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Thread: Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

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  1. #1
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    Quote Originally Posted by coffinman82 View Post
    So the government of Yemen has lost control of 6 provinces. I know of for sure Abyan lost to AQAP cause they declared it a Emirate today, and Saa'na to the Houthis
    The Yemeni government never really "controlled" anything outside of the major cities (excepting Aden which was always a YSP stronghold, in fact the North/South divide was never dealt with); Hadramout, for instance, was never under government control (which see, for instance, Paul Dresch's Tribes, Government and History...sorry can't find a link). The "provinces" are controlled by tribal confederations who nominally pay allegance to the centre (Saleh Gov./regime) in return for largesse. That many of them may now be "abandoning" him may not simply be because they have "sided" with the "opposition" (whatever that inchoate entity may be). Tribes have a habit of hedging their bets but they will almost always follow, in Yemen, with the Hashid do. Actually, the Hashid as a bloc (they often, confusingly, threw their support behind both the GPC and Islah ath the same time!) has been lukewarm to Saleh ever since the elder al-Ahmar was replaced upon his death by his son (Sadeq Al-Ahmar) who, from what I've heard, has always hated Saleh's guts but was kept in line by his old man. AQ and it's affiliates have regularly declared their AOs as "emirates" that doesn't necessarily make them such (ever heard of the Caucasus Emirate? The fact they declared it doesn't make it "real" which is not to say such things don't pose a threat left to their own devices).

    Sana'a's been lost to the houthi's? Oh, you don't mean Sa'ada by any chance?
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 04-01-2011 at 12:32 PM. Reason: fix links

  2. #2
    Registered User coffinman82's Avatar
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    have you seen my avatar or profile pic? of course i've heard of the Caucasus Emirate. (RIP Supyan) yes, i meant sa'dah. my bad, but i wasn't really looking for criticism or the kind of information you replied with. its not useful to me.

    1. Sadah under Houthi control
    2. Abyan under AQAP control
    3. Jawf under Houthi control
    4. Shabwa under South Yemen Movement control
    5. ?
    6. ?

    i sound like im being an ass but im not tryin to be sorry

  3. #3
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Politics and youth

    As Yemen lurches along understanding what is happening and what is likely is needed, so I found these two different comments useful:

    A Yemeni finale or another of Saleh’s crescendos?:http://www.opendemocracy.net/james-s...99s-crescendos

    Yemen's perilous change, which looks at:
    The fundamental question is whether the unrest can succeed in addressing the aspirations of Yemen’s youth, or further empower its entrenched tribal leaders.
    and link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/fatima-...erilous-change
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default AP Exclusive: al-Qaida in Yemen adapts to evade US

    Hardly a surprise and the details on SIGINT and AQAP's ability to adapt are not new:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...218c42ce225bbd

    The last sentence is worth thinking about IMHO:
    If the Yemeni government collapses, the concern is how al-Qaida, with its track record of adapting to new adversity, will adapt to new freedom.
    davidbfpo

  5. #5
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Yemen leader Saleh agrees to step down

    BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13178887

    An interesting twist with the opposition being given responsibility.
    davidbfpo

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