The North Caucasus: Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia

[Jedburgh]

Russia Profile, 22 Jul 08: Similar, But Different: Radical Islam is the universal challenge in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan

The Northern Caucasus today has diverse problems that are impossible to solve “using the same measure.” However, as this region “awakens” and bears witness to an increase of protesting attitudes, the Caucasus, more than ever before, needs a comprehensive Russian strategy of development.

Despite multiple reports about the stabilization of the situation in the Russian Caucasus, the number of problems in this region does not decrease on a daily basis......

[bourbon]

The Jihadi Insurgency and the Russian Counterinsurgency in the North Caucasus, by Gordon M. Hahn. Post-Soviet Affairs, Volume 24, Number 1 / January-March 2008.

Abstract
A political scientist reviews the vicissitudes of the Caucasus jihadi insurgency and Russia's counterinsurgency efforts since 2005, drawing on the press, jihadist websites, and scholarship on insurgencies and counterinsurgencies. The development of jihadi-oriented fighting units, the rise and decline of Maskhadov's supremacy, the rise of Islamist elements, the Chechen separatist movement and the expansion of the jihad, Moscow's counter-jihadi successes, the jihadi network after the death of Basayev, and the rise and career of Ramzan Kadyrov are examined. These events are analyzed in terms of the dynamics of insurgency and counterinsurgency conflict.

39 Page pdf at the link.

I've been looking for examinations of Russian counterinsurgency in the Kadyrov era. Came across this and thought I would share it.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 18 Nov 08: Violence in the North Caucasus: Trends Since 2004

Since January 2004, CSIS staff have been compiling, almost daily, a database that tracks violent incidents occurring in the North Caucasus. The following figures draw on this database, through August 31, 2008.

Due to the nature of these incidents and the difficulty in finding trusted reporting, we are not in a position to verify all of them. We will, however, continue to update our database as information is made available to us......

[Jedburgh]

Russian Analytical Digest, 4 Dec 08: Chechnya and the North Caucasus

■ Analysis
The North Caucasus after the Georgia-Russia Conflict

■ Opinion Poll
Russian Public Opinion on the Conflict in the North Caucasus
Views of Inhabitants of Dagestan on the State of Affairs in Their Republic

■ Analysis
War and Peace in Chechnya: The Role of Ramzan Kadyrov

■ Opinion Poll
Russian Views of Kadyrov

[kaur]

Judging by the statistics given, the troops in the past month, daily engaged in at least two special operation. This is a great deal, considering that officially it is estimated that more than three years, the military phase is over in Chechnya. Almost a year ago, Deputy Interior Minister Arkady Edelev reported that in Chechnya «operate up to 500 militants and their accomplices». Note that these figures, but throughout the North Caucasus in March 2008 promulgated the chief internal troops of ministry of interior affairs of Russia Army General Nikolai Rogozhkin. He stressed that at that time in the North Caucasus operated from 400 to 500 fighters. After that, only in Chechnya, according to official data, have been cleared more than 540 militants.

So fighters neutralize, destroy, but they re-appear. Military, let us not once argued that the ranks of militants are fueled by young people going into the mountains, as well as acting in the underground. This increase in participants illegal armed formations is fixed, not only in Chechnya but also in other republics of the region. Thus, the same Arkadij Edelev notes that in Chechnya today there are about 500 fighters, at least 120 fighting in Ingushetia. «Thus, - concludes Edelev - support base in Ingushetia is estimated at 1237 people». However, where in general these figures are accurate supporters, remains unclear.

http://www.ng.ru/politics/2009-02-16....html?mthree=3

via google translate.

[kaur]

Yesterday Russian premier Putin visited Ramzan Kadyrov's father's grave (formere Chechen president) in Checnya. It seems that VIP protection is on the highest level. Choppers are flying really close. Push on the picture on the right hand column.

www.1tv.ru/news/n150375

[bourbon]

Chechnya and Its Neighbors Suffer a Relapse, By Ellen Barry. The New York Times, August 30, 2009.

That case is difficult to make after the summer of 2009. Explosions and shootings have been a daily occurrence in the region all summer. Between June and August, 436 people have been killed, compared with 150 during the same months in 2008. And the number of attacks jumped to 452 from 265, according to statistics compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private research group based in Washington.

The numbers do not fully capture what has happened. High-ranking officials have been strafed with machine-gun fire, targeted by snipers as they strolled out of restaurants or rammed with cars packed with explosives. A prominent human rights worker was snatched outside her apartment, killed and left on a roadside.

And suicide bombings, ominously, have returned to Chechnya after a pause of several years. Two militants blew themselves up Friday morning to escape capture, making it a total of three suicide bombings in the region in just the past week.

Interesting the speculation that Kadyrov might be replaced, and someone from Moscow brought in. That would unite the Chechen's against the external influence, and Moscow will have an even bigger problem.