Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

[coffinman82]

So the government of Yemen has lost control of 6 provinces. I know of for sure Abyan lost to AQAP cause they declared it a Emirate today, and Saa'na to the Houthis... My question is this: what other provinces have been lost and to whom?

[coffinman82]

http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/...30/13976.shtml

I'm happy to announce that the brothers of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have captured Abyan province. With the support of the Tribal elders and the Muslims in the area they have captured the whole province.

The Mujahideen have seized all military bases including a weapon factory. After the Mujahideen captured the province, thousands moved on the streets to celebrate this great victory with the Mujahideen.

There are reports that the Tribal elders have declared the "Islamic Emirate of Abyan" and that the Mujahideen are preparing to move to the neighboring provinces

.

Abyan borders the province of Shabwa on the east (see Wikipedia map).

The Yemeni correspondent of the Ansar Forum also reported that on March 28 the Mujahideen liberated another town, a strategically vital Al-Khotu in the province of Shabwa. The correspondent pointed out that the Mujahideen are patrolling the streets.

Earlier, a pro-Western news-agency, Arab News, reported that puppet regime in Yemen had already lost control of several provinces, in particularly, the four important provinces of Saada, Jawf, Abyan and Shabwa.

The northern province of Saada is under control of the Houthis, and, according to the news agency, the province of Shabwa is under the control of the so-called "South Yemen Movement."

All four major districts of the province: Nessab, Al-Saaed, Haban and Maevaa are under the control of the South Yemen Movement." The groups' weapons come from former police camps.

The control of the puppet government only extends over the provincial capital, Ataq, and the province of Bayhan.

The agency also reported news that state security forces, which fought against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Shabwa, no longer exist. The US "suspects" that the world famous Islamic scholar Anwar Al-Awlaki, a US citizen, is living in Shabwa Mountains.

Meanwhile, a local puppet government news agency reported that the Mujahideen of AQAP carried out a raid against government buildings, a local television station and clashed with the military in the province of Jaar. Earlier the Mujahideen of AQAP confiscated weapons from an arms depot."

so while thats most of the info, its not complete still..

[Tukhachevskii]

So the government of Yemen has lost control of 6 provinces. I know of for sure Abyan lost to AQAP cause they declared it a Emirate today, and Saa'na to the Houthis

The Yemeni government never really "controlled" anything outside of the major cities (excepting Aden which was always a YSP stronghold, in fact the North/South divide was never dealt with); Hadramout, for instance, was never under government control (which see, for instance, Paul Dresch's Tribes, Government and History...sorry can't find a link). The "provinces" are controlled by tribal confederations who nominally pay allegance to the centre (Saleh Gov./regime) in return for largesse. That many of them may now be "abandoning" him may not simply be because they have "sided" with the "opposition" (whatever that inchoate entity may be). Tribes have a habit of hedging their bets but they will almost always follow, in Yemen, with the Hashid do. Actually, the Hashid as a bloc (they often, confusingly, threw their support behind both the GPC and Islah ath the same time!) has been lukewarm to Saleh ever since the elder al-Ahmar was replaced upon his death by his son (Sadeq Al-Ahmar) who, from what I've heard, has always hated Saleh's guts but was kept in line by his old man. AQ and it's affiliates have regularly declared their AOs as "emirates" that doesn't necessarily make them such (ever heard of the Caucasus Emirate? The fact they declared it doesn't make it "real" which is not to say such things don't pose a threat left to their own devices).

Sana'a's been lost to the houthi's? Oh, you don't mean Sa'ada by any chance?

[coffinman82]

have you seen my avatar or profile pic? of course i've heard of the Caucasus Emirate. (RIP Supyan) yes, i meant sa'dah. my bad, but i wasn't really looking for criticism or the kind of information you replied with. its not useful to me.

1. Sadah under Houthi control
2. Abyan under AQAP control
3. Jawf under Houthi control
4. Shabwa under South Yemen Movement control
5. ?
6. ?

i sound like im being an ass but im not tryin to be sorry

[davidbfpo]

As Yemen lurches along understanding what is happening and what is likely is needed, so I found these two different comments useful:

A Yemeni finale or another of Saleh’s crescendos?:http://www.opendemocracy.net/james-s...99s-crescendos

Yemen's perilous change, which looks at:

The fundamental question is whether the unrest can succeed in addressing the aspirations of Yemen’s youth, or further empower its entrenched tribal leaders.

and link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/fatima-...erilous-change

[davidbfpo]

Hardly a surprise and the details on SIGINT and AQAP's ability to adapt are not new:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...218c42ce225bbd

The last sentence is worth thinking about IMHO:

If the Yemeni government collapses, the concern is how al-Qaida, with its track record of adapting to new adversity, will adapt to new freedom.

[davidbfpo]

BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13178887

An interesting twist with the opposition being given responsibility.

[AdamG]

SANAA, Yemen -- Yemen's capital city sank toward anarchy Tuesday as rival armies fought pitched battles in a neighborhood of middle-class homes and government offices in the worst violence to sweep this city since anti-government protests began nearly four months ago.

Forces loyal to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh shelled the compound of the country's leading tribal sheikh, while forces loyal to Sheikh Sadeq al Ahmar stormed nearby government buildings.

By Tuesday evening, the Interior Ministry was in flames and the Ministry of Industry and the offices of Yemenia Airlines and the Saba news agency were severely damaged. Transiting the city was nearly impossible, and many people were trapped away from their homes as night fell.

At least 38 people were killed Tuesday, including one tribal sheikh taking part in mediation efforts at Ahmar's house.

"It is total war," said one resident of the district where Ahmar's house is located, describing both sides as leveling heavy artillery and rocket-propelled grenades at one another. "It is even worse than yesterday."

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/2...#ixzz1NKMDUZEE

[AdamG]

Armed men are reported to have taken control of a provincial capital in the unsettled south of Yemen. Government officials and residents said fighters from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) were among those who seized Zinjibar, in Abyan province. But opponents said President Ali Abdullah Saleh had given up the town to stoke fears of a militant takeover.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13585912

[AdamG]

SANA, Yemen — Yemen appeared to tip closer to all out civil war on Wednesday as government troops and opposition tribesmen battled to control key positions in the capital and foreign diplomats boarded planes to flee.

Late on Tuesday a missile struck the headquarters of General Ahmar, who has so far remained on the sidelines during the recent violence (he is not in the immediate family of Hamid al-Ahmar). The Defense Ministry denied firing the missile, and the general issued a statement confirming an attack by “land-to-land” missile without speculating on who might have fired it.

The missile attack came as state-run media reported that some of the general’s troops stormed the general prosecutor’s office, three miles west of Hasaba, looting documents. State media said that the troops had been joined by militants from Al Eman University, which has ties to Islamic radicals.

South of the capital, the city of Taiz remained in a state of lockdown Wednesday with security forces and Republican Guards moving swiftly to disperse even the smallest gatherings in the streets, residents said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/wo...imes&seid=auto

[AdamG]

About 100 armed fighters loyal to a tribal leader in Yemen have clashed with security forces on the northern outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. Tribal leaders say hundreds more are marching towards the city in support of their leader, Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar.

Clashes took place near the presidential palace and a post held by the Republican Guard, an elite army unit loyal to President Saleh and led by his son Ahmed, according to AFP.

Map here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13625811

[davidbfpo]

A succinct analysis by Ginny Hill of who matters:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13560514

Yemen is currently witnessing two parallel power shifts: a popular revolution inspired by the 'Arab spring', and an elite power struggle.

[Dayuhan]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/...186/story.html

Feud within key Yemen tribe could tear nation apart

The unrest shaking Yemen began months ago as part of the idealistic movement for democracy and political reform sweeping the Middle East. It is now a battle of money, power and egos within a single powerful clan that threatens to tear the country apart.

I don't know enough about Yemen to say whether it's true or not, but somhow the idea of an "idealistic movement for democracy and political reform" devolving into "a battle of money, power, and egos" seems fairly credible to me... though maybe I'm excessively cynical!

[AdamG]

You gotta be sh1tt1n me.

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has intensified the American covert war in Yemen, exploiting a growing power vacuum in the country to strike at militant suspects with armed drones and fighter jets, according to American officials.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/wo...l.html?_r=1&hp

[AdamG]

Ten pages on the chaos in Yemen

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/ma...k-of-hell.html

[ganulv]

Apparently Saleh wants to be in charge of things in Yemen until the day he dies. Fortunately for him any number of people are interested in helping make that happen.

[davidbfpo]

From the BBC:

US-born radical Islamist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, a key al-Qaeda leader, has been killed in Yemen, the country's defence ministry said.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15121879

No doubt much ink will be spilt on the demise. MY interest is the local impact inside the Yemen as it appears to lurch along, with neither of the many sides making gains and bloodshed notably in Sanaa.

[davidbfpo]

The succession struggle in the Yemen has not gone away, although it certainly has faded from the news reporting here, probably the impact of events in Libya and Syria.

So hat tip to FP Blog for this article, which opens with:

After being tricked into believing that Saleh would sign a Gulf Cooperation Council brokered power transfer deal three times, the international community has finally realized that Saleh has no intention of leaving power until at least 2013, the end of his official presidential term of office.

Leaving aside the machinations in the Yemen, which are covered, I was struck by this paragraph:

Short of asking for foreign military intervention, which most protesters reject outright, Yemenis have done all they can to make their struggle known to those abroad. Fully aware of their own lack of coverage in the international media, Yemenis have sought to increase their visibility in the international community from the outset of the protest movement last February by providing English language resources to Western journalists, establishing committees made up of English language speakers to issue press releases and hold press conferences, and making sure every protest sign was in both English and Arabic.

I am sadly not convinced the outside world, let alone English language speakers, are listening and or watching.

As for the freezing of President Saleh's assets abroad, nice diplomatic gesture and of little value beyond a headline.

Link:http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/pos...saleh_s_assets

[Bob's World]

Two self-serving families compete for control of Yemen. Neither represent the will of the populace or show any indication of doing anything other than continuing the very unsustainable status quo. Meanwhile a wide range of nationalist insurgent movements rise from and draw support from the populace as a whole. Both families are willing to work with the West and to profit from the control of this bit of geo-strategically key terrain. This seduces us.

Into this F'd up mix comes AQ, smelling opportunity to get after their top two interests:
1. Take down the Saudi royal family;
2. Hurt the West enough to get us to break our support to the regimes of the region that we have helped sustain for so long.

Meanwhile Saudi insurgents flee to Yemen as the first "covered and concealed position" from Saudi Arabia. One can reasonably assume that those who stay close, rather than travel to Pakistan to work with AQ there, are most focused on nationalist issues at home in Saudi Arabia. Their issues are reasonable, even if their approaches are extreme. Sadly no reasonable approaches are available to them at home, so to Yemen they go (or simply disappear at home).

AQ conducts UW in support of members of both these groups primarily, but I suspect to a number of similarly motivated men from other nations in the region as well.

US "intelligence" lumps all of this under a single banner of "AQAP." They recommend CT against the lot, with little differentiation for purpose for action. I'd give a month's retirement pay as a Special Forces Colonel for a single intel officer above the grade of O5 who could carry on a 3 minute conversation with me about insurgency without reverting to tired cliché's and saying the words "ideology" or "AQ."

This isn't rocket science, it's people science and common sense. That is far too rare a commodity it seems. (Please excuse me a little Veteran's day venting, good men are being employed far less effectively than they could be, and we owe them better.)

[davidbfpo]

During a university-level discussion on US strategy post-9/11 Yemen was cited as an example of where the USA had intervened of late, a point that I would and did contest.

Today FP Blog has a short update on the delicate mix in the Yemen, which illustrates the USA has few options currently and the locals, sorry a local, President / non-President Saleh remains in power - note, not control:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...again?page=0,1

Short of time? This sums up the situation brilliantly:

Somali refugees in Yemen are now returning to Somalia in larger numbers. Perhaps they know something that the international community doesn't.