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Thread: The North Caucasus: Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia

  1. #61
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Yes, I should have used that phrase. It has been reported that Chechen oil is very lucrative for Russian Army Generals, so I can imagine there is some economic self interest in making sure Kadyrov does not get too powerful.

  2. #62
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    I think there is not only talk about oil. Generals deal with oli, lower ranks have their own business. For example couple weeks ago 1 OMON unit commander was arrested in Russia. His unit soldiers worked as super market security guards in Chechnya. They did this during their official working time.

    Here is article in Russian - http://www.gzt.ru/print/241379.html
    Last edited by kaur; 06-25-2009 at 06:35 AM.

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    During couple summer months there have been several serious incidents. To keep this thread going I should mention:

    1. assassination attempt of Jevkurov.

    http://www.russia-ic.com/news/show/8743/

    2. killing of construction minister.

    http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090812/155789698.html

    3. bomb in police HQ.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8204670.stm
    Last edited by kaur; 08-17-2009 at 09:18 AM.

  4. #64
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    Here is the video from the explosion site in Nazran. Click on the picture in the right hand box.

    www.1tv.ru/news/n149886

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    Yesterday Russian premier Putin visited Ramzan Kadyrov's father's grave (formere Chechen president) in Checnya. It seems that VIP protection is on the highest level. Choppers are flying really close. Push on the picture on the right hand column.

    www.1tv.ru/news/n150375

  6. #66
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Chechnya and Its Neighbors Suffer a Relapse, By Ellen Barry. The New York Times, August 30, 2009.
    That case is difficult to make after the summer of 2009. Explosions and shootings have been a daily occurrence in the region all summer. Between June and August, 436 people have been killed, compared with 150 during the same months in 2008. And the number of attacks jumped to 452 from 265, according to statistics compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private research group based in Washington.

    The numbers do not fully capture what has happened. High-ranking officials have been strafed with machine-gun fire, targeted by snipers as they strolled out of restaurants or rammed with cars packed with explosives. A prominent human rights worker was snatched outside her apartment, killed and left on a roadside.

    And suicide bombings, ominously, have returned to Chechnya after a pause of several years. Two militants blew themselves up Friday morning to escape capture, making it a total of three suicide bombings in the region in just the past week.
    Interesting the speculation that Kadyrov might be replaced, and someone from Moscow brought in. That would unite the Chechen's against the external influence, and Moscow will have an even bigger problem.

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    President Medvedev gathered North Caucasus leaders to his office 28.08. Kadyrov accused in the situation again Western special services. This is already xxx time. Could someone confirm this?

    News in Russian. Click on the picture on the right hand column. 04:00

    www.1tv.ru/news/n150685

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    Defence Academy of the UK, Sep 09: North Caucasus: Negative Trends
    Key Findings

    • Shortfalls in financial subsidies to North Caucasus republics will intensify and widen the cycle of violence which will affect the South Caucasus.

    • A widened cycle of violence would be harmful to Western interests in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

    • Reduced scale of subsidies contrasts sharply with the vast sums being spent by Russia on 2014 Olympics and financial aid to South Ossetia and Abkhazia and will intensify discontent.

    • Need for radical political reform: continuation of forceful measures alone will not improve the situation. Need for republics to elect their own leaders.

    • Greater investment in education, technical training, job creation and health care are needed for the young and the population in general.

    • Effective intelligence is needed to stop the flow of illegal funds into the North Caucasus.

    • Operations against illegal bandit formations must be conducted within the law: punishment of offenders must be effected openly through the courts.

  9. #69
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Eurasia security source

    The London-based IISS runs a series of seminars on Eurasian security that cover the region from different angles, for e.g. human rights: http://www.iiss.org/programmes/russi...egy-seminars-/

    Alas the seminars do not have podcasts, unlike the main meetings, but may give an indicator of who is an expert on the region and then search again.

    (I am an IISS member, but do not attend these meetings. Can't think why but it is usually South Asia that I attend).

    davidbfpo

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    Moscow’s “latest and most significant concession” to Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov – giving him control over counter-terrorist actions there – was made behind “a smoke screen” put up by the Kremlin in which Moscow said it was unhappy with the effort of the siloviki there and had decided to return control of operations there to the FSB.
    http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...s-control.html

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    October 2009.

    Georgia is training and lending safe passage to Al-Qaeda agents planning terrorist acts in the Russian Caucasus, the head of Russia's FSB secret service charged Tuesday.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091013...20091013073756

    August 2002.

    Fighting flared on Russia's border with Georgia today, as Georgian forces moved to drive out Chechen fighters from a lawless region near Chechnya that has become a flash point between the countries.
    The gorge, a wide valley north of the capital, Tbilisi, is reported to serve as a base for several dozen Islamic extremists possibly linked to Al Qaeda, as well as several hundred Chechen fighters living among some 4,000 refugees who fled after Russia started its second war in Chechnya in 1999.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/24/wo...irstrikes.html

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    Ingushetia President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has announced plans to revive there the role of “taips” – the traditional extended family organizations – in order to fight corruption and stop the continuing flow of young people into the bands of anti-government militants.
    ... he continues, because of another “Daghestani reality”: the dominance of older people in government institutions. In the republic’s Popular Assembly,” he points out, “there are 72 deputies. Of them only one – Gaziat Abuchov – is under 30, and only five are under 40.
    In short, “older people are deciding the problems of the young.” The same pattern holds across the North Caucasus. As a result, for young people, “the path to power is practically closed.” But those who go into the forests do so because there, “it is possible to stand up now,” something the tilt toward traditional structures dominated by the old will make things worse.
    http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...elying-on.html

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by bourbon View Post
    According to the Russian’s, foreigners - Arabs and Turks mostly - travel from cell to cell in the North Caucasus in an advisory role. Could be Chechen’s who can no longer operate at home. It also could just be one specialist who travels from republic to republic, the Caucasus Emirate likes to shift the locus of the insurgency. The Russian’s will likely try to blame the Georgian’s somehow, which could true. As Ken notes, it could also be the internet.

    The assassination in Vladikavkaz could have been related to business, politics, organized crime, or a combination thereof. I don’t know much about the incident, other than that it was a good shot.
    Bourbon just curious,

    Weren't snipers pretty active in the fighting in Chechnya? If so wouldn't this most likely corralate with the incidents regarding snipers in Ingushetia?

  14. #74
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    Default Another Murder in Russia's Secret War


  15. #75
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin23 View Post
    Weren't snipers pretty active in the fighting in Chechnya? If so wouldn't this most likely corralate with the incidents regarding snipers in Ingushetia?
    Have there been sniper attacks in Chechnya lately, is that what you are asking? I don't know. The insurgency has been more active in Ingushetia and Dagestan the last few years, when Chechnya cooled down a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bourbon View Post
    Have there been sniper attacks in Chechnya lately, is that what you are asking? I don't know. The insurgency has been more active in Ingushetia and Dagestan the last few years, when Chechnya cooled down a bit.
    No, I mean throughout the whole conflict in Chechnya weren't the use of sinpers by the rebels quite prominent, espeically when the fighting in the republic was quite intense?

    Because I'm thinking that perhaps like you said earlier that perhaps Chechen's are the one's training these sniper's in Ingushetia?

  17. #77
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin23 View Post
    No, I mean throughout the whole conflict in Chechnya weren't the use of sinpers by the rebels quite prominent, espeically when the fighting in the republic was quite intense?

    Because I'm thinking that perhaps like you said earlier that perhaps Chechen's are the one's training these sniper's in Ingushetia?
    Yes, snipers and designated marksmen were used by rebels in the first and second Chechen wars.

    Russian Army lore has it that there was a particularly deadly cadre of female biathletes turned mercenary snipers from Baltic states that wore white tights. These Amazon snipers or actually rumors of them manage to show wherever and whenever Russian forces are fighting. Surprised they have shown up in Ingushetia yet…..or maybe they are one training the snipers!

  18. #78
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Kadyrov says Doku Umarov, the emir of the Caucasus Emirate, may have been killed in a recent raid. Wait till the DNA test gets back, they have had a couple close calls with Umarov before.

  19. #79
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    Default This hasn’t been officially linked to N. Caucasus – yet

    An IED attack 200 miles northwest of Moscow killed 26 people and injured 100 last Friday, when it derailed three cars on a high-speed train running from Moscow to St Petersburg. There are reportedly no credible claims of responsibility so far.

    The same rail line was targeted by bombers in 2007 in an attack that injured 30. Two men from Ingushetia were charged in connection to the attack. The Russians allege the attack was masterminded by Pavel Kosolapov, an ex-Russian soldier turned Islamic extremist and associate of Shamil Basayev.

    News reports state that authorities suspect Kosolapov and associates may be responsible for the recent attack.

    It is notable that militants have not struck the Russian heartland since 2004-2005, confining their attacks to the North Caucasus; this attack is leading some to ask if this is a harbinger of things to come.


    Quote Originally Posted by bourbon View Post
    Kadyrov says Doku Umarov, the emir of the Caucasus Emirate, may have been killed in a recent raid. Wait till the DNA test gets back, they have had a couple close calls with Umarov before.
    False alarm.

  20. #80
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Default more on the Nevsky Express

    BBC reports that Caucasian Mujahadeen via Kavkazcenter.com are claiming they carried out the Nevsky Express attack on the orders of Doku Umarov. Statement claims the attack is part of a broader campaign of sabotage operations targeting strategic sites in Russia, to include electricity transmission lines and oil & gas pipelines.

    A report from Ria Novosti citing St. Petersburg Emergency Control Ministry, says the attack was intended to strike two trains as they passed by each other in opposite directions. The Nevsky Express was reportedly one minute off schedule, averting greater disaster. The charge was reportedly equivalent to 7kg of TNT; I don’t know what that would do to the other train, but given the high speeds involved - it is reasonable to suggest this attack could have been much worse.

    There was also reportedly an RCIED attack that targeted responders and investigators; no one died in that bomb.

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