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  1. #1
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    Default Predictive Policing

    Geography & Public Safety, March 2011
    Contents
    • Police Legitimacy and Predictive Policing

    • The Predictive Policing Symposium: A Strategic Discussion

    • Proactive Policing: Using Geographic Analysis to Fight Crime

    • Experimenting with Future-Oriented Analysis at Crime Hot Spots in Minneapolis

    • Geospatial Technology Working Group (TWG): Meeting Report on Predictive Policing

    • Technical Tips

    • News Briefs

    • Geography and Public Safety Events

  2. #2
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Thumbs up

    Jed, thanks for posting this. Really interesting concept "Predictive Policing."

  3. #3
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Second city cop has some rather pungent comments about the "crystal ball" unit the CPD has been using.

    Added to help:http://www.secondcitycop.blogspot.com/ and is currently the third item 'Spring is Still Here'.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-18-2011 at 10:17 AM. Reason: Added link
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

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    Default Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Blair View Post
    Second city cop has some rather pungent comments about the "crystal ball" unit the CPD has been using.
    The Crystal Ball Unit had their legs knocked out from under them yesterday.

  5. #5
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Prediction or Analysis?

    I have watched the developing debate around attempts to predict for a long time, which has become part of the so-called intelligence-led policing model and can be cited as a gain from using analysis / data-mining.

    Taken from a paper by a US data-mining presentation:
    X PD used data mining as a tool for determining how best to position police assets in anticipation of crime. Allocating assets so as to increase police presence where a particular incident is expected, for example, might help to prevent crime. She provided two examples of what she considered to be effective data analysis. One involved the application of supervised learning to the problem of random gun fire on New Year’s Eve. Data analysis was used to identify the times and places where the most incidents occurred. This information permitted local police to deploy officers strategically, resulting in a 47% reduction in the number of reported incidents and a reduction in personnel costs.
    Link:http://www.detecter.eu/index.php?opt...&id=7&Itemid=9 within summary of the Zurich meeting on data mining.

    One of the biggest issues around prediction and analysis is the data available, there is a considerable difference between actual / reported / recorded incidents and crimes. In the UK for example to officers dismay a large proportion of house burglaries are not reported. We have learnt, sometimes painfully, that low-level quality of life issues are far more important to the public than what the police want to do, such as "fighting crime".
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-18-2011 at 10:47 AM.
    davidbfpo

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    Default Tails I win. Heads you lose.

    From your quoted article it seems that if the data mining predicts a crime and an arrest is made a crystal ball is successful. If nothing happens the crystal ball prevented a crime. Another success.

    I have seen New Years Eve shooting cut down significantly from one year to the next. This reduction has to do with putting 300 police in a complex. This deployment does not happen until the swells move into the area.

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