Seems a condensation of what's already published here:

http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/d...1005Afghan.pdf

Quote Originally Posted by gbramlet View Post
Can you imagine an Afghanistan acting as the Grand Central Station of trade between Europe and Asia? It’s almost impossible to imagine!
Yes, pretty much impossible to imagine, for excellent reasons: the whole idea is wildly optimistic and overlooks a great deal. Certainly it's possible to develop some level of regional trade (although the neighbors ain't exactly hotbeds of commerce), but the "new silk road" idea is wildly overblown and is not likely to go anywhere any time soon.

Start with a simple question: why was silk so staggeringly expensive in the days of the old silk road? Heinous terrain, horrible transport conditions, minimal infrastructure, all manner of borders and territories to cross, each with a leader who wants a cut. Things haven't changed much.

What has changed is that a businessman in Shanghai doesn't have to load up a caravan, send it into the wilds and pray it arrives. He can load up a 15,000 TEU container ship and send it to the same destination, as fast and for a whole lot less money. It's just not economically attractive to move goods on any scale by land between points that can be connected by sea.

Afghanistan's economic growth is impressive in percentage terms, but that's because the base level is exceedingly low and there's an enormous level of foreign spending, most of which generates no ROI and is not sustainable.

Not saying there's no point in developing whatever commerce and infrastructure that can be developed, but I wouldn't expect dramatic results, especially given the political obstacles in Afghanistan and in the region.