Syria: a civil war (closed)

[Tukhachevskii]

... the UNSC is working out a resolution on Syria. 300-400 already dead but not to expect any quick action from the UNSC.

I would (if I were the US president ) give the Russians until the end of the month to reign in the Syrian regime or will offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

The momentum is building nicely...

If you were President of any country I would be afraid, very afraid.


Momentum? For what? Do you really think the Russians are going to take pointers (let alone orders) from the Yanks? Do you really think the Russians will get overflight rights from the Turks or the Georgians? Since when do te Russians care about protecting anyone else? They're old school as I am and don't see the point in intervention (humantiarian or otherwise unless absolutely necessary to maintain global/regional order a la Burke; they and I are adherents of Luttwak on that point, just see Libya).OTOH, in your world (which, IMO, is a completely different dimension) who would protect the Syrians from the Russian attempts to protect them?! (insert approproate emoticon)

[JMA]

Momentum? For what? Do you really think the Russians are going to take pointers (let alone orders) from the Yanks? Do you really think the Russians will get overflight rights from the Turks or the Georgians? Since when do te Russians care about protecting anyone else? They're old school as I am and don't see the point in intervention (humantiarian or otherwise unless absolutely necessary to maintain global/regional order a la Burke; they and I are adherents of Luttwak on that point, just see Libya).OTOH, in your world (which, IMO, is a completely different dimension) who would protect the Syrians from the Russian attempts to protect them?! (insert approproate emoticon)

Momentum for a revolution and the ouster of the regime.

Remember the option you did not see as likely:

... but I am certain that things aren't as clear cut as statements/commentators that proclaim "Asad will fall" predict them to be.

Maybe you want to reassess your position on Syria?

You misinterpret my statement (seems to happen often and I use misinterpret as opposed to misrepresent).

What did you think I meant by the Russians reigning in the regime in a few days (by the end of the month)? Was it not obvious that given the time frame I was suggesting political and diplomatic pressure? Now why did you jump to the conclusion that I was suggesting the Russians should intervene militarily in Syria?

So what the West should do (not holding my breath on the US doing much) is to say to the Syrian people - "how can we help you free yourself from the death-grip of this brutal regime?" - and see what comes out and be prepare to act.

Keep all the options open and one can always say to the Russians - "you had your chance to contribute, but you blew it."

With regard to Luttwak what he explains as THE EASY AND RELIABLE WAY OF DEFEATING ALL INSURGENCIES EVERYWHERE as the last section of this article is correct. But who has the will to do this? Who will be willing to out-terrorize the insurgents?

Mugabe, Sri Lanka, Gaddafi, China, etc etc but it is not an option for any western democracy. In Rhodesia we knew this as "the African Way" but it was not an option there either.

So if it is not an option what is the next best other option? This pop-centric crap they are trying in Afghanistan? Or what?

[AdamG]

Some soldiers reportedly refused to open fire against civilians in Deraa today, sparking clashes between units. A divided military could prove the undoing of Assad's regime.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...amid-crackdown

[JMA]

... as anticipated (by me anyway) Russia blocked any UNSC condemnation of the Syrian regime.

Push in U.N. for Criticism of Syria Is Rejected

Watch the BRICS nations as they start acting as a "block".

What to do now? More sanctions and this:

UNHRC to hold special Syria session Friday

“The international community has been shocked by the killing of hundreds of civilians in connection with peaceful political protests [in Syria] in the past week,” said US Ambassador to the UNHRC, Eileen Donahoe, on Wednesday.

Watch the voting on this one.

[davidbfpo]

We are aware that one of Gadafy's two active brigades is commanded by a son, so accordint to this is the brigade in Deraa:

Bashar has decided that Deraa is the epicentre of the revolt and so has deployed the military.

Not any military, but the 4th Armoured Division commanded by his brother Maher.

From:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...epression.aspx

So Adam G's previous post about dissent @ Deraa is even more interesting.

From the very limited, private film clips available and from my armchair I always wonder why heavy armour is preferred, not APCs and infantry. Nor am I impressed when the tank commander looses off a few shots from his heavy calibre MG, shots that will hit something.

[AdamG]

If you liked that, you'll love this -

Some 200 members of Syria's ruling Baath party are reported to have resigned over the violent crackdown against pro-democracy demonstrations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13219853
see also
http://www.economist.com/node/186212...21246&fsrc=rss

[Rex Brynen]

We are aware that one of Gadafy's two active brigades is commanded by a son, so accordint to this is the brigade in Deraa:

While Maher has certainly been present at Darʿa and may have assumed command responsibilities (after all, who says no to an Asad?) he isn't the regular commander of the 4th AD, but rather commander of the Presidential Guard.

[Tukhachevskii]

Maybe you want to reassess your position on Syria?

Yep, but only this bit;

Asad knows he has to act carefully (they'll be no repeat of Hama, nor need there be).

As for this...

You misinterpret my statement (seems to happen often and I use misinterpret as opposed to misrepresent).

I will not actually take the time and effort to reply to you with the courtesy I try to show most people I disagree with. But as you seem to have a "beef" with anyone who doesn't follow the JMA party line (whatever that may be) I can't see the point.

Out