Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

[tequila]

President Saleh abandoned by his own tribe

SANAA, Yemen – The U.S.-backed president of Yemen suffered a devastating political blow on Sunday when his own powerful tribe demanded his resignation, joining religious leaders, young people and the country's traditional opposition in calls for an end to his three decades in power.

Massive crowds flooded cities and towns around the impoverished and volatile nation, screaming in grief and anger as they mourned dozens of protesters killed Friday when President Ali Abdullah Saleh's security forces opened fire from rooftops on a demonstration in the capital.

Saleh appeared to be trying to hold on, firing his entire Cabinet ahead of what one government official said was a planned mass resignation, but making no mention of stepping down himself. Yemen's ambassador to the United Nations and its human rights minister had announced their resignations earlier in the day.

Experts said that Saleh, who has cooperated closely with U.S. military operations against his country's branch of al-Qaida, had lost the support of every major power base in Yemen except the military ...

Interesting that the collapse in Saleh's support has come about due to indiscriminate violence on the part of regime supporters. Makes a remarkable contrast with the situation in Bahrain.

[Tukhachevskii]

The Hashid is a tribal confederation not a tribe per se. It's leader and member tribes have on many occasions in the past "abandoned" Saleh only to renegotiate their government largesse. Salih's own tribe is the Sanhan (IIRC) and he was ften mocked (when I was there) for comming from a Zaidi background.

[tequila]

And now the Army is abandoning Saleh.

The editor from the Yemen Post is on al-Jazeera saying that this is part of a negotiated deal to form a national emergency government which will allow Saleh to step down peacefully.

[davidbfpo]

Moderator's Note

There is a previous thread on Yemen, 'Yemen - a catch all thread for 2010' which was started in 2010 and has the background to the current events:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=9328

I have also moved the new thread to the Middle East area of Conflicts, where IMHO it sits better.

[Dayuhan]

The end of Saleh will not be the end of Yemen, or the end of Yemen's problems. New chapter, maybe, but I suspect that it will read much like the last one.

[Bob's World]

The end of Saleh will not be the end of Yemen, or the end of Yemen's problems. New chapter, maybe, but I suspect that it will read much like the last one.

So long as Saudi Arabia is broken, Yemen will be broken as well. I think too often we see fixing problems in Yemen as the key to solving problems in Saudi Arabia. I would argue that it is the other way around. It is only once the Saudi government has committed to the substantive and reasonable reforms desired by the moderate majority of their populace that we will see an end to the disruptive presence in Yemen of their radical minority.

It is this backward thinking by the US that has had us piling on more and more capacity building and CT efforts in Yemen over the past several years. We attack the symptoms.

Hopefully Yemen can begin a transition as well to a government that is more responsive to its populace; but with the Saudi problem looming over them, they will never be able to find true stability. As to AQ? They are just Eddie Haskell, conducting UW and stirring up trouble. The AQ problem will fade as well once these governance issues finally either evolve or revolve. Which one occurs is really up to the government. If they continue to refuse the first, the people will force the second upon them.

[Dayuhan]

So long as Saudi Arabia is broken, Yemen will be broken as well.

I'n not sure Saudi Arabia is "broken", unless we define "broken" as having a government we don't approve of. Certainly they have problems, but if having problems is being 'broken" there's a whole lot of broken countries out there, ours among them. Yemen is certainly "broken", using the traditional definition of broken = dysfunctional.

I think too often we see fixing problems in Yemen as the key to solving problems in Saudi Arabia. I would argue that it is the other way around.

Who is saying that? I don't see any causative relation either way. You could say that Yemen's instability is a problem for Saudi Arabia, but to say that Saudi Arabia's problems stem from instability in Yemen would be absurd. Saudi Arabia has a range of problems, most of them not connected in any way to Yemen. Yemen has a rather graver range of problems, most not connected in any way to Saudi Arabia. If we could wave a magic wand and transform Saudi Arabia into a functioning democracy, Yemen would still be what it is, and the other way round.

In any event we can't "fix" either of them, which makes the discussion fairly academic.

It is only once the Saudi government has committed to the substantive and reasonable reforms desired by the moderate majority of their populace that we will see an end to the disruptive presence in Yemen of their radical minority.

I don't think anyone here is in a position to speak for the moderate majority of Saudi Arabia, or for that matter any portion of Saudi Arabia. I think we'd find that there's a fair diversity of opinion in there, and one of the few things most everyone would agree on is that they don't want Americans messing in their internal affairs.

Yemen's problems aren't caused by Saudi Arabia's radical minority, or any other radical minority. Yemen is a seething mass of ethnic, sectarian and clan conflict with no clear concept of national direction or even nationhood and no cohesive "populace". Radicals may be able to exploit that situation to gain refuge and some influence, but they didn't create or cause that situation and if the radicals were no more, Yemen would still be what it is. We just wouldn't notice or care.

Hopefully Yemen can begin a transition as well to a government that is more responsive to its populace.

Unlikely, not least because there is no unitary "its populace" and the various populaces involved have no unified idea of what they want government to be... or even if they want to be part of "Yemen".

Repetitive, I know... but we can't "fix" either Yemen or Saudi Arabia, and shouldn't try.

[Surferbeetle]

Saudis prepare to abandon troublesome Yemen, By Abeer Allam in Riyadh and Roula Khalaf in London, Published: March 22 2011 20:39 | Last updated: March 22 2011 20:39 at Financial Times

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has turned to neighbour Saudi Arabia to mediate an end to a crisis that he himself has warned could turn into a “civil war” now that pivotal members of the military have defected.

But, if the strongman who has ruled over Yemen for 32 years is hoping for Saudi backing, analysts say he is likely to be disappointed.

Saudi Arabia would like to see a quick and smooth transition of power in Yemen, where Mr Saleh has been clinging to power in spite of weeks of protests and the dramatic narrowing of his support base, say analysts close to the government in Riyadh. And the kingdom is now concerned that the situation could devolve into a Libyan scenario in which Mr Saleh uses his presidential guards against the people and the army, transforming a revolt against the regime into a civil war.

Osama Nogali, Saudi foreign ministry spokesman, stressed on Tuesday that it was the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council that was mediating in the Yemen crisis.

“The kingdom is keen on consultations between all parties within the GCC frame and will not act unilaterally. Yemen is the GCC’s immediate neighbour and stability in Yemen is very important to the stability of the Arabian Peninsula.’’

[Bob's World]

I'n not sure Saudi Arabia is "broken", unless we define "broken" as having a government we don't approve of. Certainly they have problems, but if having problems is being 'broken" there's a whole lot of broken countries out there, ours among them. Yemen is certainly "broken", using the traditional definition of broken = dysfunctional.



Who is saying that? I don't see any causative relation either way. You could say that Yemen's instability is a problem for Saudi Arabia, but to say that Saudi Arabia's problems stem from instability in Yemen would be absurd. Saudi Arabia has a range of problems, most of them not connected in any way to Yemen. Yemen has a rather graver range of problems, most not connected in any way to Saudi Arabia. If we could wave a magic wand and transform Saudi Arabia into a functioning democracy, Yemen would still be what it is, and the other way round.

In any event we can't "fix" either of them, which makes the discussion fairly academic.



I don't think anyone here is in a position to speak for the moderate majority of Saudi Arabia, or for that matter any portion of Saudi Arabia. I think we'd find that there's a fair diversity of opinion in there, and one of the few things most everyone would agree on is that they don't want Americans messing in their internal affairs.

Yemen's problems aren't caused by Saudi Arabia's radical minority, or any other radical minority. Yemen is a seething mass of ethnic, sectarian and clan conflict with no clear concept of national direction or even nationhood and no cohesive "populace". Radicals may be able to exploit that situation to gain refuge and some influence, but they didn't create or cause that situation and if the radicals were no more, Yemen would still be what it is. We just wouldn't notice or care.



Unlikely, not least because there is no unitary "its populace" and the various populaces involved have no unified idea of what they want government to be... or even if they want to be part of "Yemen".

Repetitive, I know... but we can't "fix" either Yemen or Saudi Arabia, and shouldn't try.

"Broken" as in they have a government their populace does not approve of. WE like it just fine. Not all of the populace obviously, but Yemen is the convenient sanctuary the active insurgent element takes refuge in, (those who are not among the thousands languishing in Saudi prisons waiting to be "de-radicalized) and why AQ comes to Yemen conducting UW there, as the demise of the Saudi regime remains bin Laden's top priority.

Yemen has its own problems, but it will always share Saudi's problems as well in this regard. The Saudis would, I am sure, have us wage agressive CT against their nationalist insurgents hiding in Yemen in the name of the war on terrorism. Such engagement reduces the pressure on the Saudis, but increases the reasons why these same men travel to attack America as well. We are being played by all of these guys who know very well how to leverage our fear of oil disruption and terrorism in the US to get us to do what is the exact opposite of what we should be doing to get at the roots of this problem.

But no one said anything about "fixing" anyone. Our problem stems from supporting governments the local populace perceives to be broken and beyond their control.

But hey, it's always interesting to see how my comments can be twisted and taken places I surely never imagined. I am sure these will come back well-twisted as well.

[coffinman82]

So the government of Yemen has lost control of 6 provinces. I know of for sure Abyan lost to AQAP cause they declared it a Emirate today, and Saa'na to the Houthis... My question is this: what other provinces have been lost and to whom?

[coffinman82]

http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/...30/13976.shtml

I'm happy to announce that the brothers of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have captured Abyan province. With the support of the Tribal elders and the Muslims in the area they have captured the whole province.

The Mujahideen have seized all military bases including a weapon factory. After the Mujahideen captured the province, thousands moved on the streets to celebrate this great victory with the Mujahideen.

There are reports that the Tribal elders have declared the "Islamic Emirate of Abyan" and that the Mujahideen are preparing to move to the neighboring provinces

.

Abyan borders the province of Shabwa on the east (see Wikipedia map).

The Yemeni correspondent of the Ansar Forum also reported that on March 28 the Mujahideen liberated another town, a strategically vital Al-Khotu in the province of Shabwa. The correspondent pointed out that the Mujahideen are patrolling the streets.

Earlier, a pro-Western news-agency, Arab News, reported that puppet regime in Yemen had already lost control of several provinces, in particularly, the four important provinces of Saada, Jawf, Abyan and Shabwa.

The northern province of Saada is under control of the Houthis, and, according to the news agency, the province of Shabwa is under the control of the so-called "South Yemen Movement."

All four major districts of the province: Nessab, Al-Saaed, Haban and Maevaa are under the control of the South Yemen Movement." The groups' weapons come from former police camps.

The control of the puppet government only extends over the provincial capital, Ataq, and the province of Bayhan.

The agency also reported news that state security forces, which fought against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Shabwa, no longer exist. The US "suspects" that the world famous Islamic scholar Anwar Al-Awlaki, a US citizen, is living in Shabwa Mountains.

Meanwhile, a local puppet government news agency reported that the Mujahideen of AQAP carried out a raid against government buildings, a local television station and clashed with the military in the province of Jaar. Earlier the Mujahideen of AQAP confiscated weapons from an arms depot."

so while thats most of the info, its not complete still..

[Tukhachevskii]

So the government of Yemen has lost control of 6 provinces. I know of for sure Abyan lost to AQAP cause they declared it a Emirate today, and Saa'na to the Houthis

The Yemeni government never really "controlled" anything outside of the major cities (excepting Aden which was always a YSP stronghold, in fact the North/South divide was never dealt with); Hadramout, for instance, was never under government control (which see, for instance, Paul Dresch's Tribes, Government and History...sorry can't find a link). The "provinces" are controlled by tribal confederations who nominally pay allegance to the centre (Saleh Gov./regime) in return for largesse. That many of them may now be "abandoning" him may not simply be because they have "sided" with the "opposition" (whatever that inchoate entity may be). Tribes have a habit of hedging their bets but they will almost always follow, in Yemen, with the Hashid do. Actually, the Hashid as a bloc (they often, confusingly, threw their support behind both the GPC and Islah ath the same time!) has been lukewarm to Saleh ever since the elder al-Ahmar was replaced upon his death by his son (Sadeq Al-Ahmar) who, from what I've heard, has always hated Saleh's guts but was kept in line by his old man. AQ and it's affiliates have regularly declared their AOs as "emirates" that doesn't necessarily make them such (ever heard of the Caucasus Emirate? The fact they declared it doesn't make it "real" which is not to say such things don't pose a threat left to their own devices).

Sana'a's been lost to the houthi's? Oh, you don't mean Sa'ada by any chance?

[coffinman82]

have you seen my avatar or profile pic? of course i've heard of the Caucasus Emirate. (RIP Supyan) yes, i meant sa'dah. my bad, but i wasn't really looking for criticism or the kind of information you replied with. its not useful to me.

1. Sadah under Houthi control
2. Abyan under AQAP control
3. Jawf under Houthi control
4. Shabwa under South Yemen Movement control
5. ?
6. ?

i sound like im being an ass but im not tryin to be sorry

[davidbfpo]

As Yemen lurches along understanding what is happening and what is likely is needed, so I found these two different comments useful:

A Yemeni finale or another of Saleh’s crescendos?:http://www.opendemocracy.net/james-s...99s-crescendos

Yemen's perilous change, which looks at:

The fundamental question is whether the unrest can succeed in addressing the aspirations of Yemen’s youth, or further empower its entrenched tribal leaders.

and link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/fatima-...erilous-change

[davidbfpo]

Hardly a surprise and the details on SIGINT and AQAP's ability to adapt are not new:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...218c42ce225bbd

The last sentence is worth thinking about IMHO:

If the Yemeni government collapses, the concern is how al-Qaida, with its track record of adapting to new adversity, will adapt to new freedom.

[davidbfpo]

BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13178887

An interesting twist with the opposition being given responsibility.

[AdamG]

SANAA, Yemen -- Yemen's capital city sank toward anarchy Tuesday as rival armies fought pitched battles in a neighborhood of middle-class homes and government offices in the worst violence to sweep this city since anti-government protests began nearly four months ago.

Forces loyal to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh shelled the compound of the country's leading tribal sheikh, while forces loyal to Sheikh Sadeq al Ahmar stormed nearby government buildings.

By Tuesday evening, the Interior Ministry was in flames and the Ministry of Industry and the offices of Yemenia Airlines and the Saba news agency were severely damaged. Transiting the city was nearly impossible, and many people were trapped away from their homes as night fell.

At least 38 people were killed Tuesday, including one tribal sheikh taking part in mediation efforts at Ahmar's house.

"It is total war," said one resident of the district where Ahmar's house is located, describing both sides as leveling heavy artillery and rocket-propelled grenades at one another. "It is even worse than yesterday."

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/2...#ixzz1NKMDUZEE

[AdamG]

Armed men are reported to have taken control of a provincial capital in the unsettled south of Yemen. Government officials and residents said fighters from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) were among those who seized Zinjibar, in Abyan province. But opponents said President Ali Abdullah Saleh had given up the town to stoke fears of a militant takeover.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13585912

[AdamG]

SANA, Yemen — Yemen appeared to tip closer to all out civil war on Wednesday as government troops and opposition tribesmen battled to control key positions in the capital and foreign diplomats boarded planes to flee.

Late on Tuesday a missile struck the headquarters of General Ahmar, who has so far remained on the sidelines during the recent violence (he is not in the immediate family of Hamid al-Ahmar). The Defense Ministry denied firing the missile, and the general issued a statement confirming an attack by “land-to-land” missile without speculating on who might have fired it.

The missile attack came as state-run media reported that some of the general’s troops stormed the general prosecutor’s office, three miles west of Hasaba, looting documents. State media said that the troops had been joined by militants from Al Eman University, which has ties to Islamic radicals.

South of the capital, the city of Taiz remained in a state of lockdown Wednesday with security forces and Republican Guards moving swiftly to disperse even the smallest gatherings in the streets, residents said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/wo...imes&seid=auto

[AdamG]

About 100 armed fighters loyal to a tribal leader in Yemen have clashed with security forces on the northern outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. Tribal leaders say hundreds more are marching towards the city in support of their leader, Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar.

Clashes took place near the presidential palace and a post held by the Republican Guard, an elite army unit loyal to President Saleh and led by his son Ahmed, according to AFP.

Map here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13625811