And Libya goes on...

[jcustis]

The people in the region who have the most experience with clandestine organizations are not people we like much but because of their experience, organization and money they might gain a lot power within any continuing anti-dictator resistance.

Are you referring to the Iranians?

[carl]

Are you referring to the Iranians?

I was thinking of the various Jihadi extremists. I didn't think of the Iranians but maybe they would want to get in on it too.

[Entropy]

If the dictator wins and drives out all the open opposition but does not crush the spirit of the opposition, then an insurgency of some kind might begin. That would require a clandestine organization or assistance to establish one. The people in the region who have the most experience with clandestine organizations are not people we like much but because of their experience, organization and money they might gain a lot power within any continuing anti-dictator resistance. If that happened, then what do we do? (I know there are a lot of ifs there.)

Those are some of the reasons I think this is going to end up like OSW. OSW/ONW had similar mandates - to "protect the population" via the limited means of air power. That is not a mission air power can do very well.

Additionally, if we fail to protect the rebels (as looks increasingly likely), much less enable their rebellion to succeed, we will be reluctant to call it quits for a variety of reasons. In short, what is our "out" if we fail to affect the situation on the ground? IMO, we'll continue to "protect civilians" with an enduring NFZ.

I hope I'm wrong in this, but I don't see many alternatives given the strategy, such as it is, and the limited means assigned to it.