Syria is very divided in ethnic and religious groups, almost as bad as Lebanon.
Assad's minority will feel the urge to emigrate when Assad falls, and I suspect the bigger factions will dominate the country "democratically". This requires that they're united (not split in religious extremists and others themselves);
the new regime will likely be ethnically dominated, not religiously or ideologically.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra...#Ethnic_groups
I'd expect a Sunni Arab majority gaining control; their religious radicals would likely fail to be a majority nation-wide.
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