and anyone who doesn't share your opinions is useless, but you must realize tha's not a very effective starting point for a discussion.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Some around here seem to be pretty informed and provide valuable information to those seeking it... then there are a fair percentage that are clearly way out in left field and have little idea of what they are talking about.
    In other words, they disagree with your omniscience. So it goes. That doesn't mean they've little idea what they're talking about, it means they disagree with you.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Libya falls into that second group... would have been wrapped up in an afternoon, had there been the will.
    What would have been wrapped up? Removing MG?

    Must it be written in letters of fire across the computer screen? The problem isn't removing MG, the problem is making sure we don't get stuck with responsibility for doing it, and thus responsibility for the mess that comes after. Yes, if we wanted to remove MG we could have done it very quickly, just as we removed Saddam and the Taliban very quickly. Removing a bad government does not wrap things up. That's not where the problems end, it's where they start.

    Just because you can do something doesn't make it a smart thing to do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    You're the one that suggested that I should give a rat's ass about opinions published elsewhere... why would those opinions be more significant than those expressed here? Is the significance of an opinion proportional to the extent to which you share it?
    I said to take cognisance of. The opinions here are generally few and far between (I think mainly because many are serving or dependent on the DoD/military/whatever for their income that there is less chance of any lively debate).

    I realize that in your mind you have all the answers and anyone who doesn't share your opinions is useless, but you must realize tha's not a very effective starting point for a discussion.
    I have many opinions. Over time I tend to be proven more often correct than wrong. That's why I said lets wait and see.

    Exactly the same could be said about you. I suggest our exchanges have run their course.

    In other words, they disagree with your omniscience. So it goes. That doesn't mean they've little idea what they're talking about, it means they disagree with you.
    I read what someone writes and am free to agree or disagree and express it.

    If someone says the US/Brits/French/NATO were wrong to intervene in Libya I will say that IMO they are wrong.

    If someone tries to suggest that the intervention as carried out by the US (putting in a hit then handing over the baby to NATO) is an intelligent military plan which represents the best course of action I would go further than just disagree and suggest that they are quite probably insane.

    OK, so I will move on from this stuff with you now. I will ignore the personal non-topic specific stuff from now on and only engage with you if at all in response to substantive issues where you go beyond merely criticising to provide an alternative.
    Last edited by JMA; 05-01-2011 at 11:42 PM.

  12. #932
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    If someone tries to suggest that the intervention as carried out by the US (putting in a hit then handing over the baby to NATO) is an intelligent military plan which represents the best course of action I would go further than just disagree and suggest that they are quite probably insane.
    That would depend on the purpose of the action, would it not?

    if the purpose of the action was to remove MG or protect the Libyans, yes, the course of action taken would be considered ineffective.

    If the purpose of the action is to be seen contributing to a multilateral effort without taking leadership or being sucked into responsibility for the aftermath, the course of action taken makes a lot more sense. The effectiveness of a course of action is measured by the extent to which it achieves its goals. You can't measure that if you assume the wrong goals.

    It's easy to say that history proves your opinion right when you make assumptions about where the road not taken might have led, but any such assumption is by nature highly speculative. Just because what was done didn't work out doesn't mean that the course you advocated would have worked any better.

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    Default Hello? anyone remember a place called Misrata?

    How rebels held Misrata



    Just thought I would put my hand up for the people of Misrata, which I believe the last journalist abandoned today, and wonder aloud whether it is indeed possible for a NATO force (sans the US) to be so utterly incompetent in protecting the civilians as they were authorised through a UNSC resolution which they specifically sought.
    Last edited by JMA; 05-04-2011 at 03:54 PM.

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    JMA that was a completely fascinating article. SWJ evolved from the Urban Operations Journal I think and this article is the partial story of one hell of an urban operation. I hope we get the full story some day.

    The dictator's forces seem to have nothing much besides heavy weapons and some organization. The rebels have human material and heart. The dictator's forces keep getting chipped away at by NATO and small defeats. The rebels are learning on the job and maybe through training in the east that we don't hear much about. An interesting situation.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    This struck me as a significant comment...

    Unlike fighters in eastern Libya, who retreat across stretches of desert when attacked, Misrata's rebels can't run; their backs are to the Mediterranean Sea.
    Maybe the rebels in the east need to learn something from their compatriots in Misrata. Instead of retreating across the desert when attacked (according to many accounts, retreating at the first sign of attack) and complaining that NATO isn't winning their war for them, they might accomplish more, and learn more, if they emulated Misrata and fought.

    Ultimately the Libyan rebellion has to be fought and won by the Libyan rebels, not by NATO. NATO can help the rebels, but it can't and shouldn't do the jo for them. It's not NATO's responsibility to settle the fight, and anyone who expects NATO to solve Libya's problems, now or after MG's departure, needs to adjust their expectations.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 05-05-2011 at 01:30 AM.

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    I've read that is easier for inexperienced people to fight from built up positions, which a city can probably be viewed as. The people of Misrata had the misfortune of not having anyplace to run to and the ironic good fortune of not having anyplace to run to. But they did have the heart. So maybe it is too much to ask the rebels in the east not to run like rabbits if they can; even if they do have the heart, they don't have the engineering capability to build fortifications in the open desert. They've had some time though and who knows what capabilities that time will give them.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    I've read that is easier for inexperienced people to fight from built up positions, which a city can probably be viewed as. The people of Misrata had the misfortune of not having anyplace to run to and the ironic good fortune of not having anyplace to run to. But they did have the heart. So maybe it is too much to ask the rebels in the east not to run like rabbits if they can; even if they do have the heart, they don't have the engineering capability to build fortifications in the open desert. They've had some time though and who knows what capabilities that time will give them.
    To a large extent true... but accounts from journalists have quite persistently and repeatedly described rebel forces in the east running at the first sign of attack and breaking off attacks at the first sign of resistance, though they apparently resisted effectively early on when they were pinned back into Benghazi.

    Obviously there are limits to what we know from a distance, but it does seem that if the rebels want to win they are going to have to fight effectively even when their backs are not up against a wall. Available reports suggest that they haven't done that so far.

    The upside of that, of course, is that the rebels will in the process develop some kind of leadership structure and organization, both military and civilian, which they will desperately need if they ever take power. One of the problems that comes up when an old rotten government simply collapses in the face of disorganized street protests is that the old elite typically retains control, because there's no remotely organized force representing the interests of those who rebelled.

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    In reply to my comment:

    Originally Posted by JMA
    BTW... I agree with hitting hard and leaving... with the promise that "if we have any more trouble from you lot, we will be back with some more of the same."
    Ken responded:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    That makes much more sense than the ineffectual efforts seen over the last 50 plus years -- and today.

    Now, if we can just get the inane politicians geared up (the Media will not be a problem, they'll jump at the idea...).
    I noticed your reply in the Journal - From Roman Legions to Navy SEALs: Military Raiding and its Discontents where you quoted Stonewall Jackson as follows:

    "War means fighting. The business of the soldier is to fight. Armies are not called out to dig trenches, to throw up breastworks, to live in camps, but to find the enemy and strike him; to invade his country, and do him all possible damage in the shortest possible time. This will involve great destruction of life and property while it lasts; but such a war will of necessity be of brief continuance, and so would be an economy of life and property in the end. To move swiftly, strike vigorously, and secure all the fruits of victory is the secret of successful war."
    Having not read that quotation before I was excited by how well it explained how I feel in this regard. Truly nothing new under the sun. I must read more about this man to understand what made him tick and how he put these words into action.

    I did take a quick look at some other quotes and found this one also resonates with me:

    "Once you get them running, you stay right on top of them, and that way a small force can defeat a large one every time... Only thus can a weaker country cope with a stronger; it must make up in activity what it lacks in strength."
    Great stuff and this one:

    "I yield to no man in sympathy for the gallant men under my command; but I am obliged to sweat them tonight, so that I may save their blood tomorrow."
    Must have been some soldier this man Jackson... in the days when officers were leaders and not managers.

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    AJDABIYA, LIBYA — The United States, European allies and other nations have dispatched representatives to the Libyan opposition’s ruling council. But on the ground here, credit for helping to get the rebel army into shape goes to military advisers from the tiny Arabian Peninsula emirate of Qatar.

    Qatar was the first Arab country to formally recognize the political legitimacy of the rebel council in Benghazi and the first to provide military assistance, sending six Mirage fighter jets to help NATO enforce the no-fly zone in March. Qatar also helped the rebel leadership sell oil to help finance the fledgling administration. Now, it is alone in providing military training to the rebels, officials say.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...V1G_story.html
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    Default Hello South Africa,

    The definitive biography (unless Ken disagrees ) is by a Brit, G.F.R. Henderson - good book and good maps. Jackson (like any number of other American Jacksons) was Irish - from Uster, of Scots-Irish ancestry, his great-grandfather came to the future US in 1748. Lewis Puller (not a bad tactician himself) carried a copy of Henderson's book along with him (a present from his wife) on Puller's campaigns through the PTO in WWII.

    Regards

    Mike

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