And Libya goes on...

[Bob's World]

Having Qaddafi remain in power as part of a political strategy is a non-option.

1) The man is deeply unpopular in Libya, and indeed across the Middle East. The international community would be seen as complicit in protecting him.

2) The man is crazy. This is not a term I use lightly, but it fully applies in this case. I think the chances he will ever voluntarily leave power or step down are close to zero.

3) Despite the changes in the Egypt and Tunisia, the Arab world is still a club of dictators, and has little credibility (or interest) in a democratic transition in Libya, even if they would like Qaddafi to go.

4) As we know from Cambodia, a heavy UN presence is no guarantee that a dictator will actually leave in the end. Some 17 years after losing the 1993 elections (guaranteed by 21,500 UNTAC peacekeepers, at a cost of $1.5 billion), he is still effectively in power.

But to simply create a gaping hole and see who falls into it is not the best way to go. Clearly it would have to be a closely structured deal, perhaps with a son instead of him, but also on a 12-18month term to have some stability as the transition works out. Plus this is, as I said, far bigger than one man and one state, what we do sends a message to the entire region. We don't do ourselves any favors if we make every other dictator in the region feel like their back is against a wall.