And Libya goes on...

[tequila]

The GCC (what does that stand for?), the AU, the EU et al taking the lead would be the best thing of course. Of course, they being completely ineffectual organizations, they won't take the lead on anything. The wait for them may be a long one.

The GCC stands for Gulf Cooperation Council, and they're already deploying troops to Bahrain to help contain/crush/defend against a much less violent protest movement. Not so ineffectual when they really want to move - they're just not moving in the direction of liberalism.

[carl]

Ken:

I figure if you ask the question: Can a man's actions be moral or immoral? The answer will be yes. To the question: Can a group of men's actions be moral of immoral? I would say yes. By extension then a large group of humans action's can be moral or immoral ergo a nation's actions can be moral or immoral. In theory anyway. Things can get complicated when judging the actions of individuals comprising that nation state because of coercion, social dynamics etc.

You disagree that nations can be judged moral or not. We have a pretty fundamental disagreement then and it will probably not be resolved easily or here.

Back to Libya though. There was a twitter a few minutes ago by Galrahn to the effect that the Libyan rebels have been joined by jets of the Free Libyan Air Force. If that is true the whole question about a no fly zone may be moot. I wonder if we are doing something completely unseen to get those jets into action.

P.S. Thank you sir. It is well appreciated.

[tequila]

Qaddafi Forces Seize Another Rebel Stronghold

AJDABIYA, Libya — Behind tanks, heavy artillery and airstrikes, forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi routed on Tuesday a ragtag army of insurgents and would-be revolutionaries who were holding the last defensive line before the rebel capital of Benghazi.

Blasts of incoming fire came every few seconds at the edge of this city straddling a strategic highway intersection where rebels have bulldozed berms and filled hundreds of sandbags around two metal green arches marking the western approaches to the city. As the shelling intensified on Tuesday, hundreds of cars packed with children, mattresses, suitcases — anything that could be grabbed and packed in — careened through the streets as residents fled. Long lines of cars could be seen on the highway heading north to the Benghazi, about 100 miles away.

In Benghazi itself, though, there were no signs of preparations for a vigorous defense.

The barrage offered a loud and ferocious counterpoint to stalled efforts by Western diplomats to agree on help for the retreating rebels, like a no-flight zone, even as Colonel Qaddafi warned the insurgents on Tuesday that they had only one choice: surrender or flee. By Tuesday afternoon, the pro-Qaddafi forces had taken control of the road to Benghazi to the east, cutting off the rebels’ main line of retreat, The Associated Press reported, citing rebel sources ..

Looks like the curtain may be coming down on this one. Pity the people of Libya.

[JMA]

Ken:

I figure if you ask the question: Can a man's actions be moral or immoral? The answer will be yes. To the question: Can a group of men's actions be moral of immoral? I would say yes. By extension then a large group of humans action's can be moral or immoral ergo a nation's actions can be moral or immoral. In theory anyway. Things can get complicated when judging the actions of individuals comprising that nation state because of coercion, social dynamics etc.

I agree with you on this Carl.

Back to Libya though. There was a twitter a few minutes ago by Galrahn to the effect that the Libyan rebels have been joined by jets of the Free Libyan Air Force. If that is true the whole question about a no fly zone may be moot. I wonder if we are doing something completely unseen to get those jets into action.

It appears the Germans were running intereference for Russia to stall agreement on a no fly zone. So what leverage have the Russians used on Germany or what is the hitherto unknown German/Libyan connection?

The French are sounding a little more belicose which is nice to see (for a change) and Cameron seems game for a little coordinated Anglo-French air action.

(With a bit of luck Europe (at least Britain and France) will be able to act on a situation on their doorstep and be able to flip to the finger to the US as well. A good excuse to pull pull their troops out of Afghanistan?)

Yes, fascinating reports of jets and helicopter gunships. We know that two jets flew to Malta.

[Ken White]

...By extension then a large group of humans action's can be moral or immoral ergo a nation's actions can be moral or immoral. In theory anyway. Things can get complicated when judging the actions of individuals comprising that nation state because of coercion, social dynamics etc.(emphasis added / kw)

Yes.

We have a pretty fundamental disagreement then and it will probably not be resolved easily or here.

Yep, nor does it have to be. It's said that if two people are in total agreement, one of them is probably unnecessary. So we can agree to disagree and move on.

Keep on pushin'

[Stan]

It appears the Germans were running intereference for Russia to stall agreement on a no fly zone. So what leverage have the Russians used on Germany or what is the hitherto unknown German/Libyan connection?

Hmmm, how about a private gas pipeline into your back yard for starters

The French are sounding a little more belicose which is nice to see (for a change) and Cameron seems game for a little coordinated Anglo-French air action.

With all this talk of moral courage and Rwanda (the church did it ), nice to see the French stepping up to the plate. Maybe this time they'll actually work with us vs hiding the guilty

[carl]

Looks like the curtain may be coming down on this one. Pity the people of Libya.

You're probably right. The guy over at Nightwatch says the end of the week.

I've been reading a lot of things though and I wonder if we can judge the true strength of the opposing forces accurately. Gaddafi is deeply unpopular to begin with. The use of mercenaries probably made him more so. Somebody commented that in WWII things swung vast distances and back again repeatedly in that area. In Chad a pickup truck borne invasion force crossed the country and attacked the capital before anybody knew they were there. The rebels seem to have a lot of pickups mounted with heavy machine guns and all those pickups are better than anything the Long Range Desert Group had. It is probably very difficult to protect the whole length of that coastal road from people going around to the south and coming in from the desert. Those things might be important, maybe not.

Also Crowbat suggested that the early stout resistance may have sapped a lot of the regimes strength.

Say, where is Crowbat anyway?

[JMA]

Hmmm, how about a private gas pipeline into your back yard for starters

Well the Germans aren't what they used to be. Financially strong but sadly sell-outs now as well...

With all this talk of moral courage and Rwanda (the church did it ), nice to see the French stepping up to the plate. Maybe this time they'll actually work with us vs hiding the guilty

Wouldn't the French just love to have acted with a positive outcome and be able to strut their stuff before the world as a result.

...not holding my breath though.

[JMA]

I suggest now that it is necessary to merely defend Benghazi against Gaddafi - forget a general no fly zone draw a circle around Benghazi.

It seems the "rebels" captured some aircraft when they took Benghazi and perhaps these are the ones which reportedly made an appearance recently.

They need help with the securing of Benghazi.

The people who rose against Gaddafi in the West of the country have been betrayed. What will the fate of the people in Benghazi be?

[Dayuhan]

Well the Germans aren't what they used to be. Financially strong but sadly sell-outs now as well...

Yes, a terrible sad thing it is. Maybe we can convince Fuchs to go out and invade Poland, bring back the happy days of old.

Of course all sorts of things can happen, as Tom Lehrer reminds us:

Once all the Germans were warlike and mean,
but that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson in 1918
and they've hardly bothered us since then....

Wouldn't the French just love to have acted with a positive outcome and be able to strut their stuff before the world as a result.

If the French had a way of getting victorious war into the past tense without having to pass it through the present, they'd have conquered the world by now.

And to get back on topic...

The people who rose against Gaddafi in the West of the country have been betrayed. What will the fate of the people in Benghazi be?

How were they betrayed? Were any promises broken or commitments reneged on? If some external party encouraged them to rebel with promises of assistance, and then failed to bring the assistance, that would be betrayal. Was any such promise made?

[carl]

Nightwatch reported that the French Foreign Minister stated that '"Qadhafi has fewer than "20 operational fighter planes and not many more helicopters,"'.

If words were deeds they would all be powdered aluminum by now.

(The above is just frustrated venting, and it is not a shot at the French.)

[M-A Lagrange]

Must say that I feel a little like JMA!

Our governments talk and talk about democracy, right of the people, legitimacy... And when it comes to actually act against one f#@$&%$# dictator as G: nothing! not even a no fly zone that would have equilibrate the forces between government and insurgents.
For once that insurgents were on the good guys side!

Don't wonder why most of the populations in arab world will now hate us!

As JMA said in a different threat: I wished our governments had balls sometimes.

[Flying Carpet]

The reporting about Gaddafi sounds familiar. Like international outcasts before him (Saddam, Milosevic) he is supposed to be without supporters. But as we were wrong with those people it looks like we may be wrong with Gaddafi.

For a long time it looked like the fall of Gaddafi was imminent. Even his tribesmen seemed reluctant to defend him. But when the rebels were about to conquer Gaddafi's hometown Sirte that reluctance suddenly disappeared and Gaddafi launched a successful offensive.

So far I can only guess what happened but I suppose that somehow it became clear that a victory for the opposition tribes would mean revenge on those tribes who had supported Gaddafi through all those years.

Just days before Gaddafi and Chavez had called for negotiations. In this climate of tribal conflict that certainly would have been the best solution. It is a pity that the international community didn't support that initiative.

Instead we seem to make the classical error of taking sides in an ethnic conflict. There is absolutely no reason to suppose that the Eastern Libyans will be more liberal when we offer them power. The presence in their leadership of Libya's former ministers of justice and interior doesn't bode well. By supporting them we may simply be replacing one dictatorship with another.

The core of American democracy is not the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. It is somewhere in the tension between them. Similarly a multi-ethnic democracy is not about one group having all the power and the other being powerless but in a permanent give-and-take tension between them.

[JMA]

Must say that I feel a little like JMA!

Our governments talk and talk about democracy, right of the people, legitimacy... And when it comes to actually act against one f#@$&%$# dictator as G: nothing! not even a no fly zone that would have equilibrate the forces between government and insurgents.
For once that insurgents were on the good guys side!

Don't wonder why most of the populations in arab world will now hate us!

As JMA said in a different threat: I wished our governments had balls sometimes.

Its all about consistency isn't it.

In the good old third world (Africa in this case) if a big man (in this case Obama) talks a lot about an issue he is expected to stand by his words. Failure to do so will be seen as weakness (as in this case). So the moral of the story is that the Obama/Clinton tag-team should have kept their big mouths shut unless they were prepared to backup their promises with action.

It all a joke really when Obama and that Clinton woman promises that "Libyan Officials Could Be Held for War Crimes"

When that will be, who knows. Maybe like Osama or Ratko Mladić it will be at some distant point in the future if anyone cares to get around to it. So if Gaddafi kills 1,000 or 1 million in the meantime, who cares right? Do we see another Clinton-esque speech of regret over Libya like we saw over Rwanda some time in the future?

If acted at the right moment all it would have taken is 3 cruise missiles. Instead we see dithering indecision which if demonstrated on an OSB (officer selection board) would lead to an instant fail grading and a train ticket home.

Can you believe that the "talking head" Jay Carney says that weeks into this saga his boss is still at this level of dithering indecision:

He said Obama was asking "is this an option that can be effective? Is it the right option? What are the costs associated with it? What are the risks associated with it? And will it – when I say the right option… what confidence do we have that it will achieve the goals that we set if we were to implement it, because it is not a minor undertaking."

...absolutely useless!

[AdamG]

Just days before Gaddafi and Chavez had called for negotiations. In this climate of tribal conflict that certainly would have been the best solution. It is a pity that the international community didn't support that initiative.

Why is this surprising? With enough cash, you can go anywhere on the planet and raise a mini-army of thugs, Igors and Quislings that'll do your bidding.

Gaddafi has cash, lots of it, and he has a long history of using 'foreign' mercenaries. Again, shouldn't be a surprise when the payroll extends to the locals.

The Libyans are fighting for their freedom from a Tyrant, which doesn't necessarily translate to 'Democracy', as it's defined in Europe or the US.

[JMA]

The reporting about Gaddafi sounds familiar. Like international outcasts before him (Saddam, Milosevic) he is supposed to be without supporters. But as we were wrong with those people it looks like we may be wrong with Gaddafi.

For a long time it looked like the fall of Gaddafi was imminent. Even his tribesmen seemed reluctant to defend him. But when the rebels were about to conquer Gaddafi's hometown Sirte that reluctance suddenly disappeared and Gaddafi launched a successful offensive.

So far I can only guess what happened but I suppose that somehow it became clear that a victory for the opposition tribes would mean revenge on those tribes who had supported Gaddafi through all those years.

Just days before Gaddafi and Chavez had called for negotiations. In this climate of tribal conflict that certainly would have been the best solution. It is a pity that the international community didn't support that initiative.

Instead we seem to make the classical error of taking sides in an ethnic conflict. There is absolutely no reason to suppose that the Eastern Libyans will be more liberal when we offer them power. The presence in their leadership of Libya's former ministers of justice and interior doesn't bode well. By supporting them we may simply be replacing one dictatorship with another.

The core of American democracy is not the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. It is somewhere in the tension between them. Similarly a multi-ethnic democracy is not about one group having all the power and the other being powerless but in a permanent give-and-take tension between them.

Who was it that first introduced the issue of the civil war?

If a certain group had benefited disproportionately due to their ethnic or other links with the regime they would be concerned of the pendulum effect after a regime change. Gaddafi would have known that his only chance of survival would be to create a tribal based civil war and be prepared to throw literally billions at it... and thereby save his ass.

I would have thought this was obvious...

If Gaddafi and Chavez wanted talks do you really (and I mean this) think that they would have sought an honest settlement with the rebels? But as you seem to imply... better the devil you know...

[AdamG]

Libyan militia get nutrolled.
http://livefist.blogspot.com/2011/03...anuf-fell.html

[Fuchs]

From an interview with a journalist who has been in Arab countries for 20 years:

El-Gawhary: Zuletzt hat mich eine Geschichte aus Libyen beeindruckt. Sie handelte von einem Mann, der 48 Jahre alt war – so alt wie ich. Er hatte ein gutes Leben, war bei einer Ölfirma angestellt, hatte zwei Töchter, die eine gute Ausbildung genossen. Allerdings lebte er in der Nähe einer Kaserne in Bengasi: Tagelang versuchten Jugendliche die Kaserne zu stürmen und wurden von den Gaddafi-Leuten abgeschossen. Eines Tages hat er die Verletzten abtransportiert und kam mit blutigen Händen heim. Seine Familie hatte keine Ahnung, welche Konsequenz er daraus zog. Er packte sein Auto voll mit Kochgasflaschen, kaufte Dynamit und fuhr mit dem Auto in das Tor der Kaserne. Er hat sich in die Luft gesprengt, damit das Ganze aufhört. Damit die Jugendlichen die Kaserne stürmen können. Dieser Mann war eben kein Fanatiker, er war ein ganz normaler Familienvater, ein Mensch wie du und ich. Nur irgendwann hat er diese Situation nicht mehr ausgehalten und die Konsequenz gezogen. Wenn man das rüberbringt, wenn die Leute verstehen, warum jemand so etwas macht, dann ist es eine gute Geschichte.

http://www.falter.at/web/print/detail.php?id=1354

In short: There was a 48 y.o. middle class man with family and good job living near Benghazi who observed how the youth attempted to overrun pro-Gaddaffi barracks for days. He was not fanatic. On one day he came back with bloody hands after helping to rescue some wounded.
Nobody expected what he did next; loaded his car with propane gas bottles, bought dynamite and drove it into the gate of the barracks to put an end to it.



I think this story was worth being repeated because it shows a lot; about the conflict in Libya and possibly also about suicide attacks.

[Flying Carpet]

Who was it that first introduced the issue of the civil war?

If a certain group had benefited disproportionately due to their ethnic or other links with the regime they would be concerned of the pendulum effect after a regime change. Gaddafi would have known that his only chance of survival would be to create a tribal based civil war and be prepared to throw literally billions at it... and thereby save his ass.

I would have thought this was obvious...

If Gaddafi and Chavez wanted talks do you really (and I mean this) think that they would have sought an honest settlement with the rebels? But as you seem to imply... better the devil you know...

This is not just about benefitting. Google on "Libya tribe" and you will find quite a few stories about killings during Gaddafi's reign that might be revenged.

You seem to find it reasonable that being disadvantaged Gaddafi's opponents take revenge. I disagree. I can understand it but experience learns that that kind of revenge always leads to serious fighting and in the end harms everyone. And I don't think that in the West should support such a revenge.

Gaddafi is a realist. He has made u-turns in the past. Just a week ago many thought he might loose. It is very well possible that he wanted to save his ass. So what? Giving Gaddafi amnesty in exchange for his departure might hurt the sense of justice of some people but it would have been a small price to pay for peace.

[Surferbeetle]

Running, now walk-jogging for some , is interesting. Interval training is a good way to build up ones physical and mental strength. The mind and body can only take so much and as a result sprints only last for so long...the majority of one's time is not spent sprinting but running or jogging as the case may be. My Iraqi friends would good-naturedly tease me when they observed me engaging in this behavior and ask 'Who is chasing you?'

Part of the job as I see it is to give hope and help out where one can. This doesn't mean promising, delivering, or arranging for loans for Cadillacs and BMW's nor does it mean instantaneously slaughtering enemies for others via JDAM's or IED's (as the oil company worker did) or otherwise. Knowledge is more important than things (a book tightly shut is but a block of paper, dig the well before you are thirsty, give a man a fish and you feed him for a day - teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime, yadda, yadda, yadda....)

The International Visitor Leadership Program is one way the US helps, to coach through experience, others to see another way to do things. Participants are not forced to participate or believe in the experience. But it is a datapoint which can be used (as a positive or negative example) when contemplating about what is the right way to do things.

The International Visitors Leadership Program (IVLP) is a U.S. Department of State initiative. Authorized by the Mutual Educational and Cultural Exchange Act of 1961 (Fulbright-Hays Act), funded by an annual Congressional appropriation to the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, and administered by the Office of International Visitors, this program aims to enhance cross-cultural understanding by providing future foreign leaders in government, politics, media, education, science, labor relations, and other key fields with firsthand knowledge of American society.

Selected by American embassies, participants are up and coming leaders in their fields. Since 1941, hundreds of former participants under the International Visitor Leadership Program have risen to important positions in their countries. Among the alumni are over 200 current and former chiefs of state or heads of government and more than 1500 cabinet-level ministers.

The phrase 'lets do things in the right way' is something I heard often in Iraq while out and about. Perhaps this is part of what was meant.

We also worked on coaching a few teachers about how to develop small businesses for the many who stayed home. Skilled locals's would help to teach fellow citizens business principles such as basic accounting, supply chain management, business plans/feasibility studies, business clusters, etc. We were not alone in this type of work.

None of these things are as fast as pulling the trigger of a gun or thumbing a detonator, but the majority of life is not spent sprinting around now is it?