And Libya goes on...

[Stan]

Today's item...

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/2...-as-libya.html

I'm actually intrigued by the general lack of discussion on the Libyan situation here... as opposed, to, say, the Egyptian revolt at its peak.

Reading most of the current American concerns seems we’re content so long as the rebels in the east continue to promise oil flowing even if Gadhafi clings to power in the capital. I guess we all have our priorities!

I would not want to see US ground forces involved, but a no-fly zone seems reasonable, and it does seem that if at some point a specific concentration of pro-regime forces could be identified, a cruise missile in time (channeling JMA here, I know) might have a real impact on the calculations of others.
It might also be possible to offer air support to rebel forces in Zawiyah and Misurata, or to declare that government forces moving toward those locations would be subject to attack. .

This one bugs me a bit. How do we claim to stay neutral in all this after we shoot aircraft down over a sovereign country? We hid behind some UN chapter in 1986 (barely), had no support from neighboring countries (for an over flight clearance), blew up the French embassy in Tripoli with guided munitions, and, we have no clue at this point who will emerge as the critical opposition.

Might also be worth considering making a blanket offer to the mercenaries: anyone who jumps ship now gets a ride home and a little packet of cash. It must be crossing some mercenary minds about now that if the regime goes down the neighborhood would likely become extremely unhealthy for them. The big man presumably has a jet waiting to take him to some undisclosed location where he has substantial assets in place, but there would not be room for the boys on the street and the populace might be a wee bit hostile.

Seems cheaper and very doable. Say 50K for him dead or alive !

I have some doubts over the impact of sanctions in a case like this.

Fully concur. But, we froze his money (never understood who actually gets that cash each time we freeze it), so all he has left is to squander what’s available in-country before he sets sail for Venezuela to hang with Hugo (who wasted no time bashing the USA).