The North Caucasus: Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to Cerwyn Moore, the author of this article, which is on-line for a limited period. From the opening:

This essay analyses Chechen-related suicide attacks, locating them within the historical and political context of the anti-Russian insurgency in the North Caucasus and the different factions of the anti-Russian armed resistance movement in the period between the first and second Russo-Chechen wars. The core of the essay is an analysis of the different character of two waves of suicide operations, (2000–2002) and (2002–2004). The first wave was linked to nominally Islamist groups, whereas the second set of attacks were linked to Operation Boomerang devised by Shamil Basaev. Finally, the essay considers other attacks that do not fit into either of these two waves of terrorism.

(It ends with) the analysis in this essay serves to debunk many of the myths, often repeated in popular studies, associated with Chechen-related suicide attacks.

Link:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...36.2012.718421

[SWJ Blog]

The Russian Counterinsurgency Operation in Chechnya Part 1: Winning the Battle, Losing the War, 1994 – 1996

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[SWJ Blog]

The Russian Counterinsurgency Operation in Chechnya Part 2: Success, But at What Cost? 1999 – 2004

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[davidbfpo]

A useful reminder by IISS on what is happening in the region; where the insurgents have caused everyone a few surprises in the past:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...casus-emirate/

Russia's counter-terrorism effort has assumed greater urgency since the 2014 Winter Olympic Games were awarded to Sochi, a popular resort city in the North Caucasus......(much later)...the Olympic Games have in the past proven to be a highly valued terrorist target, and the 2014 Sochi venue is probably seen by the CE as an opportunity to make its mark on the global stage.

Useful to see where the insurgents have spread and launched attacks, some pre-empted.

Personally I think there has been much hype around the terrorist threat to the Olympics Games.

In due course I will merge this into the main thread on the region and Chechnya.

[bourbon]

I am not convinced that the CE wants to “make its mark on the global stage”.

At the very least, Russia greatly benefits from conflating the CE with the Global Salafi Jihad; and frankly I would not be surprised if they have cynically used jihadis to subvert and undermine the Chechen Independence movement, trading the occasional mass atrocity attack in Russia for territorial integrity in the North Caucasus.

[davidbfpo]

As the Winter Olympics loom closer in Sochi, a Black Sea city in the Russian Federation, rather close to the Caucasus, has long been expected to be a target for Islamist groups based in the Caucasus.

There is an older thread, with no updates since late 2011 'Terrorism in Russia' at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10058

Dr Cerywn Moore, University of Birmingham (UK), is one of the few here who watches the region through the terrorism prism and following recent attacks has a backgrounder via RUSI:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment.../#.UtxHn9LFJkh

In summary:

The latest bombings in Russia is part of an ongoing war between Putin and Islamist rebels who feed upon a anti-federal, pan-Turkic and pan-Islamist narrative.

There is another RUSI commentary 'The Volgograd Bombings and the Winter Olympics' at:http://www.rusi.org/go.php?structure...8#.UtxLItLFJkg

The regional Islamist leader, Doku Umarov, was again IIRC declared as killed in action this week, going on some Twitter traffic. The BBC has nothing to support this.

[davidbfpo]

An Open Democracy article on this little known Russian republic by a local reporter (also works for Radio Liberty:

Asked to name Russia’s most troublesome region, most people would plump for Chechnya. But its neighbour Dagestan is now officially the most dangerous part of the Federation. In this republic of three million people there are sixty different ethnic groups, and not a week goes by without clashes between the police and insurgents, anti-terrorist special forces raids and explosions. It is also one of its least developed regions, with most of its financial needs met by subsidies from the centre. And its level of corruption is one of the highest in Russia as well.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russ...s-hottest-spot

[Jedburgh]

….Dagestan is now officially the most dangerous part of the Federation…

For those that follow the region, this is old news. Dagestan has accounted for more than half of all casualties of violence in the North Caucasus for a few years now, with a spike in the second quarter of 2012 that saw it account for just over two-thirds of such casualties. For those who like metrics, the Caucasian Knot offers victim stats; it also serves (the unabridged Russian version of the site) as one of the primary sources for the Open Source Center's tracking of incidents in the region.

[AdamG]

Initially posted as it's own thread for visibility, a nice writeup on our old buddies the Chechen Muj.

Fighters from Chechnya are one of the forces behind IS’s meteoric rise in Syria. The attraction to jihad is not only ideological but practical.

“The Syrian ‘jihad’ began as a sort of proxy conflict for fighters who could not go home to fight in Chechnya or Dagestan,” says Joanna Paraszczuk, a journalist and blogger who has lived and worked in the Middle East and Russia and has a special interest in researching Russian-speaking foreign fighters in Syria. Many of them, she says, are wanted by security authorities.

http://syriadirect.org/main/36-inter...-islamic-state

Moderator at work: this post was in a stand alone, with 2.4k views then merged into a 2015 thread andf now merged to here (ends).

[davidbfpo]

A long article 'Russia’s Playing a Double Game With Islamic Terror' in The Daily Beast by Michael Weiss; the sub-title is:

Even as America touts its counterterrorism partnerships with Russia, evidence points to the FSB directly feeding Dagestanis to ISIS

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...c-terror.html?

I have placed the thread here as whilst Moscow features, the Caucasus is the focal point. IRRC allegations have been made before that supposedly legendary Chechen fighters are in the Middle East, Weiss assembles a good case that they are in effect being exported. Note he relies on one study of a village as a test case.

A couple of choice passages:

It may sound paradoxical—helping the enemy of your friend—but the logic is actually straightforward: Better the terrorists go abroad and fight in Syria than blow things up in Russia. Penetrating and co-opting terrorism also has a long, well-attested history in the annals of Chekist tradecraft.

Hence a reported 50% drop in violence in the region.

Not that exporting Islamist fighters, many then aspiring and without extensive experience, is unprecedented - remember Afghanistan? Weiss cites the head of the Jamestown Foundation:

What’s the most significant policy decision we made to bring down the Soviet Union? Us sending foreign fighters into Afghanistan. This is the perfect form of payback. Create a quagmire in Syria, get us bogged down—all the while, offer your cooperation in helping to root out terrorism.

One wonders how the Assad regime and their Iranian allies view this export drive. I expect the Syrians know all too well what is going on and of course Russia still supplies ample ammunition and weapons.

Moderator at work: this post was in a stand alone thread, with 5k views now merged to here (ends).

[davidbfpo]

The Chechens were reported to be going to Afghanistan in this 2007 thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3754

A cautionary note and wise words from Tom Odom.

[davidbfpo]

An Open Democracy article; that starts with:

t’s no secret that young men and women from the North Caucasus are fighting in Iraq and Syria for Islamic State. From Europe, where they lived as refugees, and Egypt and Syria, where they studied in religious institutes, men and women originally from Russia’s North Caucasus have been travelling to join Islamic State (IS) over the past 18 months. But there are also young men and women who have travelled to Iraq and Syria from Chechnya itself. And now these fighters are appearing on YouTube, declaring they will return to their homeland and ‘put things right’. Chechnya’s security services, however, are trying to limit the influence of IS ideology on the republic’s youth, which continues to emigrate under various guises.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...te-in-chechnya

[davidbfpo]

A rare report on a village in Dagestan, in summary:

This village used to house one of the North Caucasus’ most dangerous Islamist paramilitary units. With the Russian state nowhere to be seen, Gubden has started policing—and developing—itself.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...ice-themselves

[craigdouglasalbert]

Why aren't more people paying attention to Chechnya?
Here is a commentary I wrote concerning it: I would love some feedback.

http://chronicle.augusta.com/opinion...chen-extremism

[Bill Moore]

Craig,

Welcome to SWJ. I encourage you to use the search function on SWJ, and I'm believe you'll find considerable information on Chechnya. Not just a regional issue, we fought their extremists in Afghanistan, and they play a role in the Islamic State. If you look at the Ukraine thread, there are reports of Chechens fighting there also, allegedly at the invite of the Russians.

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...light=chechnya

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...light=chechnya

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/che...sources-at-swj

[craigdouglasalbert]

Yes, thank you. I am writing a larger manuscript using these resources; I am looking at the CE as well as what I call the looming ethnic civil war in Chechnya; the factions there are ready to war with one another.
Thanks,

[davidbfpo]

Cited in part:

Why aren't more people paying attention to Chechnya?

Craig,

For many reasons most regular SWJ posters watches other places than the Caucasus region and those places can change. Secondly for a long time I suspect many people thought the Chechen fighters threat was exaggerated, so tended to dismiss Chechens and Chechnya. Add in the difficulty for most media to report within the region - which is very rare - so one is left with accepting state or insurgent views or locating a reliable distant observer.

Many readers I suspect think Chechnya is "In Russia's backyard" so leave it to them. Then when Chechens appear in the Ukraine, on both sides, it gets confusing.

So you are welcome to present your viewpoint and readers.

[AdamG]

Some of us wrote about Chechnya twenty years ago. Your turn now.

[davidbfpo]

Showing @ the Frontline Club, London on Friday 12 June 2015, 7 PM an Al-Jazeera documentary:

In the space of just a few years, Chechnya has undergone a remarkable transformation. Gone are the minefields and piles of rubble, which have now been replaced by broad avenues, luxury boutiques and glass-fronted skyscrapers. It’s virtually impossible to see that there was ever a war.Award-winning journalist Manon Loizeau has spent the past 20 years covering the Chechen conflict. In Chechnya, War Without Trace she returns to the places she knew well, filming undercover, to examine the lasting effects of conflict with Russia.
Behind the gleaming facade of the new Grozny, Loizeau discovers women and men seemingly more terrified now than during all the years of war and occupation. Although a fifth of the population vanished during the war, a fear of persecution has led to a collective forgetting of history.
Loizeau mixes the moving stories of those who search in vain for their loved ones with footage capturing the newly-polished surface of Chechnya, a country that remains internally traumatised and restless.
Chechnya, War Without Trace won the Grand Prize of the World Organization Against Torture (OMCT) at 2015 FIFDH (Human Rights Forum and Film Festival) in Geneva.

Shortly after the showing it will appear on the club's YouTube channel, plus the Q&A:http://www.frontlineclub.com/screeni...hout-trace-qa/

[OUTLAW 09]

AND Putin does not already have a jihadi problem.............so what is he doing in Syria......?

875 Russian law enforcement officers were killed in Northern Caucasus since 2010
https://slon.ru/posts/59270