Originally Posted by
TheCurmudgeon
Much of what I have added in the last few days was to raise awareness that Syria is no Tunisia, or Libya, or Egypt, or even Yemen or Iran. There are two reasons for the distinctions.
First, the length of time this has gone on. It has been almost a year-and-a-half since this all began. Plenty of time for it to morph into something other than what the malcontents in Syria originally intended. The transition should have been expected. It is hard to tell yet what will happen in Tunisia and Libya but Egypt is clearly leaning towards an Islamic state. I would suspect that the others will follow (or maybe they are leading, just can't tell). In any case, those on the battlefield are changing the character of the fight. It is very possible that some of the brigades will be directly controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, or Al Qaeda (yeah, the last one is a stretch, but who can tell for sure). In any case, the war it is a changin.
Second, the number of players who have a real stake in the outcome, either in Syria or in the UN, would appear to outnumber those in the previous revolutions. Russia has a military instillation in Syria that is part of their long term military strategy to keep access to the Mediterranean. Turkey is supplying arms to the rebels and wants to limit Kurdish influence in the final state. Iran fears losing an alley in the fight against the Zionists. Israel fears another fundamentalist Islamic state on its borders. Everyone is interested in what will happen to the alleged WMDs. So again, the risk here is not so much that there will be a civil war with the associated humanitarian ramifications, human rights violations, and war crimes. I am a cynic. What happens in Syria stays in Syria (at least until after the war is over). The risk is that what happens if Syria triggers events beyond its borders.
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